How much luck has to do with Nole's success? - Page 3 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #31 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-30-2012, 11:55 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Originally Posted by latso View Post
That's the punter speaking here (or a student having his statistics period )

I agree with you that luck is always equal to 0, But with one important condition - Over a period of time!

On a single point, when the ball clips the net - t's pure luck wether it will fall on this or that side.

On generl terms, if Nole is worth winning 10 slams in his career, it won't matter if he won them in 3 years or in 15, as he'll luck some out, some will unluckily lose, that's when it goes down to 0.

But in a shorter period of time this is a factor indeed.

just imo
This is true for a short period however it's not really a short period anymore. Novak has five majors (over four years) winning seven matches for each so that's 35 matches and take the statistics for each match – how many net clips, wrong line calls, chased-down-smashes, wrong plays, double faults, UFEs, BPs won, BPs botched, injuries/sickness, withdrawals, hail mary shots – have gone his way and how many have gone against him. Also take into account other majors he has gone deep in where he may have been lucky to win matches and he may have been unlucky to lose some - that's 2 more finals, 7 other Semi Finals and five Quarter Finals – that's maybe over 100 matches.

So it all balances out, he has the same amount of luck as everyone else.
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post #32 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 12:02 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Luck is a big factor in sports.
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post #33 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 12:03 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

It's all about the luck.
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post #34 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 04:16 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Yes, and FC Barcelona is so lucky team in fotball...
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post #35 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 04:21 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

i vote egg

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why are you so seriously
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post #36 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 04:25 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Well since we're all lucky to be alive I guess it's 100%.
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post #37 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 04:35 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

No luck

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post #38 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 04:39 AM
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Talking Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Yes, and FC Barcelona is so lucky team in fotball...
Universe Team has own referee and Platini.

(I prefer Galaxy Real Madrid)
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post #39 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 05:18 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

He's only very lucky in USO semi final 2011, other match no luck

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post #40 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 05:55 AM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.

Some luck indeed here, no?

You could make the same list about some of hes loses. hes first US open final against Roger, Semi final at olympics where he lost to Nadal. Those where mathces he should have won. Half of those 18 defeats he has ti Nadal are down to luck. So shut the fuck up you troll
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post #41 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 07:37 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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You could make the same list about some of hes loses. hes first US open final against Roger, Semi final at olympics where he lost to Nadal. Those where mathces he should have won. Half of those 18 defeats he has ti Nadal are down to luck. So shut the fuck up you troll
Don't embarass your country with those indigenous outbursts.

I was just enjoying the first part of your post which makes sense and you had to crap on it all by showing your level
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post #42 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 07:49 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

More than anything, the fact that he's pulled off so many close escapes testifies to his mental strength. That is not luck at all. So I don't see how it could be all down to luck. I am not even his fan.
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post #43 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 07:55 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Is luck a code word for drugs?

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post #44 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 08:01 PM
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

Lets assume it takes and average of 100 points to win a GS match. Since (and including) the US Open 2010, Nole has won 38 GS matches. That's 3800 points.

You have pointed out 4 times in which he was lucky, that's 4 points.

4/3800 = 0.10526 %

so he's about 0.10526 % lucky, and 99.89474 % skill

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post #45 of 104 (permalink) Old 01-31-2012, 08:02 PM Thread Starter
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Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

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Originally Posted by Looner View Post
More than anything, the fact that he's pulled off so many close escapes testifies to his mental strength. That is not luck at all. So I don't see how it could be all down to luck. I am not even his fan.
Only a blind Rafa tard could say that "it's all down to luck". Of course it isn't.

The discussion is rather "how much" luck counts in this case.

My personal opinion is that luck doesn't have much to do with it and it would have happened the way it all happened maybe a bit later (if he misses this return against Federer f.e.) in different circumstances, but it would have happened anyway. It was pretty much obvious that the guy is closing the gap with a solid pace, so there is no supririse.

I was just noting that there haven't been much GS winners going through what he went through.

Rafa's 2009 AO was almost as hard, Verdasco in 5 epic sets, then Federer, but he pretty much never was hanging on a do or die kind of point anywhere.

Federer's RG was hanging on this inside out FH against Haas, which was the point which (metaphorically) brought him the tittle, but these are the couple examples i remember at first sight and both are not even close to what Nole had to overcome in these 4 matches i mention.

In the last probably 30 slams, these are the moments i can remember, maybe i'm missing smth dramatic in some of Fedals at Wimby, or the 16-14 Wimby of Roger against Roddick, but it's still a very interesting fact i'm just noting.

It's just like stating - "Rafa is the first 3 times in a row runner up at GSs in history".

This doesn't mean someone is trolling Rafa, or anything, it's just stating an interesting fact.
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