Re: The King of 100 Titles : The Great Swiss Assassin
It's pure conjecture of course, as there are so many factors and so many things could happen. We don't know who might be injured, or what the weather will be like (yes, the margins are so small among the top players, playing conditions affected by weather make a difference), and other factors. I think the best one can do is give best case, worst case scenarios.
Bold = excellent chance to win,
Bold Italic = could win under favorable circumstances
Italic = outside chance under best circumstances
Normal = little or no chance
+ if questionable as to which category a tournament falls, I have leaned toward the more generous
Federer's Scheduled Tournaments:
Outdoor Hard Winter/Spring:
Dubai - if it is not too cool and Mr. Djokovic is not at his best, or if Mr. Federer is at his best.
Indian Wells - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun
Miami - little chance, conditions too slow/high bouncing, let Nadal/Djokovic duel in the sun
Madrid - Blue clay this year, one of the fastest clay courts and not too high bouncing.
Rome - An outside chance, but things would have to go his way.
Roland Garros - if someone upsets Rafael Nadal early, then Federer is the next best RG player.
Halle - normal fast low bouncing grass, Nadal should lose by the semi-final. Federer should take this if in form.
Wimbledon - depends on the weather and a good draw. If it is dry all tournament, Mr. Federer is in trouble as the wear and tear on the court will make the second week too high bouncing for him. If he gets lucky and they have rain prior or during that soaks the base, the bounce will be lower and he will have an excellent chance.
? - he may ask for an invitation in another tournament during the 3 week interval.
Olympics - played at Wimbledon, but with new grass, 3 set matches (except the final), and only a week of play, it works in Federer's favor.
Gold=750 points, Silver=450, Bronze=340
Outdoor Hard Summer/Fall:
Toronto - outside chance at best
Cincinnati - fast hard court, could win but other fast court players will also have a good chance.
US Open - If conditions are relatively fast (per usual), this will be Federer's best chance to take a major. If the courts are soaked like last year, or have been slowed down by too gritty a coat of paint, probably not.
Shanghai - Conditions have slowed down a lot over recent years. If it were faster, his chances would improve.
Basel - defending, he should not lose his home tournament
Paris - defending, possible early *withdrawal as this tourney will finish a day before the WTF.
WTF - defending, likes the O2 surface, not fast, but relatively low bouncing. Always tough competition, depends on his end of season energy as opposed to the other players.
Total # of excellent and could win under favorable circumstances: 10
If we take 20% of those away because he will be tired due to playing too deep in tournaments close together, then it is: 8
If we only count the excellent chances then it is: 5
If he enters another unscheduled tournament that favors him, add 1.
If he doesn't take any of the could wins, and muffs the excellent chances, then obviously, he could end up with under 5.
More realistically, I think it will even out. So 4-6 titles would be no surprise. 10 or more would be amazing for him, 3 or less, disappointing.
*Could selectively withdraw from tournaments post US Open if tired/hurt.
Last edited by masterclass; 02-29-2012 at 09:48 AM.
Reason: competition spelled wrong