Will Federer regain the #1 spot? - Page 30 - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?
Yes, and he will cement his reputation as the best player ever 200 55.56%
No, he will forever be two weeks short of the record 160 44.44%
Voters: 360. You may not vote on this poll

 
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post #436 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:25 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Chanses that Djokovic or Nadal get injured and loses a great part of the season should be around 10%, both getting injured is 1% and then I can be very conservative when I say Federer is 50/50 to become nr1, 0.5%. So I dont know what kind of math you are using there, ofcourse there are better odds for Federer to get nr1, like what if Djokovic's 2011 was freakish and he goes back to 2010 season and Nadal is really declining?
Of course my 'maths' weren't based on any actual assumption. It's just an illustration of me being heavily in the 'no chance'-camp. Yes of course tomorrow all of the top four's private planes may crash and we'd have Ferrer as new #1. I'm not counting on that to happen either.

If anything, I do believe that the points differences between the top bunch of players will indeed get smaller, as I don't believe Djokovic will be able to repeat his 2011 season (at least I haven't yet seen anything pointing in this direction from him so far). The #rs 2, 3, & 4 may surely have a chance to take advantage of that, but if'd be forced to put my cash on anyone to indeed do so, I'd still choose Nadal over the other two.

All of this is merely speculation and the outlooks may well look completely different in a month or two.

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post #437 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:31 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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i don't think you understand just how silly it all is. lol come on people.
How silly is it? Silly like Connors 1982, that silly?

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post #438 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:37 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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How silly is it? Silly like Connors 1982, that silly?
Wouldn't it be a little more realistic to base one's assumptions on the rule rather than on the one or two exceptions that happened in a number of decades of time?

Don't get me wrong btw, I'd be very happy if Fed indeed manages to do the 'impossible' (lest it wouldn't be due to a DelPotro-like disaster happening to one of the other top players, let that be clear!) but come on...
It's enough for me to be happy with what he's managed to achieve so far, and perhaps even more, with his good form right now. Some fans really get too greedy at times!

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post #439 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:47 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Wouldn't it be a little more realistic to base one's assumptions on the rule rather than on the one or two exceptions that happened in a number of decades of time?

Don't get me wrong btw, I'd be very happy if Fed indeed manages to do the 'impossible' (lest it wouldn't be due to a DelPotro-like disaster happening to one of the other top players, let that be clear!) but come on...
It's enough for me to be happy with what he's managed to achieve so far, and perhaps even more, with his good form right now. Some fans really get too greedy at times!
Well, the rule is that a player who is consistant in slams and nonslams tournaments and only really is stopped by 2 players depends on the change of only 2 variables if he wants to get back to nr1 might just get there as these variables change. Variable Nadal is on that age when defensive minded players start to decline fast and varable Djokovic has not proven to be able to dominate tennis year in and out.

That is to say Federer might be unlikely to get back to nr1 but very far away from beeing "impossible" or "almost impossible". Clearly he is the nr3 in the world and not outside top 10 like Sampras in his age.

Connors is in fact the only comparable player in history, he was just as Federer ultra consistant when Borg and Mcenroe reigned and 5-10 years older than them. He was in every slam semifinal at 28-29 and won many tournaments but lost 10 times in a row to Borg and was starting to be dominated by Mcenroe aswell. What happened in 82? Borg retired and Mcenroe got into existensial crisis, Connors suddenly had one hell of a year with 2 slams at age of 30 years old...

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post #440 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:50 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

but I thought he was too old and the surfaces were too slow?
But now he want to take over the guy he always lost to and the most dominant player ever?
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post #441 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:53 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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How silly is it? Silly like Connors 1982, that silly?
Don't ask me. I'm not the expert on silliness.
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post #442 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:54 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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but I thought he was too old and the surfaces were too slow?
But now he want to take over the guy he always lost to and the most dominant player ever?
Federer to take over himself?
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post #443 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:59 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by sexybeast View Post
Well, the rule is that a player who is consistant in slams and nonslams tournaments and only really is stopped by 2 players depends on the change of only 2 variables if he wants to get back to nr1 might just get there as these variables change. Variable Nadal is on that age when defensive minded players start to decline fast and varable Djokovic has not proven to be able to dominate tennis year in and out.
In the past decade there have been plenty of very consistent players only to be stopped by two players (Fedal) over-and-over again, ending up with a meagre one or two slams in total.
I agree Nadal might not be at his peak anymore, but 'fast decline' ? The fellow made nine finals last year if I'm not mistaken. Pretty decent I'd say, even the more as he lost seven of those finals to that certain other guy, who might not be able to repeat his outstanding 2011 again, but that surely doesn't mean that he'll be back to being a (relative) non-factor like he was before.
Don't count out Murray either btw. I know he keeps on getting written off on this forum, but I feel that might well turn out to be a massive mistake.

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Connors is in fact the only comparable player in history, he was just as Federer ultra consistant when Borg and Mcenroe reigned and 5-10 years older than them. He was in every slam semifinal at 28-29 and won many tournaments but lost 10 times in a row to Borg and was starting to be dominated by Mcenroe aswell. What happened in 82? Borg retired and Mcenroe got into existensial crisis, Connors suddenly had one hell of a year with 2 slams at age of 30 years old...
Yes, so for Fed to do something like that, he'll have to count on some distaster happening to nrs. 1 and 2 - and sorry but I wouldn't want that to happen. Of course, not impossible, but very, very unlikely imho - fortunately. Like I said - Connors was an exception, not the rule, and he actually had tons of luck that that happened to his opponents.

I don't see what the problem is btw. I don't think it will happen, you apparently do, based on a comparison with an heavy exception in the past - we'll find out who was right in the future, and I'll be very happy if it's you.

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post #444 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 08:10 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Laver won 4 slams at the same age as Roger, so not out of the question that Fed could get another slam this year.

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post #445 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 08:17 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
In the past decade there have been plenty of very consistent players only to be stopped by two players (Fedal) over-and-over again, ending up with a meagre one or two slams in total.
I agree Nadal might not be at his peak anymore, but 'fast decline' ? The fellow made nine finals last year if I'm not mistaken. Pretty decent I'd say, even the more as he lost seven of those finals to that certain other guy, who might not be able to repeat his outstanding 2011 again, but that surely doesn't mean that he'll be back to being a (relative) non-factor like he was before.
Don't count out Murray either btw. I know he keeps on getting written off on this forum, but I feel that might well turn out to be a massive mistake.


Yes, so for Fed to do something like that, he'll have to count on some distaster happening to nrs. 1 and 2 - and sorry but I wouldn't want that to happen. Of course, not impossible, but very, very unlikely imho - fortunately. Like I said - Connors was an exception, not the rule, and he actually had tons of luck that that happened to his opponents.

I don't see what the problem is btw. I don't think it will happen, you apparently do, based on a comparison with an heavy exception in the past - we'll find out who was right in the future, and I'll be very happy if it's you.
I didnt say Nadal was on fast decline, I said he might get there within a year. He regressed slightly the last year or so but his whole game depends so much that he gets those flat backhand bombs to his forehand in exactly the right time, when he loses another quarter of a step or so his game will be on fast decline. Dont know if it happens this year or next year but at that time Federer will probably still be there.

Djokovic on the other hand is much more unpredictable, he seems to waste so much energy out there, I dont think he has it in him to dominate the tour years back to back, he might still be nr1 this year and next year but not with alot of space to the nr2 and nr3.

I dont even think it will happen, I just think the possibility is not 0%, not 1%, not 10% and not even 25%...

Less than 50% and more than 25%, those are my odds for Federer getting back to nr1.

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post #446 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 08:20 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Don't ask me. I'm not the expert on silliness.
You made me think you were an expert there when you used the word "silly" a dozen times or so in different threads.

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post #447 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 08:25 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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You made me think you were an expert there when you used the word "silly" a dozen times or so in different threads.
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post #448 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 08:25 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

I will repeat it last time, Roger won´t be No.1 i am 100%sure about it, he is 3rd in the world and there is no way he can go past Nole and Nadal at the same time, he can be No.2 for few weeks, but he will end the year 3rd-if not Murray step up, otherwise he can end 4th, but he won´t be No.1, not even for 1 week.

For those delusional Fed fans who are comparing him to past greats like Laver, Connors, even Agassi-this era is most physically demanding era ever with slowest surfaces ever, and Fed is older than his biggest rivals-both of them are physically superior. Roger can be for next 1.5-2years still be factor indoors and on faster HC like this Dubai, Cinci, even USO-if will be fast like usual. But more than half of the tour is slow outdoor HC and clay-where Roger is not No.1 or No.2 for sure.

Than we have grass where he is supposed to be great, but how history showed us he was beaten on grass by more players than only Nadal. Those who think he will win both Wimbledon and olympics are delusional too. Tsonga, Berdych can upset him again, Nadal i think will be big favorit against him on grass, and Nole-Andy-can beat him for sure too.
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post #449 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 09:43 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

I don't think Fed needs to get back to#1. he has nothing to prove to anybody. he has achieved a lot. so, not a big deal.
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post #450 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 09:56 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

He needs to first get to number 2. Lets see when that happens. He definitely has a huuge chance to win a slam if he only has to play either nole or rafa only especially on grass or us open. Then winning a slam especially on grass would net him almost +1700.

But as far as winning a slam, he needs murray to become number 2 and then be on murray's half in the slam while putting nadal in nole's half. Or become number 2 himself, and hope murray ends up in his half.


I feel federer will get number 2 at some point in this year but then get screwed over and end up with nadal in his half. So let us see. Sooner or later he's gonna have to go through nole and rafa at least once in a slam and have to beat them both to avoid having to do it more often than not. That's something I can only see him doing on grass which the points are not as physical.
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