Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the
The way I see it, Fed, Nadal, and Djokovic all have certain priorities or must-haves in order to end up finishing the summer at #1:
1. Defend at least 1 of his two clay Masters 1000 titles. With a good run in Monte-Carlo, he will not be terribly hurt if he loses either Madrid or Rome in the SF or Final.
2. A final appearance at the French Open is pretty critical. Whether he wins or loses, he has at least a 480 point net gain. Can't hurt.
3. CAREFUL SCHEDULING IS CRITICAL! If Nole is smart, he will be aware that he does not need to do much more than last year in order to retain his #1 ranking. I know he will not be willing to do this, but I think if he is playing Monte-Carlo, he MUST skip Belgrade if he wants to be in good shape for the fatiguing stretching beginning with Madrid.
4. He will also be reluctant to do this, but I think his priorities lie with defending his Wimbledon and summer hard-court points. The olympics really aren't as important to his ranking as the other major tournaments of the year. He should not be planning in order to prime at the Olympics. He should be looking to prime at the U.S. Open.
1. French Open defense is a must. It's not so much the ranking help that's important but the confidence booster that he thrives from.
2. He needs to get his shit together and win AT LEAST 2 of the 3 clay Masters 1000 tournaments.
3. Scheduling for him will also be vital. However, unlike Novak, he's got 500 points stocked up in Barcelona so skipping will have a greater impact than Novak skipping Belgrade. However, unlike Novak, he should try to prime for the French Open and Wimbledon. He must also not overwork himself especially because of his history of knee problems.
4. This is more of a combination of his goal and luck. First of all, he must at least keep his #2 ranking in order to continue to be on the opposite side of the draw as Nole. However, in addition to that he should hope for as many draws in which Federer is in Nole's half as possible. The more this happens, the more easily he will reach finals.
1. Skipping Monte-Carlo is a good idea. However, since he will be losing 180 points and has major French Open points to defend, he's gonna want to make the finals of either Madrid, Rome, or both. It would be wise to avoid the kind of shit he pulled at Rome last year, losing to Gasquet.
2. French Open final is pretty crucial. However, this will only be possible if he is in Nole's half of the draw. He cannot afford to lose 480 ranking points and if luck puts him in Nadal's half... he may be screwed.
3. Scheduling - Prime for the Olympics. Winning Wimbledon would be a huge leap for him, but a final appearance would be a must if he wants the #1 ranking. He is only defending 270 points in Toronto and Cinci combined so he shouldn't worry about those too much.
4. An Olympic gold medal is also crucial to the #1 ranking. He can use all the help he can get and if he gets lucky and Nole slips up and loses early, Federer can plot a jump to the top.
5. The U.S. Open is very important since this is the last tournament before Federer will have to start defending his own points. One thing Federer could improve on from the past is match point conversion. JUST FUCKING FINISH IT! If he can survive without another semifinals choke, he will be in a very good position to take the #1 ranking assuming the above conditions have been met.
Gulbis Ferrer Nishikori
Isner Nadal Dimitrov Istomin Wawrinka B. Baker
Berdych Monaco Granollers Leo-Mayer Troicki Roger-Vasselin Lu Paire
PAW Titles: Brisbane 2012 & 2014
FITD Titles: Marseille 2014
Tennis Tipping Titles
Singles: Orleans CH '11, Tampere CH '12, Medellin CH '12, Vancouver CH '15, Opava FUT '15
Doubles: Noumea CH '13 w/ Chirag, Cherbourg CH '14, Yokohama CH '15 w/ BMT360