Anyway, here are the point breakdowns for Roger, Rafa and Nole since Shanghai 2011 (assuming Fed defeats Berdych, which is easier said than done):
Unless he goes really badly or Rafole catches fire, it's gonna be hard for him to miss out on the #1 spot.
Agree with this, if he wins Madrid he has it his own hands i think.
He will have 2000 points lead over Nole and almost 3000 over Rafa.
He should make at least SF in Rome, SF at RG and than it is up to him to do big thins - he can win Wimbledon for sure, but he must avoid someone in form ala Tsonga, BErdych, he can beat Nole at Wimby for sure and Rafa in SF would be better for him than Rafa in F too. He will add a lot of points on summer HC Masters, i can see him win Cincinnati and at least make SF in Canada- Nole can´t add much there, more likely he will loose there, Rafa in Cinci won´t do much, but can add points in Canada. It will help Fed if someone like Murray, Berdych, Delpo or Tsonga will make results and beating Nole-Rafa at big tournaments.