If for whatever reason, he can't play till after the Australian Open, he probably will fall out of the top 4.
From my calculations will lose around 1800 points, at least. I'm not sure about his Davis cup 150 points and don't understand why he has them listed for Sept 14 2012
as he obviously didn't play (hasn't played Davis Cup at all in 2012), and there is no drop date. Does anyone know about this?
Date Tournament Round Points Drop Date
14.09.2012 Davis Cup - 150
In any event, if no return by AO he loses:
0300 - Tokyo
0090 - Shanghai
0200 - London-World Tour Finals
1200 - Australian Open
0045 - Halle-Doha (Doha drops, assume Halle will be countable)
1835 Total dropped
? Davis Cup 150 Edit: (any points from 2011 DC should drop after 2012 final?)
7385 - Current
-1835 - Dropped:
5550 After AO (still includes 150 Davis Cup pts)
5400 After AO (Davis Cup pts dropped)
Anyway, I don't think he can drop below 5-8 in the rankings no matter what, mostly on the strength of his clay season 4590 points. In fact, I think he could play only on clay and if he wins most everything, he could comfortably stay in the top 8, maybe even stay at #4 if he includes the South/Central American clay in his schedule.