Even a terrible Murray can beat opponents in good form. Baghdatis will have to well (and for the entire match) to win this, even if Andy is mediocre.
Even as a fellow Murray fan I have to disagree with this. Andy can win matches when he isn't playing his best (e.g. AO11 vs Dolgopolov, USO11 vs Haase) but when he's playing terrible he is capable of losing to anyone.
Baggy is just the type of give-it-a-go sort of player Murray seems to have problems with when he's not at his best (e.g. USO10 vs Wawrinka, RG09 vs Gonzalez) and so i'd expect a very tough test if Andy isn't at full fitness or if he isn't properly invested in the match.