Lots of things would have to go right for Federer in order to win AO. Either Novak or Rafa would have to lose before playing him because he won't beat the both. Nadal can't be 100% healthy because no way Federer can beat him if Rafa is 100%. Also Federer would need ridiculous sieving to beat Novak.Playing Murray in the finals would help. Also avoiding players like Berdych, Tsonga and Del Potro would be important. It is not impossible but it is highly unlikely. At this stage of his career where he got little worse and the competition lot better it has become very difficult. The fact that he won bunch of matches in the fall means as much as the losses at exho last week. He won't be a favorite to win it so that might help him. When tyhe draw comes out we will be able to predict more but as of now, I wouldn't bet any money on him despite him winning is way more likely than Murray doing it. Safest bet is still the Novak - Rafa finals. Anything else would be somewhat surprising.
Though I agree with some of this, it is a non sequitur. The poll's premise isn't a debate about whether he will win the Australian Open or not, it's a given.
The poll states:
"If fed wins AO 2012 and becomes number 2 does he have a multi slam year?"
Under those conditions (if it means he is #2 seed at every slam), he would have a reasonable chance of multiple slam victories in 2012.