I don't think Fed will beat Nadal anymore at a Major after this match. Maybe at non-major tournaments he can beat Nadal. Federer does not have a conviction and belief last night. He was tentative when he has easy chances to win the points and convert BP's. He just can not swing freely when the pressure from Nadal is on high. This is not about the talent and skill. Federer is a better overall better player than Nadal. It's just that Federer is not mentally tough enough against Nadal. It so frustrating to watch Federer with all his humongous talent and skill not deliver when it matters most. I was expecting a better result from Fed last night.
There was some of that, yes, but mostly because of one reason - slow and/or higher bouncing court. I suggest you need not despair of Mr. Federer being able to win another major just yet, though it may be very difficult to do that against Mr. Nadal.
The Australian Open court slows at night too much which is when semifinals are played, and forces an attacking player like Mr. Federer to take too many risky shots for too long in order to produce winners.
Roland Garros red clay - Forget it. Mr. Nadal is the Clay Court King of his era (if not all), and Mr. Federer is second best.
Wimbledon grass has changed becoming high bouncing and slower than any grass court should be. If they face each other there, I favor Mr. Nadal slightly because of that.
The US Open is generally played on the fastest surface now (forget last year, heavy rains made it much slower than normal). Conditions favor Mr. Federer here, but not Mr. Nadal, and so they have never met there.