I'll start by saying a few things about me, I haven't made many posts as I'm on more at work than home but two things, firstly I'm an Andy Murray fan but realistic with it. Yes, I believe he is capable of winning a couple of slams. But also believe he's behind the other three just now & the way Djokovic has progressed, I believe he will always remain in front of Andy 'overall'.
Secondly, I've watched tennis since the late 80's early 90's. My favourite player was Andre Agassi, I have never proclaimed to have great tactical insight. I have never played, coached or been coached at any level. All of my opinions are based on watching the sport, not on tennis I.Q or experience of playing.
As much as I don't believe Andy will ever take over from Novak/Rafa/Fed as the best player in the world (there can be only 1
)I do think he has the game to trouble Novak & throw him off guard. The key, so often when Andy plays those two is taking the right ball on, & not waiting too long, as both those players turn defence into offence better than anyone IMO so they are putting pressure on the opposition to constantly finish points off earlier than they wish to do. Andy's ability to mix paces, spins etc do bother Novak more than going after him with pace all the time. Andy's return game gives Novak headaches as well, and vice versa. Novak (like Andy) FS % can drop. I believe JMDP created 3 break points on a slow surface against a player who served at 57%. When Andy plays Novak, if Novak serves at those % I believe Andy can create anything from 10-20 BP (vice versa again) similar to the Australian Open. If chances are created, you can win the match. Of course Novak will create & take chance, that's the nature of the game but on slower surfaces IMO Nole knows against most players he'll create more chances than them, even Rafa takes 2nd serves deeper & sometimes passes up chances to get advantages in rallies. Andy takes on Nole's serve as much as possible & puts pressure on, only my opinio but a combination of variet, depth, aggression & return games makes Andy dangerous. But make no mistake as a Murray fan, everything I've just said Nole can do to Andy. It's who does it better on the day that will decide the winner.
So I think Andy would have more chance because I actually do think variety/good return troubles Nole more than heavy hitting, due to how well he absorbes it. Andy's variety was excellent in Aus Open, his forehand worked well but more with angles, and pace at the right time rather than just blasting ball after ball.
I really believe Nole respects and appreciates Andy's game, as it's more complex. That can cause Andy issues as his variety/options can lead to wrong decisions at times butr overall, I think complexity overcomes power against Nole.
Just my take, but Novak is IMHO the best player on the planet but he is beatable. I think longer term, Andy's more rounded hame will get him his desired results where JMDP, Berdych etc will try to beat Nole the same way all the time.
Unfortunately on this occasion, I actually think Tomas will defeat Andy in 4 sets. Andy's balance of offence/defence against Berych worries me, too passive he will get crushed but he doesn't play aggressive day to day tennis to believe he can match Tomas on the baseline rally in rally out.
Novak to take Title in 3 sets!!!