It's a 3-way battle for #1 right now. Nothing is set in stone. Everything right now is up in play. ONE early loss from any of the three players at an event where they are defending significant points will change the game entirely. Can Djokovic defend his Rome and Madrid titles? Will Rafa play all four big clay events? Can Roger translate his HC form to clay? If he does, then he's got a big chance, at Rome especially, to gain points, but not playing MC hurts. Nole has his chance at Monte Carlo to gain a lot and use that as a buffer for potential losses at other events.
There is absolutely no reason to believe Rafa will not once again dominate on clay. So unless he suddenly drops in form to the point he loses at a clay event before the finals at the very least, he will be in a good spot. Pressure is on Fed to continue his hot performance.
Pretty much spot on Mr. Filo. I think Federer's best chance to win a clay tournament will be at the new blue clay in Madrid, not Rome. That said, if he wins in Madrid, he'll gain 640
points over his semifinal loss last year. If he only makes the finals there, he gains 240
. If he makes the semi's in Rome, he'll gain 270
, finals, 510
gain. He needs to win in Rome to gain 910
. I think he can gain in both places.