Yeah, it is a very difficult question to answer.
He definitely CAN, but it is debatable whether he WILL.
Three key things in his favour for the next 7 months:
- one match win to defend over RG and Wimbledon. He can easily improve on that.
- poor Masters results over spring/summer 2011. He should be aiming for R16 in IW and Miami, so a small improvement is possible there. He won just two matches over Rome, Madrid, Canada and Cincy - he should be targeting an average of at least one in each draw.
- plenty of points to earn in optionals. He played a non-existent schedule in 2011, counting points in just ONE 500 event. He should be aiming to play FOUR 500 events this year, and would surely score some big, easy points in home draws. He'd then be eligible to count maybe THREE 250 events, and easy points will be available in a few of those draws.
Basically, he needs to play a full schedule, and make a small improvement to his results in Masters events. It is very possible.
I'll stick my neck out and vote a reluctant YES.