Problem with your logic that you think everything depends from Olderer. Not really. If Nole plays to his best with deep balls and constant good returns no matter what Olderer does he gona be toast. I never said Olderer isnt a huge threat to Nole.
Djokovic-Federer isn't a "100%" match-up like let's say Nadal-Federer on slow clay or indoor hard, it depends on who plays the better tennis in a given day, that's why it is fun to see, because there isn't a big match-up issue between the two of them and usually whomever hits his best form wins.
Of course it also depends on the conditions, Nole has the advantage in slow-medium HC and clay, Roger has the advantage in grass & indoor hard, that said, both men are the huge favorites to win this tournament, Murray a distant third TBH.
Just don't count out the old man, we are talking about a dude that has played this tournament for 11 straight years
and has only lost 7 matches during that period, winning 40.