Andy is being so underrated on here right now. People need to get it into their heads that Murray is the 4th best player in the world by a long, long way. He will be in the top 4 for a while yet, no doubt. On the otherthand, why is Tsonga being so overrated all of a sudden? Lots of people tipping him for wimbeldon etc.
Tsonga was nothing different from his usual in RG. His match against Djokovic showed what he is capable of, but everyone already knew that. He is far too inconsistent and can't maintain that level of performance for a whole tournament. He struggled in the early rounds at RG and is just as capable of going out in R3 or something as he is at knocking out a big gun.
You are answering your own question. Murray is consistently losing at GS against top3 players and mostly beating the rest. Tsonga can go on a run and once in a while beat some top3 guys so thats why I think he has more chance to win the whole thing. If I have to put money on one of those guys reaching the semi I would chose Murray.