If Murray successfully defends Tokyo and Shanghai...
and if he can make at least the finals of Paris and WTF while Federer does not defend his titles
He will be #1 at the end of the year.
However, Djokovic will have something to say about that since he has virtually 0 points to defend until the end of the year.
In my opinion, I think Djokovic is going to pull it out.
Federer will not be able to defend his two big titles and Djokovic has no points to defend except for a semifinal in Basel.
This post is all kinds of wrong. Murray is over 2000 points behind Federer in the RACE for the year, so he'll need a fair few titles and an almost no-show from RF to get to #2. He's a further 3000 points behind Djokovic, so no chance for #1.
Djokovic also has QF points to defend in Bercy and a win from the WTF.