Will Federer regain the #1 spot? - Page 32 - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?
Yes, and he will cement his reputation as the best player ever 200 55.56%
No, he will forever be two weeks short of the record 160 44.44%
Voters: 360. You may not vote on this poll

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post #466 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 03:54 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Roger only needs 2 damn weeks.

He has from now until really Shanghai 2012. If he can get to #1 after Shanghai 2012, he'll have 3 weeks until he has to defend Basel and all the rest. But at that point, it'll be gravy cause he'll already have the record. Will he go for 300 weeks?

Now, the current points are:

Federer- 4,810
Murray- 3,200
Djokovic- 2,740
Nadal- 2,170

I am of the opinion that if Roger can tread water from IW to RG, and be tied or very close with Nadal/Djokovic going into the Halle-Shanghai swing where Roger can pick up more points than the other 2. Regardless, it'll be close.

How about some baseless predictions, eh?

IW: Nadal- SF, Federer- SF, Djokovic- W
Miami: Djokovic- SF, Federer- F, Nadal- W
Monte Carlo: Let's assume Fed gets a last second wild card again. Fed- QF, Nadal- W, Djokovic- F
Barcelona: 500 free points for Rafa
Madrid: Nadal- W, Djokovic- F, Federer- SF
Rome: Djokovic- W, Nadal- F, Federer- SF
RG: Nadal- W, Djokovic- F, Federer- SF

At this point, the race to Shanghai would be:

Nadal- 8,630
Djokovic- 7,500
Federer- 7,390

And the ranking would be:

Federer- 8,500
Djokovic- 13,100
Nadal- 10,975

And on we go:

Halle: Djokovic- W, Federer- F, Nadal- SF
Wimbledon: Federer- W, Nadal- F, Djokovic- SF
Olympics: Federer- Gold, Djokovic- Silver, Nadal- Bronze
Canada: Djokovic- W, Federer- F, Nadal- SF
Cincy: Nadal- W, Federer- F, Djokovic- SF

And so then we have the race:

Nadal- 11,620
Djokovic- 10,280
Federer- 11,490

And the rankings:

Nadal- 12,530
Djokovic- 11,920
Federer- 11,970

And so it'll all come down to the USO and even Tokyo/Shanghai. Let's say Murray or Delpo win the USO, Djokovic loses in the F, and Fedal in the SF. then it would be:

Race:

Nadal- 12,340
Djokovic- 11,480
Federer- 12,210

Ranking:

Nadal- 12,050
Djokovic- 11,120
Federer- 11,970

And finally, Djokovic wins Beijing, Fed def. Nadal in finals of Tokyo.

Race:

Nadal- 12,640
Djokovic- 11,980
Federer- 12,710

Ranking:

Nadal- 12,050
Djokovic- 11,620
Federer- 12,470

Well, Fed would take over #1 here for 1 week, but he'd have to defend it in Shanghai. Let's say Nole wins Shanghai, def. Nadal in F, Fed makes SF.

Race:

Nadal- 13,240
Djokovic- 12,980
Federer- 13,070

Ranking:

Nadal- 12,560
Djokovic- 12,620
Federer- 12,830

The numbers may be a bit off, due to 500 rules or other bullshit, not sure of the Olympic counting rules either, but bottom line, it is going to be close as fuck for the next 7-8 months.

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Last edited by Johnny Groove; 03-05-2012 at 04:07 PM.
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post #467 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 04:06 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by kingiskingfineon View Post
Nice to see him try but really the slow courts and the fact that 2 players are better than him on every surface bar indoors right now makes it almost impossible
Dubai was outdoors... and playing relatively fast, and I very much doubt if Rafa or Novak would have stood a chance against him there this year.

Let the US Open get back to being as fast as it was, and he will be very dangerous there. Even as unusually slow playing as it was last year, he was still only a hair's breadth away. A bit more luck on his side...and things might have been different. But look, it is what it is. It's sport, you win, you lose, and you move on. And it seems like he's moved on in a very good way since the US Open. Winning begets winning.

He could also be dangerous at Wimbledon with a good draw (that doesn't mean easy), and conditions which would favor him. Some rain before and during the tournament would help soften the harder ground and provide lower bounces, especially the second week. That would help him relative to the other tough players like Nadal and Djokovic who generally benefit from higher bounces, but lower bounces might also help players like Berdych and Tsonga...so nothing is for sure. It always helps to have some luck.

I don't see Federer winning at Roland Garros unless something happens to Nadal. If Nadal goes out for any reason, Federer has been the next best player at Roland Garros and would obviously have an excellent chance.

Of course many others also have a chance. Somebody could get hot at a particular tournament and surprise, but it seems tougher to do that these days for a whole tournament. We saw how Tsonga had incredible form last year at Wimbledon to beat Roger Federer and reach the semifinal vs. Djokovic, where Mr. Tsonga's level dropped a bit. It doesn't take much these days to separate one player from another.

It should be an entertaining year, especially with the Olympics in the mix. As long as I'm seeing a good variety of tennis being played well, I am ready to enjoy the show, no matter the winner.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Last edited by masterclass; 03-05-2012 at 04:16 PM.
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post #468 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 04:11 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Groove View Post
Roger only needs 2 damn weeks.

He has from now until really Shanghai 2012. If he can get to #1 after Shanghai 2012, he'll have 3 weeks until he has to defend Basel and all the rest. But at that point, it'll be gravy cause he'll already have the record. Will he go for 300 weeks?

Now, the current points are:

Federer- 4,810
Murray- 3,200
Djokovic- 2,740
Nadal- 2,170

I am of the opinion that if Roger can tread water from IW to RG, and be tied or very close with Nadal/Djokovic going into the Halle-Shanghai swing where Roger can pick up more points than the other 2. Regardless, it'll be close.

How about some baseless predictions, eh?

IW: Nadal- SF, Federer- SF, Djokovic- W
Miami: Djokovic- SF, Federer- F, Nadal- W
Monte Carlo: Let's assume Fed gets a last second wild card again. Fed- QF, Nadal- W, Djokovic- F
Barcelona: 500 free points for Rafa
Madrid: Nadal- W, Djokovic- F, Federer- SF
Rome: Djokovic- W, Nadal- F, Federer- SF
RG: Nadal- W, Djokovic- F, Federer- SF

At this point, the race to Shanghai would be:

Nadal- 8,630
Djokovic- 7,500
Federer- 7,390

And the ranking would be:

Federer- 8,500
Djokovic- 13,100
Nadal- 10,975

And on we go:

Halle: Djokovic- W, Federer- F, Nadal- SF
Wimbledon: Federer- W, Nadal- F, Djokovic- SF
Olympics: Federer- Gold, Djokovic- Silver, Nadal- Bronze
Canada: Djokovic- W, Federer- F, Nadal- SF
Cincy: Nadal- W, Federer- F, Djokovic- SF

And so then we have the race:

Nadal- 11,620
Djokovic- 10,280
Federer- 11,490

And the rankings:

Nadal- 12,530
Djokovic- 11,920
Federer- 11,970

And so it'll all come down to the USO and even Tokyo/Shanghai.
Fine, but Djokovic is not going to beat Federer in Halle, it is unlikely Federer will beat Nadal in Wimbledon or Nadal beat Federer and win Cincinatti (!) and Federer wont beat Djokovic in ultraslow Miami.

I dont really know if you turned the world upside down there, overall it evens out but you are not taking into consideration what surface they are playing at all.

Federer, Nadal and Djokovic wont be in every SF and F this year, that is just not realistic.

I am going to do some random predictions here that might not come true but will give you an idea that tennis is still an unpredictable sport:

Djokovic wont be in SF in Wimbledon and will lose twice to someone not named Nadal on clay (could be Federer, Murray, Ferrer, Almagro, Del Potro).

Nadal wont be in SF in Indian Wells/Miami and neither in Cincinatti.

Federer will only get to 1 SF during clay season this year.

Murray is going to dominate Indian Wells/Miami with finals in both events and atleast 1 trophy.

All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
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post #469 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 04:19 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Groove View Post
Cincy: Nadal- W, Federer- F, Djokovic- SF
Erm.

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post #470 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 04:41 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Fine, but Djokovic is not going to beat Federer in Halle, it is unlikely Federer will beat Nadal in Wimbledon or Nadal beat Federer and win Cincinatti (!) and Federer wont beat Djokovic in ultraslow Miami.

I dont really know if you turned the world upside down there, overall it evens out but you are not taking into consideration what surface they are playing at all.

Federer, Nadal and Djokovic wont be in every SF and F this year, that is just not realistic.

I am going to do some random predictions here that might not come true but will give you an idea that tennis is still an unpredictable sport:

Djokovic wont be in SF in Wimbledon and will lose twice to someone not named Nadal on clay (could be Federer, Murray, Ferrer, Almagro, Del Potro).

Nadal wont be in SF in Indian Wells/Miami and neither in Cincinatti.

Federer will only get to 1 SF during clay season this year.

Murray is going to dominate Indian Wells/Miami with finals in both events and atleast 1 trophy.

Don't forget Jurgen Melzer on clay, especially RG. He looks to be back in form and came from 2 sets to love down to beat Djokovic in 5 at Roland Garros in 2010. Mr. Djokovic will try to defend as many points as he can, but it's a tough ask. I see him winning at least 1 less tournament on clay this year. I think he and Nadal have to avoid playing each other at both IW and Miami, or they just might end their season early if they play like they did in Australia. He must defend 1 more major to have a chance at holding #1 and do well in the other tournaments he defends and try to pick up some points in the Olympics.

I think Mr. Federer can get at least to the Roland Garros semifinal, and possibly win Madrid on the new blue clay this year.
I don't think he will enter Monte-Carlo. He's playing as few clay tournaments as possible and I believe focusing on the extended grass season including the Olympics. Mr. Federer needs to win a major either Wimbledon or the US Open to have a chance at #1.

Nadal no in Cincinnati, yes at either IW or Miami, probably Miami, but anyway his focus has to be to dominate the clay court season and win a record 7th at Roland Garros. Beyond that, Wimbledon is probably his best chance if the weather is sunny and dry. 2 majors would give him a good shot at #1.

Murray should be in hunt at either IW or Miami or both, but may bow down to either Djokovic or Nadal. I think he can win Rome if he improves only a bit on last year's fine effort. And he'll always have a chance on the American summer hard courts. Murray needs to win a major to boost his confidence and mentality to the next level. It's a tough ask with the other 3 there. The US Open would have to be his best chance, I believe.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Last edited by masterclass; 03-05-2012 at 05:11 PM.
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post #471 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 05:56 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the



So you exchange a SF here for a F there, a W here with a SF there, maybe throw in a few QF here and there, my point is just that it is going to be a close race from here on out, and anyone discounting any of the top 3 (No way Djoker repeats 2011, Rafa won't win anything off clay, Fed is too old on slow surfaces) is making a mistake.

If anyone should win 2 slams, however, he may seal it up.

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We all choke. That’s all right. We’re not machines. What you have to learn is to accept that fact and not panic. It’s the panic that loses the matches, not the nerves.
Quote:
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The harder you try, the luckier you get.
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post #472 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:01 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

This still looks like SF but if Fed wins Wimby thing will become interesting. Olypmics, Toronto, USO and Shanghai . Less than 1000 points to defend . But still this is mission impossible
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post #473 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:02 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by Johnny Groove View Post


So you exchange a SF here for a F there, a W here with a SF there, maybe throw in a few QF here and there, my point is just that it is going to be a close race from here on out, and anyone discounting any of the top 3 (No way Djoker repeats 2011, Rafa won't win anything off clay, Fed is too old on slow surfaces) is making a mistake.

If anyone should win 2 slams, however, he may seal it up.
I understand what you are saying and I didnt mean Nadal cant win anything off clay or that Federer cant win slow hardcourt/clay titles or that Djokovic cant win on grass.

I am just saying Djokovic cant beat Federer in Halle, Federer cant beat Djokovic on slow hardcourt and Nadal cant win Cincinatti, Federer is also highly unlikely to win another slam against Nadal in the final. Atleast all those things happening within 2 months, it is a little bit too unreal which made me laught a little.

All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
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post #474 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:13 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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I understand what you are saying and I didnt mean Nadal cant win anything off clay or that Federer cant win slow hardcourt/clay titles or that Djokovic cant win on grass.

I am just saying Djokovic cant beat Federer in Halle, Federer cant beat Djokovic on slow hardcourt and Nadal cant win Cincinatti, Federer is also highly unlikely to win another slam against Nadal in the final. Atleast all those things happening within 2 months, it is a little bit too unreal which made me laught a little.
If I told you 12 months ago that Djokovic would win IW, Miami, Madrid, and Rome beating Nadal in all 4 finals, win Canada, win Wimbledon and USO beating Nadal in the finals and coming from 2 sets down and saving MP vs. Fed in the SF? And then back it up by beating Nadal at the AO final in a 6 hour epic, surely you would laugh a little

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We all choke. That’s all right. We’re not machines. What you have to learn is to accept that fact and not panic. It’s the panic that loses the matches, not the nerves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Player
The harder you try, the luckier you get.
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post #475 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:18 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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If I told you 12 months ago that Djokovic would win IW, Miami, Madrid, and Rome beating Nadal in all 4 finals, win Canada, win Wimbledon and USO beating Nadal in the finals and coming from 2 sets down and saving MP vs. Fed in the SF? And then back it up by beating Nadal at the AO final in a 6 hour epic, surely you would laugh a little
Yeah, I would.

Touche, I guess.

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post #476 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:21 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Federer never beat Nole/Rafa in a regular non round robin tournament so how can he start now?
And he has to do that now in order to smell the top 2 . Sure these smaller victories have encouraged him and his glory hunters but he is going against the 2 better players who are no longer juniors but very experienced in everything that this sport has. He had a chance in Australia but failed miserably once again.
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post #477 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 06:33 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Federer never beat Nole/Rafa in a regular non round robin tournament so how can he start now?
And he has to do that now in order to smell the top 2 . Sure these smaller victories have encouraged him and his glory hunters but he is going against the 2 better players who are no longer juniors but very experienced in everything that this sport has. He had a chance in Australia but failed miserably once again.
2010 WTF:
SF: Federer def. Djokovic 6 1 6 4
F: Federer def. Nadal 6 3 3 6 6 1

Last I checked, both SF and F are elimination rounds.
Check your facts before you start yapping pal.

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post #478 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 07:12 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

I think it's quite simple. Federer needs to defend all his points prior to Wimbledon( maybe improve in Rome) and has to win Wimbledon while neither Nole nor Nadal make the final.
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post #479 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 07:37 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Groove View Post
Halle: Djokovic- W, Federer- F, Nadal- SF
I'm sorry but I have to laugh at this one

Also, the top 3 won't be making the semis in every tournament.
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post #480 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-05-2012, 07:46 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by Mystique View Post
2010 WTF:
SF: Federer def. Djokovic 6 1 6 4
F: Federer def. Nadal 6 3 3 6 6 1

Last I checked, both SF and F are elimination rounds.
Check your facts before you start yapping pal.
You seem so sure of yourself
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