3 - I think
Olympics - mega favorite there - best surface
USO - hopefully gets a favorable draw and peaks towards the end of the tournament
Basel - Home court, indoor, straightforward
He will do well at WTF but I feel Djokovic and others will fight harder this time and he may not as motivated if #1 ranking is locked up by then.
I love how confident the Federer fans suddenly are due to one Wimbledon - and even that wasn't a dominant Wimbledon win.
He could have lost to Benneatau - beat a subpar Novak and then, yes he played well vs Murray, but it was Murray in his home slam final. Does that mean he'll suddenly be overwhelming favourite to beat Novak at the US Open? Don't think so...
Federer hasn't won the US Open since 2008 - actually his biggest drought of all the slams. Murray and Novak are massive threats on that surface. Nadal is always a threat to Federer, even if it is a fast HC - Arthur Ashe has no roof, much to Nadal's pleasure I'm sure! Fed is second favourite or joint with Novak perhaps but no way a lock for US Open.
Same with Basel - Murray's playing, it's best of 3, Murray's good indoors. Are we saying Murray has no shot at all? I don't think so. It's not a slam - Murray can beat anyone on his day. I personally think if Fed gets 2 more titles it's been an unbelievable season for him - he's had some luck go his way (both the French Open and Wimbledon draws were really laughable - I mean Goffin, Mahut, Malisse - who the hell was Fed facing?!), not always played good tennis but made it through to the business end. But Novak, Murray etc. will be switched on till the end of the season and I think will be grabbing some of the big titles.