Clay warrior's got this figured out - while Fed, Djoko & Murray are dueling it out thousands of miles away in Dubai, he's relaxing in the Dominican Republic - a bit of tennis practice, a bit of golfing and a bit of relaxation on the beach - plus closer to the States and getting used to the time zone. Will be far less of a jump from there to IW than for the rest of them. This new warm up routine for tournaments will set trends - all about having a tropical holiday to get ready for the most important part of your season.
More seriously any of Murray, Djokovic or Nadal could win it. It's best of three - anything can happen. Murray's form better than Novak's. Nadal's a question mark - is he rusty? Or is he more motivated? And all importantly - the draw - who gets Raonic? Del Po? Monfils? Tsonga? Isner? All those things will be huge. Federer winning it would be a surprise. Getting past 2 of Murray/Rafa/Djoko in best of 3 on slow, outdoor HCs is a big ask.