Things chance. I'm sure you can't find a decent Nadal fan who would say he has 80% against Djokovic anywhere before the MC and Rome
As for you living in denial, let's review:
First, Murray doesn't have a chance of more than 30% against Fed in any slam. Same goes for Murray against Nadal/Djokovic.
Second, you give Murray a 10% chance against Nadal on Grass, and 60 against Novak?
Of course you can. Nadal wad playing some of his worst tennis in '11, when you made this thread is was obvious he had improved and Djokovic had slipped. It was massively close on Nole's best surface, Rafa was always going to be dominant on clay. You need to learn to see things in perspective and see what has changed.
Nadal is the worst match up for Murray, he thumps him on grass. We've seen this match up too many times on grass to know what's going to happen, Murray can't deal with the Nadal forehand.
The Novak-Andy match up is one we've never seen on grass, so it's a bit of an unknown, but I think the surface would favour Murray, and Andy can almost always make it tough for Nole. 60-40 seems fair to me.
And your percentages involving Federer are just,
He's not 25 anymore, he can be exposed in a best of 5 by people like Murray with good fitness. A lot has happened since the AO 2010, it's a lot closer now, this match up will never happen unless Murray drops out of the top 4 however