If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal... - Page 23 - MensTennisForums.com

 
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post #331 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-13-2013, 02:15 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

I can see Nole being #1 throughout 2013.

Federer isn't making a run for it (skipping tourneys, olderroring).
Nadal is making a comeback and we don't know what level he'll play at.
Murray is not very good on clay.

Who else? Tomic?

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post #332 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-13-2013, 02:24 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sri View Post
I can see Nole being #1 throughout 2013.

Federer isn't making a run for it (skipping tourneys, olderroring).
Nadal is making a comeback and we don't know what level he'll play at.
Murray is not very good on clay.

Who else? Tomic?
Seems more likely that Djokovic wil stay no1.

But I can see either Murray as well as Federer, having a small chance to win 2 slams this season and with those points it will be close again.

As for Nadal, who knows really? he can go in I am not the favorite mode Federer, Djokovic are best of all time etc and still win everything on clay plus wimbledon, and come close.
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post #333 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-13-2013, 05:56 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by 5555 View Post
In my previous posts I demonstrated that I do not have to prove it.
Your response is that the statement "There is more reason to believe Sampras than Roy Emerson" does not require such proof. I have agreed with this.

My point is that it makes no difference whether this statement is true or not. Even if it is true, it doesn't give you any reason to believe what Sampras says is correct. Just like the statement: "There is more reason to believe my prediction than the guy in the lunatic asylum's" doesn't give you any reason to believe my prediction is correct.
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post #334 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-14-2013, 12:54 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by Yolita View Post
Maybe you don't know this: but it is mathematically impossible for Novak to lose his #1 before the 13th of May.
yes, and it guarantees him minimum 80 weeks at number 1, same number as Hewitt.

Next steps are Agassi at 101 weeks and Nadal at 102.

Borg at 109 is clearly underrated because the rankings in his time were highly contestable which put Connors at number 1 during a long time when Borg was seen as the number 1 by many. According to my estimations, 165 would be more reasonable for Borg (and it's quite a conservative estimation : I'm far from calling Borg number 1 as often as people did call him ; I have Connors at 202 rather than 268 as well, calling him number 1 in a few periods when he was not in 1982, and not calling him number 1 more often in the 70s even though I count him as number 1 in 1975 rather than Ashe).

useless old guy
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post #335 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-19-2013, 03:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by Singularity View Post
Your response is that the statement "There is more reason to believe Sampras than Roy Emerson" does not require such proof. I have agreed with this.
Do you agree that you were wrong when you stated I must prove Sampras has "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables"?
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post #336 of 742 (permalink) Old 02-19-2013, 05:33 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by 5555 View Post
Do you agree that you were wrong when you stated I must prove Sampras has "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables"?
Not at all. Let me present your two options:

A.) You choose to believe Sampras' prediction is true, or likely to be true. To justify this belief, you must prove Sampras' credentials as a predictor. That he has in other words, "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables".

B.) You choose not to believe in Sampras' prediction. In other words Sampras' prediction ability is of no help to us, here. Selecting this option ends the debate.

The statement "There is more reason to believe Sampras than Roy Emerson" can be true if you select either A or B. Hence, it settles nothing. Eg. it could be that we have more reason to believe than Sampras than Roy Emerson, while having no reason to believe Sampras' prediction. Think about the lunatic asylum example.

What you need to do is pick one of the two options.
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post #337 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 02:36 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by Singularity View Post
Not at all.
Again, I quote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Singularity View Post
Now we have established that being a "tennis expert" does not make you "tennis predictor" and thus does not qualify you to "make accurate predictions about future tennis events". This means that in order to rely on Sampras to "make accurate predictions about future tennis events", proving that he has a high level practical understanding of tennis, is not sufficient.

You must also prove that he has "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables". You have not done this.
You've stated that I must prove the above as if I said I believe Sampras' prediction is true (what I meant to say was that if I have to choose between him and Roy Emerson, my pick is Sampras which does not mean I believe his prediction is true).

Therefore, you were wrong when you stated I must prove that he has "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables".

Last edited by Alaricus; 03-04-2013 at 05:49 PM.
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post #338 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 09:22 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

Quote:
Originally Posted by 5555 View Post
Again, I quote:
You've stated that I must prove the above as if I said I believe Sampras' prediction is true (what I meant to say was that if I have to choose between him and Roy Emerson, my pick is Sampras which does not mean I believe his prediction is true).

Therefore, you were wrong when you stated I must prove that he has "a good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables".
I said that you must prove this "in order to rely on Sampras to make accurate predictions about future tennis events". So even in the text you quote it's clear that proof is conditional on your belief in Sampras as a predictor.

I'll repeat my argument again:

If you believe in Sampras' prediction, you need to prove that he has a "good understanding of past statistical trends, and the ability to take into account unknown variables".

If you don't, then Sampras is of no use to us, here, and it is quite irrelevant whether we have more reason to believe him than Roy Emerson, because we have no reason to believe either prediction.

So, are you selecting option A or option B?
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post #339 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 09:38 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

This bit is absolutely amazing:

Quote:
In just over two years on tour, Djokovic has posted a combined 157-18 singles record with 18 singles titles. That includes five Grand Slam singles titles during that span (he has six for his career).



Novak Djokovic nº1!

The Golden Era of Novak: Australian Open * Dubai * Indian Wells * Miami * Belgrade * Madrid * Rome * Wimbledon * Montreal * US Open * Abu Dhabi * Australian Open * Miami * Toronto * China * Shanghai * World Tour Finals 2012 * Australian Open 2013 * Dubai * Montecarlo * Beijing * Shanghai * Paris * WTF * Indian Wells * Miami * Rome * WIMBLEDON 2014 * AUSSIE OPEN 2015
Federer to Nole: "Amazing year. Amazing tournament. Amazing match. You are THE BEST!"
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post #340 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 10:36 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

That is quite amazing. Still nothing compared to 2004-2006 when Federer went 247-15 with 8/12 Slams with 34 titles.
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post #341 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 10:50 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by Kyle_Johansen View Post
That is quite amazing. Still nothing compared to 2004-2006 when Federer went 247-15 with 8/12 Slams with 34 titles.
The competition is a lot more intense these days. Fed had little real competition in that era.

Novak Djokovic nº1!
The Golden Era of Novak: Australian Open * Dubai * Indian Wells * Miami * Belgrade * Madrid * Rome * Wimbledon * Montreal * US Open * Abu Dhabi * Australian Open * Miami * Toronto * China * Shanghai * World Tour Finals 2012 * Australian Open 2013 * Dubai * Montecarlo * Beijing * Shanghai * Paris * WTF * Indian Wells * Miami * Rome * WIMBLEDON 2014 * AUSSIE OPEN 2015 * Indian Wells * Miami
Federer to Nole: "Amazing year. Amazing tournament. Amazing match. You are THE BEST!"
Either you get him or you don't!
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post #342 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 11:06 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle_Johansen View Post
That is quite amazing. Still nothing compared to 2004-2006 when Federer went 247-15 with 8/12 Slams with 34 titles.
No need to implicitly discredit Djokovic's performance over the past two years by bringing Federer, whom this thread is not about (!), into it...

...

Djokovic has been quite exceptional over the past two years. He is pretty good to watch too, mostly. Beautiful forehand in motion, and a devastating backhand DTL. We await a youngster to truly challenge his domination on HC. We're still waiting...

Last edited by Han Solo; 03-04-2013 at 11:08 PM. Reason: name
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post #343 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 11:17 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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Originally Posted by Kyle_Johansen View Post
That is quite amazing. Still nothing compared to 2004-2006 when Federer went 247-15 with 8/12 Slams with 34 titles.
Owned
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post #344 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 11:18 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

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The competition is a lot more intense these days. Fed had little real competition in that era.
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post #345 of 742 (permalink) Old 03-04-2013, 11:24 PM
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Re: If Djokovic stays the No. 1 until October, he will overtake Nadal...

He's playing every surface. He's no fool from 2001-6.
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