How much luck has to do with Nole's success? - Page 4 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #46 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:03 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

All of his opponents get extremely lucky as well. His luck is only in the spotlight because he's the one doing all the winning.
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post #47 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:11 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Latso, I meant to say that the fact he's pulled so many close ones is a testament to the fact it was not a fluke he won one or two close ones.
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post #48 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:15 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Originally Posted by 156mphserve View Post
Lets assume it takes and average of 100 points to win a GS match. Since (and including) the US Open 2010, Nole has won 38 GS matches. That's 3800 points.

You have pointed out 4 times in which he was lucky, that's 4 points.

4/3800 = 0.10526 %

so he's about 0.10526 % lucky, and 99.89474 % skill
Thank God tennis has noting to do with all the above.

It would be even more boring than F1

As i said, Nole's success was meant to be regardless those shots made or missed. It's nowhere near a fluke, so there isn't even base to speculate if he'd have wound up that much self esteem and confidence if he was to miss one of those shots, so it's far from based on luck, that's clear.

p.s. you can't calculate "exact" numbers based on "let's assume"
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post #49 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:18 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

I know, it's a joke

(maybe a bad one)

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post #50 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:21 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Very dumb original post. This question could be asked of anyone at any point in any sport.
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post #51 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:23 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Latso, I meant to say that the fact he's pulled so many close ones is a testament to the fact it was not a fluke he won one or two close ones.
Yes, absoluetly, i agree with you.

I just kinda winded up answering more than just your post at once

But this is clear, Nole showed nerves of steel and rock solid mental strength.

He's been actually acting in most those situations with a humble kind of "nothing to lose" relaxed way, despite in 3/4 of them he was actually the man to beat. The position in which many have micro choked and lost matches.

To achieve this state of mind in his position is absolutely phenomenal in my opinion.

This is what he has more than Murray imo - the ability to perfectly deal with pressure.
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post #52 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:30 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Very dumb original post. This question could be asked of anyone at any point in any sport.
Disagreed.

It is an unique situation, which hasn't happened to anyone in the last 10 years (if ever) in tennis.

That's why i believe it has its place on a board where much, much less interesting subjects are often discussed.


I'm not asking "would Federe be such goat if he had broken his ankle at age 15.." which is the kind of blind idiotic post you're reffering to.

Mine is based on an unique serrie of events.
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post #53 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:31 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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I know, it's a joke

(maybe a bad one)
I laughed.
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post #54 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:41 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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I am not taking anything from him except that FH in New York
That was a fluke. No?
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post #55 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:47 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Disagreed.

It is an unique situation, which hasn't happened to anyone in the last 10 years (if ever) in tennis.

That's why i believe it has its place on a board where much, much less interesting subjects are often discussed.


I'm not asking "would Federe be such goat if he had broken his ankle at age 15.." which is the kind of blind idiotic post you're reffering to.

Mine is based on an unique serrie of events.
My apologies for calling it dumb off the mark, but it's still a weird inquiry to be throwing out there. You are assuming that Nole was experiencing luck due to some of his wins coming in 5th sets...but luck can exist AT ANY POINT. Who is to say that Roger never experienced luck in the opening sets or thereinafter that ultimately had an impact on the entire match? Same goes for anyone that ever played, Rafa for example. Luck can come at any point in a match...the fact that Nole is getting more of it in the ultimate set does not negate other players from having had any less of it in past matches. That said, who is to say it's even luck we are arguing about? I mean, players will miss shots and players will make unlikely shots. Is that necessarily "luck?" Can it be attributed to anything else? Skill mayhap? Dunoon.
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post #56 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 09:54 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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If he's not winning "he's a loser"
If he's tired and retiring "he's a pussy"
If he wins easily "the field is weak"
If he wins in difficult conditions coming back in the match "he is lucky"
Lol
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post #57 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 10:01 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Nothing. He earned all his success and victories.
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post #58 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 10:02 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

"Luck" is a factor that adds to any players' big achievements. All of the greats of the past have had their share of "luck", and their share of "mishaps" just the same, Djokovic is/will be no exception.

Woulda-coulda-shoulda is irrelevant.

The only times I feel like a "(un)lucky" discussion is appropriate are those cases when players truly get hit by a debilitating injury/disease. Muster, Kuerten, Ferrero, Haas, Hewitt, and more recently, DelPotro and Söderling come to mind.

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post #59 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 10:05 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
"Luck" is a factor that adds to any players' big achievements. All of the greats of the past have had their share of "luck", and their share of "mishaps" just the same, Djokovic is/will be no exception.

Woulda-coulda-shoulda is irrelevant.

The only times I feel like a "(un)lucky" discussion is appropriate are those cases when players truly get hit by a debilitating injury/disease. Muster, Kuerten, Ferrero, Haas, Hewitt, and more recently, DelPotro and Söderling come to mind.
Del Potro's injury isn't debilitating though. The guy is getting some decent results. The problem is while he's back at his USO level, the other players have became much better. Soderling is sick, but that's his own problem.
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post #60 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 10:07 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Originally Posted by Moose Limb View Post
My apologies for calling it dumb off the mark, but it's still a weird inquiry to be throwing out there. You are assuming that Nole was experiencing luck due to some of his wins coming in 5th sets...but luck can exist AT ANY POINT. Who is to say that Roger never experienced luck in the opening sets or thereinafter that ultimately had an impact on the entire match? Same goes for anyone that ever played, Rafa for example. Luck can come at any point in a match...the fact that Nole is getting more of it in the ultimate set does not negate other players from having had any less of it in past matches. That said, who is to say it's even luck we are arguing about? I mean, players will miss shots and players will make unlikely shots. Is that necessarily "luck?" Can it be attributed to anything else? Skill mayhap? Dunoon.
Your post kinda induces that i'm actually stating smth about luck, yet it's just a question and noting an interesting serie of events.

Some people even answered that it's stupid to base several slams on luck only, which i never did

It's clear to me that Roger many times had some luck in his openning or second round matches, where he had to go through 5 sets, or saving incredible and important shots, etc.

But in such case, it's against lesser players, where the battle is against yourself, your rustiness, your motivation level, your ability to work around an uncomfortable style, etc.

While in the case i've brought up it's 4 times 5th sets, BPs, hidden MPs or actual MPs against Nole, with a 100% equal adversary on the other side of the net in incredibly important and tense moments.

And i'm clearly stating that the closest to pure luck in those several points was eventually only the FH return against Roger, all the others were actually perfectly played attacking points, or 20 shots rallies won, or aces, etc.

So it's just smth that never happens and it's interesting how much of it is actually based on a phenomenal mental strength, how much would be on the oponents choking, how much on luck, etc.

It's obvious that neither Murray, nor Nadal should have even been in position to even get to this position and they were lucky not getting actually spanked earlier in their respective matches, so i'm not saying anything more than - Hey guys, interesting fact - thisandthat, what do you think?
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