Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011) - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 10:29 AM Thread Starter
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Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

http://www.playthegame.org/fileadmin..._GAME_2011.pdf

we all know that but still...
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post #2 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 01:39 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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Honestly, I'd be more shocked if I saw evidence to the contrary. Fed and Djokovic have had a semi together almost every major since he entered the top 3, way more than at random. This is obviously because Djokovic had a better chance against Nadal on grass/hardcourts, and the organizers wanted Fedal finals. Same thing with Murray not being in Fed's half. If Murray had more semis with Fed, he probably would have extended his winning record. (His only meetings with Fed were in finals, where Fed obviously had a vast edge in experience). There is a huge incentive for Fedal finals, an with results so heavily skewed, any one who flat out denies draw fixing seems pretty naive.

Now that Nadal and Fed are both on the decline, it probably won't matter so much. Hopefully they give up on the draw fixing.

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post #3 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:01 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

Hmmm, let me start this reply by saying that I'm one of biggest, most dedicated Nole's fans (since 2007). I wake up, if needed, at crazy early hours just to watch Nole's matches....

Having said that, the math from this presentation is horribly, horribly wrong. Every draw is an independent event. Hence, the probability for every new draw that Nole will play Federer is *always* exactly 50%. The draw has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if Nole drew Federer ten consecutive times, the probability that the next draw will produce Federer vs Nole matchup is still 50%.

People get confused because of the fallacy of the "law of averages". I'll paraphrase Wikipidia:
"As invoked in everyday life, this "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a VERY LARGE sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
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post #4 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:03 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

I didn't even open that page because I know it must be a load of tosh.
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post #5 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:10 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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Originally Posted by alex_pgh View Post
Hmmm, let me start this reply by saying that I'm one of biggest, most dedicated Nole's fans (since 2007). I wake up, if needed, at crazy early hours just to watch Nole's matches....

Having said that, the math from this presentation is horribly, horribly wrong. Every draw is an independent event. Hence, the probability for every new draw that Nole will play Federer is *always* exactly 50%. The draw has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if Nole drew Federer ten consecutive times, the probability that the next draw will produce Federer vs Nole matchup is still 50%.

People get confused because of the fallacy of the "law of averages". I'll paraphrase Wikipidia:
"As invoked in everyday life, this "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a VERY LARGE sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
The law of averages is more telling of everything in this world than statistics on a whole could ever wet dream about.

Stop bullshiting and underestimating people's intelligence here.

If I take a coin and flip it in every house of a neighborhood I would guarantee you that the proportion of the outcome between the two faces would be closer to equal than not. Now don't come in here and tell me that the fact that I flip the fucking coin in a different house it has an effect on the overall outcome. It doesn't. In between 15 flips there's a higher probability that there's gonna be a 40%/60% or a relatively close number to that rather than an skewed one.
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post #6 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:13 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

Pure genius, to be honest. Fix it in a way so obvious that nobody actually believes it's fixed.

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post #7 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:18 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

Since august of 2007 (since Djokovic played his first grand slam as world No3), Novak was on Federer's side in grand slams tournaments EVERY TIME... but two times... And guess on which two grand slams Novak was on Nadal's side? French open 2008 and 2010.


So, since august 2007, there's been 13 hard court and grass court grand slam tournaments (where Roger is favorite). And EVERY TIME Novak is in Federer's draw side. Chances of that happening are 1 against 8192.

That's 0.000122%!

So in other words, I'm gonna go play the lottery today, stupidly easy chance for me to win with similar numbers like these.
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post #8 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:19 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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I didn't even open that page because I know it must be a load of tosh.
like you, when a meal smells bad and looks rather dodgy, i close my eyes and shut my nose and pretend it's a fucken banquet


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post #9 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:22 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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Originally Posted by alex_pgh View Post
Hmmm, let me start this reply by saying that I'm one of biggest, most dedicated Nole's fans (since 2007). I wake up, if needed, at crazy early hours just to watch Nole's matches....

Having said that, the math from this presentation is horribly, horribly wrong. Every draw is an independent event. Hence, the probability for every new draw that Nole will play Federer is *always* exactly 50%. The draw has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if Nole drew Federer ten consecutive times, the probability that the next draw will produce Federer vs Nole matchup is still 50%.

People get confused because of the fallacy of the "law of averages". I'll paraphrase Wikipidia:
"As invoked in everyday life, this "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a VERY LARGE sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
But the question here is are the draws fixed? Are they independent and giving anything close to a 50-50 result, and they are not. The chance of getting a coin to flip 15 times on heads out 15 times is incredibly low, precisely because each flip should be independent of one another.

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post #10 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:23 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

I didn't say if it was fixed or not I just said that it's mathematically possible....

To the "genius" who suggested flipping coin in different houses: Coin flips are already independent events. That example that you gave shows that you have no idea what an independent event is.

Again, I'm not saying anything about draws being fixed or not. I'm just saying that "0.000122%" chance from the article is far from making sense.
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post #11 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:29 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

Li.

13 of 15 would be more correct

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post #12 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:33 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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But the question here is are the draws fixed? Are they independent and giving anything close to a 50-50 result, and they are not. The chance of getting a coin to flip 15 times on heads out 15 times is incredibly low, precisely because each flip should be independent of one another.
But precisely because each event is independent the past events won't affect each other. That is to say, the chance of getting 2 tails in a row is 0,25 before you throw the first but after you've thrown it and gotten the tails you can't say that the chance of the second being tails is anything other than 50%... Unless the coin isn't fair of course

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lol, who will beat him? Wawrinka? Berdych? Gulbis? Rosol? Federer?

Only Del Potro can take him out before the semis, and he won't. Nadal is winning the AO, bet your house on it.
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post #13 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:38 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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Stop bullshiting and underestimating people's intelligence here.
You are 'bullshiting' yourself. alex_pgh's and Lopez's explanation is purely sound.

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post #14 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:42 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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But precisely because each event is independent the past events won't affect each other. That is to say, the chance of getting 2 tails in a row is 0,25 before you throw the first but after you've thrown it and gotten the tails you can't say that the chance of the second being tails is anything other than 50%... Unless the coin isn't fair of course
The probability of getting results consecutively is dependent. 13 times you get heads from flipping a coin in a row, the probability is (1/2)^13- a very very small percentage.

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post #15 of 92 (permalink) Old 10-20-2011, 02:48 PM
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Re: Curious case of draws at the ITF Grand Slam tournaments (2008-2011)

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The probability of getting results consecutively is dependent. 13 times you get heads from flipping a coin in a row, the probability is (1/2)^13- a very very small percentage.
The probability of getting heads on the fourteenth is still 50% after you've thrown the 13 though.

Before the fact we can say where we expect the results to settle (about 50% each) and CLT does predict that that will happen: After about an infinite number of repetitions.

Ever been to a roulette table? There are times when the past result are only a certain color.

Or you can test this yourself with Excel for example: Run a simulation of a coin toss about 10 000 times and calculate the number of heads and tails, then you can try to look for consecutive results from the simulation, I bet you'll get runs of many heads or tails if you look at the data.

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
lol, who will beat him? Wawrinka? Berdych? Gulbis? Rosol? Federer?

Only Del Potro can take him out before the semis, and he won't. Nadal is winning the AO, bet your house on it.
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