Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic) - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 01:48 PM Thread Starter
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Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

MODS: There is probably a thread where this would fit in, however it's pretty obvious that the scope of this one is to avoid the tardism, 2-digit IQ, verbal diarheea from all the non-fans of the sport that don't know more than 4-7 active players (including Muster) and go back and forth with hyping their favorites for the next grand-slam.

With this restriction, I believe we could get a more interesting discussion on the outsiders, and the non-highlight matches of the earlier rounds, even first week. I hope we can be on the same wavelength with this. Thanks.

---

So anyway, going in the meat of things:

1.What are some upsets that you are seeing in the first round?

2.Any specific thoughts on a match or a player that you feel could make a rise, or that is coming into the AO unprepared and bound to board the first flight come Wednesday - Thursday?

3.Conditions, reports from sight? Welcomed.

4.Any match odds that seem ridiculous given the circumstances?

5.General thoughts?

6.Qualifiers that have a chance to make a bang (win a few matches?)?

Discuss away.
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post #2 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:11 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Any thoughts on how long it will take for this to turn into a Nadal-Federer-Djokovic thread (ok, I'll shut up now)

I would like to mention Huta Galung. First time he made it in the main draw, last four sets in his qualifying matches were 6-0 6-0 6-4 6-0

Hope he doesn't draw Nadal or someone like that, then I can see him win a round

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post #3 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:13 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Most of the qualifiers are of poor quality, and the one's who could do damage (i.e. Golubev) got crap draws.

If you go upsets by top 32 seeds losing -

Roddick - not so good anymore, and Haase is a tough competitor. With that said, Haase will probably choke.
Gasquet - gut feel he'll do something stupid.
Troicki - in late 2011 this wouldn't be an upset. However, their fortunes have changed. Still, this is one to watch out for if Troicki's still mugging it up.
Granollers - sorry to Diana, but I still don't rate his chances on hards, despite this court being a slower one. Plus, Levine's looking hot.
Fish - he's been shocking recently. Plus, the Australian Open courts don't suit his game.
Monaco - Kohli's probably the better player on hards.
Mayer - would be Lu if fit, but he may not be.
Verdasco - although is this really an upset?
Melzer - Karlovic's been playing much better tennis recently, although the H2H is massively stacked in Melzer's favour.
Wawrinka - Paire's been in good form recently, plus Wawrinka's game is in terrible shape.
Almagro - plays good in Australia, but is still iffy on hards.

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post #4 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:14 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Any thoughts on how long it will take for this to turn into a Nadal-Federer-Djokovic thread (ok, I'll shut up now)

I would like to mention Huta Galung. First time he made it in the main draw, last four sets in his qualifying matches were 6-0 6-0 6-4 6-0

Hope he doesn't draw Nadal or someone like that, then I can see him win a round
Huta Galung drew Berlocq, who's one of the easier targets in the main draw.

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post #5 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:19 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

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Originally Posted by Chase Visa View Post
Huta Galung drew Berlocq, who's one of the easier targets in the main draw.
Ok, didn't know that. I can definitely see him winning that, I expect him to really.

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post #6 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:47 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

From first day of matches, I think the players that are most likely to produce upsets are Huta-Galung (@~2.2), Verdasco(@~2.2), Chardy(@~2.3) and Paire (@~3.75). Some favorites with decent odds are Ljubicic, Kohli and Melzer.

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post #7 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:49 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Berdych!!!!!

Berdych | Murray | Tsonga | Monfils | Raonic | Soderling
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post #8 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Ok, didn't know that. I can definitely see him winning that, I expect him to really.
Not that easy. Berlocq, the grunting panther will scorch the court inside out, getting balls back with ridiculous amount of topspin and grunt DBs.

I think Huta Galung will have to serve really well and generally play a very good match to get it done, do-able but I'd rather go with Berlocq squeezing the win rather than the offensive player getting the job done.

Tricky match though.
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post #9 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 02:59 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

John Isner will make the Semis.

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post #10 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:05 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

I really hope we get Paire-Wawrinka on a show court, that should be awesome. Not much of a chance for Paire but will be fun anyway.
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post #11 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:18 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

I'm looking forward to a Baghdatis/Wawrinka round 2 matchup.
I might go and see Marcos vs Becker on Monday.

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post #12 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:35 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Nice thread.

I agree that Jesse Huta Galung could go over Berlocq. Also, I think Fish is the biggest seed in danger as Muller is a dangerous floater in any hard court slam draw and played well in Brisbane up to his match vs Murray.

I think Section 8 will provide the most excitement though. The likely second round match-ups are:

Isner [16] vs Nalbandian (We all know that Nalby in form can beat virtually anybody on his day)
Davydenko vs Lopez [18] (Ditto for Davy. Lopez's game will suit him.)
Ljubicic [28] vs Young (Player going down the rankings versus a player going up)
Haas vs Nadal [2] (Nadal has looked out of form recently. Haas's level is an unknown entity)

I expect 1 or maybe 2 seeds to miss out in those matches.

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post #13 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:36 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

I can see Hewitt taking out Roddick- he looked awful in warm-ups, but then again he looked awful in Eastbourne then almost beat Soderling at Wimbledon



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post #14 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:40 PM
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

Oh, and an upset is not out of the question when #10 seed Almagro plays Lukasz Kubot...

Also Ward qualified and has a good chance vs Kavcic

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post #15 of 19 (permalink) Old 01-14-2012, 04:44 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Australian Open discussion (non Top4 + Tsonga, Monfils, Del Potro, Tomic, Raonic)

I'm not too sure about Fish being in danger. Sure, he played pretty patchy in Perth and generally speaking Muller can play solid Top 20 tennis on a good day but he himself is way too patchy to get the job done in the end, proof are all the bagels he's eaten in slams although starting off those matches in good form.

I'd say Fish edges it out in a tight affair or one tough set and 2 easy ones in case Muller is not in top form.
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