Re: Roger Federer : The Quest For 20 Slams and 100 Titles
My thoughts on US Open 2012.
(1) I heard rumors, that the surface is going to be faster than last year, which is good for Fed, bad for Nadal, probably neutral for Djokovic.
(2) IMO the last couple of years have shown us how difficult it is to win a turnament, if you have to beat the other 2 of the big 3 en route. Most people probably don't realise how rarely that happens. Nole 2.0 did it twice, in Indian Wells and US Open, the last time Nadal did it was 2008 also twice, in Roland Garros and Hamburg, Fed did it in WTF 2010.
Basically this means, that if you're the 3rd seed, then you're screwed in every tournament. This also means that the top seed (1-2), who faces Murray in SF, is at an advantage over the other one.
(3) Contrary to what many people think, IMO US Open is Fed's best slam in the later stages of his career, or at least as good as Wimbledon. He never struggles there reaching the SF, contrary to the last couple of Wimbledons.
(4) Unless some disaster happens, Nadal will be the 3rd seed for US Open. So there are 2 possibilities for semifinals:
(a) Fed-Murray, Djokovic-Nadal. In this case, Fed has IMO a very high chance of winning. He should beat Murray again in 3-4 sets and have a tired opponent in the final. If it's Nole, then remember that in the last 2 years fresh Nole barely beat Fed in 5 sets, saving match points. If Nole is tired and Fed isn't, especially since Nole is not Nole 2.0 any more and Fed has gained confidence in Wimbledon, Fed should be favourite.
If Nadal wins the SF, Fed should also be favourite in the final, unless he barely beats Murray in 5 and Nadal easily beats Nole in 3-4, which is unlikely. This IMO would be a similar situation to Fed - Nole at Wimbledon. It would be their 1st meeting there and the surface favours Fed. Look how Nole fans underestimated Fed on grass, only because Nole is better on other surfaces. The same can easily happen with Nadal and US Open. Fed's H2H with Nadal in the second, faster part of the season, is 6-1, with the only loss on worn out Wimbledon grass.
(b) Fed-Nadal, Djokovic-Murray. This is much tougher than (a), especially since Fed-Nadal would definately be played 2nd on Stupid Saturday. If Djokovic beats Murray easily, he will be clear favourite, whomever he meats in the final. Fed can win if he beats Nadal in 3-4 sets and faces Murray or tired Djokovic (which is possible, look at AO 2012, and remember that Murray was finalist in US Open, so he knows how to win there).
To sum up, Fed doesn't need someone to upset Nole/Nadal to win US Open. If he draws Murray in SF and only 1 of them is upset, it could even lower his chances.
Last edited by JanKowalski; 07-10-2012 at 11:07 PM.