Will Federer regain the #1 spot? - Page 29 - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?
Yes, and he will cement his reputation as the best player ever 200 55.56%
No, he will forever be two weeks short of the record 160 44.44%
Voters: 360. You may not vote on this poll

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post #421 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 01:54 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by networthy View Post
Federer is slowly increasing his chances of regaining the top spot. Let's assume he needs about 11,000 points (I realize Djokovic has more than that now but almost by defition he would have fewer points if another player had that many). Here's how many countable points Federer has picked up since Basel 2011 and one possible roadmap for how he could get to 11,000 by the time Basel 2012 rolls around:

Countable points since Basel 2011 (6 tournaments)
Basel: 500
Paris: 1000
Tour finals: 1500 pts
Australian Open: 720
Rotterdam: 500
Dubai: 500
Subtotal: 4720

Grand Slams (3)
Two finals: 2400 pts (1200 each)
One SF: 720 pts
Subtotal: 3120

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (7)
One win: 1000 pts
One final: 600 pts
Two SF's: 720 pts (360 each)
Three QF's: 540 pts (180 each)
Subtotal: 2860

Other (1)
Olympics bronze: 340 pts
Subtotal: 340

TOTAL: 11,040 points

In the age of Djokovic and Nadal, how doable is this for Federer? By the way, this roadmap assumes he plays 17 tournaments, one fewer than the 18 maximum countable.
This seems a reasonably conservative estimate and potentially achievable even going into the US Open. If we assign those points to tournaments, I don't find the following scenario unimaginable:

Countable points since Basel (6):
Basel: 500
Paris: 1000
Tour finals: 1500 pts
Australian Open: 720
Rotterdam: 500
Dubai: 500
SUB: 4720

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (6)
Cincinatti - W: 1000
Indian Wells/Miami/Madrid - SF: 1080
Rome/Toronto - QF: 360
SUB: 2440 (7160)

Olympics Bronze - 340
Halle - 250
SUB: 590 (7750)

Grand Slams:
US/AO - SF [achieved]: 720
RG/WI - 2F (2400) or QF/SF and W: 2360/2720
SUB: 3080/3040/3400

TOTAL: 10830/10790/11150

What do people think? The Masters/Olympics/Halle predictions seem completely reasonable and only a slight improvement on last years results.. these estimates could even be surpassed.

Of course that leaves RG/Wimb as the big variables. Either 2F or QF/S and a W would be a huge effort.. but that is what is required to become number 1.

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post #422 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 01:58 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Federer has a sizeable lead over Djokovic right now in the Race to Shanghai 2012. Almost 2000 points to be exact.
If he can somehow nab a Masters or two before Shanghai and a Slam, he has a great chance at regaining Number 1, even if temporarily. Thats all he needs really. He has finished the yr Number 1 more than enough times for me as a fan, we just need two more weeks
Go Fed!

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post #423 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 02:04 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.

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post #424 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 02:08 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.
Why would this be happening forever? In 2012/2013 I predict there will be finals without neither Djokovic or Nadal. In any slam except RG Del Potro can beat Nadal and Murray/Federer can beat Djokovic or Murray beat Nadal and Federer beat Djokovic and so on. Tsonga, Berdych and some others can create upsets, even someone like Ferrer can beat Nadal on hardcourts.

Tennis history is not so static, Djokovic-Nadal had their 3 slam finals in a row which doesnt mean they will get another 3 slam finals in a row.

All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
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post #425 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 02:09 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.
This is true to an extent... in the scenario above he could make 2 finals.. or 1 quarter and 1 win (wimbledon) which is not totally out of the question.

Even if he fails to achieve this, he could compensate by performing better in ATP events than I have predicted, which, again, is not totally out of the question. For instance, if the distribution were to change (marginally) as follows:

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (6)
Cincinatti - W: 1000
Indian Wells/Miami/Madrid - (F/2SF): 1320
Rome/Toronto - (SF/QF): 540
SUB: 2860

Grand Slams:
US/AO - SF [achieved]: 720
RG/WI - (F/SF): 1920
SUB: 2640

TOTAL: 10810

As irrelevant or MMish you deem Basels and Rotterdams to be in the overall scheme of things, Federer has won enough over the last 6 months or so to give himself a hefty cushion of points.

Edit: and as sexybeast points out^, Nadal and Djokovic are not totally invulnerable at slams.

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Last edited by FedererSlam; 03-04-2012 at 02:21 PM.
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post #426 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 06:36 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

again and again... Fed will never get to be #1 AGAIN. too many delusional people here. just, get over it. when did Fed win his last slam? please.
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post #427 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 06:38 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

come one people you have to get real. that is just silly.
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post #428 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 06:49 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
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post #429 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 06:58 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

it's all really silly, lol. the many fans of federer have to start to be serious, come on people.
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post #430 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:03 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by ossie View Post
how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
Far more incredible stuff has happened in the past, like who expected Connors to still win a slam when he was beeing dominated by the 5 years younger Borg and 10 years younger Mcenroe 79-81 and hit the age of 30 in 1982 without having won a slam in 4 years. Go take a lwhat happened in 1982....
'
How about Sampras going 2 years without winning a single title and looking like a corpse out there when beeing destroyed by the Hewitts and lesser known players at that time, just to win Usopen 2002?

All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.

Last edited by sexybeast; 03-04-2012 at 07:09 PM.
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post #431 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:06 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by ossie View Post
how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
If Del Potro managed to grab a slam then anything can happen.
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post #432 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:07 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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it's all really silly, lol. the many fans of federer have to start to be serious, come on people.
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
In order for this to happen, Fed should have won the AO, which he couldn't do. It's very nice to have seen him do so brilliantly during the fast/indoor HC-season, but with the slow-and-high-bounce season coming up now - nope.
Even the more 'no!' as after the USO (which I don't see him winning either), he'll have a bucketload of points to defend himself.

I do get this feeling that Fed, and Murray, and perhaps a few other players, will be able to make the gap between #1, #2 and the rest of the field a little less great. Which surely would make things a little more interesting come the remainder of the 2012 season - and even moreso, beyond.

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post #433 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:08 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

has he earned more points than Nole so far in 2011 yet?

if he could win 1 of the summer slams and Nole doesnt - could have some chance

but dont really care, winning a GS beats anything ranking related
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post #434 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:18 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
Chanses that Djokovic or Nadal get injured and loses a great part of the season should be around 10%, both getting injured is 1% and then I can be very conservative when I say Federer is 50/50 to become nr1, 0.5%. So I dont know what kind of math you are using there, ofcourse there are better odds for Federer to get nr1, like what if Djokovic's 2011 was freakish and he goes back to 2010 season and Nadal is really declining?

All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
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post #435 of 1346 (permalink) Old 03-04-2012, 07:20 PM
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Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

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Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
In order for this to happen, Fed should have won the AO, which he couldn't do. It's very nice to have seen him do so brilliantly during the fast/indoor HC-season, but with the slow-and-high-bounce season coming up now - nope.
Even the more 'no!' as after the USO (which I don't see him winning either), he'll have a bucketload of points to defend himself.

I do get this feeling that Fed, and Murray, and perhaps a few other players, will be able to make the gap between #1, #2 and the rest of the field a little less great. Which surely would make things a little more interesting come the remainder of the 2012 season - and even moreso, beyond.
i don't think you understand just how silly it all is. lol come on people.
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