Alex : this thread is not about what is likely or not, of course it's about possibilities, if people make so many calculations it's only because they hope
, not they think it's likely. If they really thought it's likely they wouldn't grab at figures to believe.
Rog won IW (great win) and then he lost to Roddick. There are too many players who can beat Rog on any given day and I'm not talking about Djokovic or Nadal.
I don't understand the big deal people make about the loss to Roddick : to me it looked a lot like Roddick's win over Nadal in Miami 2010, Roddick stayed together with Fed by serving well and finally took fire for one set. It was obvious that Roddick was very motivated that night and Fed a little bit tired after playing a lot for one month and a half.
And Fed has not always been so comfortable over Roddick contrary to "MTF ostrich/duck debates" : during his 21 wins over him, he won 12 tie-breaks to 1 ! Once he loses a tie-break, he's vulnerable : he lost one tie-break in his 3 losses to Roddick.
In his interview, Djokovic said that he was not surprised because everybody knew that such things like losing to Roddick or Isner when on fire were possible. Even though Isner was even better against Djokovic than Roddick against Fed, yes.
For Fed winning one tournament + losing early next tournament is much better than making one final and a semifinal, he has 85 more points and less tiredness !