How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold? - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:22 AM Thread Starter
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How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Since CD, the master of doublespeak and double standards here, on MTF, asked for a next question in the Fed. vs Nad in slams in the future thread, here it is, another hot topic of the day (imho, of course):

Now we know officially that Rafa is offline for almost 6 weeks in a row. His followers (and also a big bunch of rational posters) always argued that, usually, his results from Canada 'till the end of the season are most of the times sub-par, judging by Rafa's standards, due to fatigue and surfaces. Fatigue was, though, mentioned as the main issue. And usually (except 2009) was mentioned on a rational basis.

2009 season begged to differ in this regard, having in the front row of debate the injury argument. Now, in 2012, we don't know how serious he is/was injured, but missing the Olympics is a very bad sign in this regard. Anyway, 6 weeks should provide enough rest and, possibly, enough medical care.

Taking into account all of the above, how do you think Rafa's remainder of 2012 will unfold? Sub-par north American HC season or something else (do you think a 2nd USOpen victory is possible)? A remarkable indoor season at the end of the year or the usual stuff? Will he win his first TMC?

What are your hopes (as a fan/non-fan) and your reasonable thoughts (as a reasonable MTF poster) regarding Rafa's last 5 months of 2012?

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...

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post #2 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:29 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

I don't think this will be like 2009 -- then he had tendinitis from early on in the year - even in Australia (Rotterdam was terrible but he played through pain...) - he didn't listen to his body and really wrecked his year. The confidence took a long time to get back.

This time the problem, though taking a bit longer to heal than usual, is one he knows well by now. He has an existing plan to deal with it (the PRP injections, massage and rest) - it's a case of waiting it out. Then he missed a grand slam worth 2000 points and had lost RG in the 4th round -- this time he won RG for the 7th time having beaten his greatest current rival for the third time this season. Missing the Olympics hurts because of the loss of the chance to carry the flag, not the competition itself as he already has a medal -- the points he's missing are a maximum of 750 - nothing like that 2009 Wimby withdrawal.

So mentally he's in a different place (better family situation too) and he knows his body and injuries better. Once he gets over the disappointment I think he'll train hard and be a contender at the US Open and at least one of the HC masters. If anything he'll have more motivation for the 2nd half of the year than the last few years where he was really burnt out. Of course Nole, Fed and Andy have slightly better chances overall on HCs, but Nadal once he's in the groove will always have chances. I think he'll have a better 2nd half than in 2009 or 2011.

My hopes, as a fan, is the US Open title. My realistic expectations are SFs at least of the US Open and perhaps finally the WTF - he has to go all out at some point and target it like he targeted the US Open - why not this year? End the year on a high after some setbacks. He can play good tennis on that surface (see 2010 match vs Murray) - just needs to work hard!

Last edited by Ash86; 07-20-2012 at 05:34 AM.
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post #3 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:41 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Well, from what I can see I think it most likely that he gets a normal second half of the season. Normal for him.
As his clay season was more or less standard, his exhaustion level should be similar to previous non-Olympic years. Any gain from a short Wimbledon looks to have been wiped out by pain and injury.
Only five of his 50 titles has come in the tournaments left in his season, two in Toronto, one in US Open, one in Tokyo and one in Madrid back when it was in Shanghai's current slot. So that's five titles from seven seasons. Normal would then be one or zero titles. His best chance should be Toronto, assuming he is healthy then, both because it is historically his best remaining tournament and also because the draw is expected to be easy - some top players are bound to drop out if the Olympics go well for them. US Open will be the second best chance, as he is certainly one to peak for slams.
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post #4 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:42 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

nobody really knows what is going to happen at this point.

i will take the davis cup win for spain and call it a year if it means he will be healthy, fit, hungry, and ready for 2013.

for me anyway its health before anything. i really dont give a fuck about anything else.

good health and longevity in the sport is the most important thing to the real sports fans.

the rest should take care of itself. he is good for 2-3 more french opens and quite possibly another wimbledon.

that is more than enough glory for one man with terrible knees.

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post #5 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:44 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoica View Post
Since CD, the master of doublespeak and double standards here, on MTF, asked for a next question in the Fed. vs Nad in slams in the future thread, here it is, another hot topic of the day (imho, of course):

Now we know officially that Rafa is offline for almost 6 weeks in a row. His followers (and also a big bunch of rational posters) always argued that, usually, his results from Canada 'till the end of the season are most of the times sub-par, judging by Rafa's standards, due to fatigue and surfaces. Fatigue was, though, mentioned as the main issue. And usually (except 2009) was mentioned on a rational basis.

2009 season begged to differ in this regard, having in the front row of debate the injury argument. Now, in 2012, we don't know how serious he is/was injured, but missing the Olympics is a very bad sign in this regard. Anyway, 6 weeks should provide enough rest and, possibly, enough medical care.

Taking into account all of the above, how do you think Rafa's remainder of 2012 will unfold? Sub-par north American HC season or something else (do you think a 2nd USOpen victory is possible)? A remarkable indoor season at the end of the year or the usual stuff? Will he win his first TMC?

What are your hopes (as a fan/non-fan) and your reasonable thoughts (as a reasonable MTF poster) regarding Rafa's last 5 months of 2012?
are you sure you are not talking about yourself?

i am the most objective person here.

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post #6 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:46 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

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My hopes, as a fan, is the US Open title. My realistic expectations are SFs at least of the US Open and perhaps finally the WTF - he has to go all out at some point and target it like he targeted the US Open - why not this year? End the year on a high after some setbacks. He can play good tennis on that surface (see 2010 match vs Murray) - just needs to work hard!
WTF is a reasonable target. He will achieve it, maybe even this year. This would be the last accolade on a great CV (only Agassi managed to win nearly everything until now: all slams, DC, WTF, 7/9 AMS, Olympic singles Gold). I must admit that, if it's to happen, I hope it will not mean going through Federer to do it

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...
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post #7 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:48 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Well the only positive thing for Rafa is that he will be alot more rested now than he usually is. This might finally give him a shot at the WTF. Though this being his worst surface, with the toughest competition will still make it a hard one to win.

It is very hard to predict really. If he can squeeze in a few wins he will gain confidence, and he will be a threat for the major tournaments. If he loses 1 or 2 early rounds, he will be in trouble. Rafa is as much a confidence player as anyone and the injury will probably make him doubt a bit the first few matches. Either way, it will be tough for him.
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post #8 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:57 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

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Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
i am the most objective person here.
Of course, this title could not go to a statistician or some Hewitt-lover, without any personnal feeling involved in the nowadays tennis rivalries. It must be you

I must say that your efforts for showing objectivity are commendable. As long as all the posters would try to sound fair as much as you try, MTF would be a better place.

But human nature will always resurface our true feelings. When one loves a tennis player that is continuously mentioned in the present debates (and I am not talking especially about you and Rafa, could be me with Federer, or, since I am low profile poster here, let's say masterclass and Federer), no matter how much that poster tries, he will never be able to completely hide his true feelings. And I think it's not desirable to do it.

So, as a conclusion, why try so hard to impose such a double standard? To achieve "MTF" peace? To keep the tards at bay? To have a classy image? It beats me, I must admit...I just don't get it.

Sorry for the long off-topic post.

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...
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post #9 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 05:59 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

I think it will go as well as can be expected. Right now, he's probably sitting at home during the day eating Bon bons and catching up on Spanish soap operas. At night, I suspect he's having a few too many and chasing as much tail as he can when Lalo's not looking. Ah, the tortured life of a 26 year old tennis superstar.
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post #10 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 06:39 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

I wonder what is going through Rafa's head. Pretty interesting.

Last year after the U.S. Open he looked in disbelief because it seemed as if Djokovic had completely figured him out (I don't blame him either if such a thing happened to me, it's not easy to stomach to back to back final losses).

Then comes the Australian Open and he really grit the hell out of that final, really pulled some ridiculous tricks out of the hat, but choked it away on a match point to a mentally solid Djokovic who just loves breaking opponents to death. He was happy that he at least was able to keep the final competitive. Which showed improvement. He was a little bit upset that he choked it away because it would have looked nice on that resume to get another hard court slam count.

So then comes Roland Garros. If he were to lose here he would have lost belief COMPLETELY (think about it 4 slams in a row). But instead he wins, holds firm, enters Wimbledon and gets upset (which is kind of a waste of a slam for him because Wimbledon and Roland Garros are his better opportunities).

So IMHO he'll do whatever he can at the U.S. Open. He won't be pissed off if he loses early or late. He'll use it as practice and get some vital experience out of it. Won't push his body too hard. Come 2013 he'll be physically and mentally prepared for the year.
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post #11 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 07:13 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

I expect him to do very well in the USO series. If he doesn't, its a chance missed. But come indoor season, things might be different though he could pull a win at Thailand or Tokyo.

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post #12 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 07:39 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Undefeated until the end of the season until he loses in the WTF final.

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post #13 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 07:47 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

It'll be pretty much like last year, but he'll probably manage to pick up a title somewhere since he's going to be well rested.

I don't think his injury issues will affect him in the slightest, he pulled out at the last minute because there was obviously a chance he might be able to play at the Olympics, so I'd expect by the time the big events are back in full swing he'll be hurtling around the courts completely fine.

I'd still expect Djokovic to win most stuff, Fed to win a bit less (depends on Fed's olympics, I reckon he'll have a slow month or two after though), and Murray to mop up with Nadal when the top 2 aren't playing well.
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post #14 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 08:23 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

He can win Toronto if he is healthy since I expect most top guys to make a good run at the Olympics and though the trasition from grass to HC not has hard as Grass to Clay, they still won't be fit. So he has a good shot if he is fully recoverd and playing well.
Cinci is always harder but who knows he might do really well, I expect a trip to the SF at least.
USO is his main goal and I hope he peks during the second week and serves like this years WIM, also hopeband think that he'll win it.
Beijing is quit hard to win with likes of Berdych, Djokovic, Ferrer and Tsonga. don't know why he is not playing Tokyo so I expect a SF trip and maybe a win if he plays well and has beaten Nole in USO so he's confident woud be a fun final
Shanghai is hard again, if Nole and Fed pull out again he should go on and win the title, if not I expect a run to the SF with a prospect of more
Paris, I don't even know if he'll play because it's a week away from the WTF, but if he plays he shouldn't be too hard on himself, just reaching the QF/SF is fine and it's something I expect
The WTF should be his main goal in the indoor season, I really hope he wins and if he plays really well and with a bit of luck, he might be able to win it
DC: I just know that Spain will win and that he won't lose a match if he plays.
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post #15 of 77 (permalink) Old 07-20-2012, 08:35 AM
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Re: How do you think Nadal's season remainder will unfold?

Best chances are at Toronto and USO I think. I don't know what to think about his injuries... After Wimbledon he seemed positive about being fit for Olympics, now he won't play citing no new injury I don't know what to think.
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