Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era? - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:32 AM Thread Starter
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Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

It seems these days, he can't win a major match without saving at least a couple of match points.

To save a match point, you'll need skill, mental toughness, and last but by no means the least a whole of luck.

A match point is like any other point. It is a single point in a match, be it at the very beginning, middle, or end. As a server, I guess your chances of winning the point is let's say 60%, and 40% as a returner on any individual point.

We all know even when a top player plays against a low ranked player, any individual points within a match can go either way. It's just that over a large enough sample size, the better player wins the majority of points.

So let's look at Djokovic

USO 2010 - 2 consecutive match points on his own serve, rough estimate 60% x 60% = 36% of saving two match points consecutively

USO 2011 - 2 consecutive match points against serve, rough estimate 40% x 40% = 16% of saving two in a row

FO 2012 (Tsonga, QF) - 2 consecutive match points on two separate occasions. I think at least one was on Tsonga serve. But let's say they were all on Djoker's serve, 36% for the first two, 36% for the second two, overall 13% of saving all four.

So let's multiply all these together, 36% x 16% x 13% = 0.75% of saving all the match points mentioned above, hence 99.25% of losing at least one of these three matches!!!!

Consider himself a lucky son of a b*tch!!

Hopefully statistically variance catches up with him!
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post #2 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:34 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

That's just how Djokovic rolls. It's a crucial part of his strategy.
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post #3 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:35 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

That's called 'being clutch'.

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post #4 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:40 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

he is mentallly tough but he is also lucky, coz if you were playing very well, you wouldn't have match points against you. It requires both luck (i.e. your opponent got tight and played not well in those match points) and mentally toughness to save the match points.

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post #5 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:41 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

Not luckier than RN that's for sure.


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post #6 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:41 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

Also let's not forget in USO 2010 Semifinals, he saved 2 further breakpoints when he was serving for the match.

From what I can remember, every time Federer faced a match point, he lost the match. So did Nadal and so did Tsonga.
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post #7 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:43 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

This will be fun.
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post #8 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:46 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

Yea maybe he was lucky in some shots, but you have to give the credit to him for be that strong mentally, when he was almost losing he did great shots, also you have to consider that normally the opponent is under pression when he is having a match point, because is a big oportunity

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post #9 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:46 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

steel balls >> statistics

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post #10 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:47 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

No. Playing great tennis when up against the wall isn't luck.

Look at his match against Jo for instance this week. Jo didn't choke those match points, it was Novak who saved them with great play/shots. Same for Federer USO 2010/2011, Djokovic came back with great shots, not due to an implosion from Federer. Gotta give credit where it's due, this ability to play so well when up against the wall is one of the reasons Nole is such a great champion.
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post #11 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:48 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

Yes. Beating Tsonga, Federer, and all these guys, .... lucky. Beating Shwank, .... not lucky. lol. Now don't be mad. Rafa will probably win it still.

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post #12 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 01:49 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

In his prime is like that. Fedal was like that too. When a player is in prime and hot streak with peak fitness & confidence.
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post #13 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 02:00 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

You're right. He is the luckiest player of the modern era. Had those tennis courts not been built right next to his restaurant he never would've played tennis. As for match points? That's called "balls".
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post #14 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 02:02 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?

Usually when he really wants to win a match that he's losing (and down match points), he plays his best.

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post #15 of 103 (permalink) Old 06-11-2012, 02:08 AM
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Re: Djokovic the luckiest player of the modern era?


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