haha. Right. Like Nadal won't defend those? It is more likely for Novak to have a big collapse in confidence after losing to the black hole of tennis which is the no slam wonder, Andry Murray. To be honest, I would retire if I lost to a player with so much mental weakness. Andy's game is great but he was mentally weak even today. So no. Federer will end up #4 in no time. He ain't going up. Sad to say.
Atleast he wasnt bagelled by this black hole of tennis and managed to get more than 3 points every set.
Rafa might not be able to defend even half of his HC points, he might also be tired and not play 4 tournaments on clay before RG.
Lets say Rafa:
Gets to SF in Indian Wells and QF in Miami, loses in F in MC and Madrid and wins Barcelona, he fails to defend 1660 points in that case.
Federer catches then up as long as he defends his points.