What are the odds Murray finishes 2012 #1...
I received good responses for Rafa possibly finishing 2012 #5, so now I ask what are the odds of Murray finishing 2012 #1?
Top 4's points earned so far in 2012 only: Djokovic 9,910; Rogie 8920 (just earned 15 for DC); Rafa 6,840; and Murray 6,730.
How many points each can add on for 2012 based on what they're scheduled to play...
Djokovic can add a total of 4,000 points (Beijing 500, Shanghai 1,000, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).
Rogie can also add a total of 4,000 points (Shanghai 1,000, Basel 500, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).
Murray can add a total of 4,500 points (Tokyo 500, Shanghai 1,000, Basel 500, Paris 1,000, and London 1,500).
Situation: Currently Murray is 3,180 behind Djokovic and 2,190 behind Rogie. Take what Murray can earn up to if he wins all 5 events (4,500) and subtract the number of points Murray is behind Djokovic and Rogie (4,500-3,180 and 4,500-2,190) and you get 1,320 and 2,310; this means that if Djokovic earns more than 1,320 points and Rogie more than 2,310 points the rest of 2012 then one or both of them keep Murray away from #1.
My opinion: Will Djokovic win more than 1,320 points the rest of 2012? I say absolutely yes unless he plays like he did last year and I think he'll do much better in 2012. Will Rogie win more than 2.310 points in 2012? I tend to think not, if he even plays all 4 events in total, he'll probably not do as well as last year, but well enough and Murray isn't winning all 4,500 points. Therefore I say Murray finishes #2 at absolute best, but most likely finishes 2012 #3.