New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010 - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-14-2011, 05:15 PM Thread Starter
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New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Hello,
I have invented a new concept to rank players I call set importance.
I defined it as the difference between the probability of winning and losing assuming the match equal skill.
For example, in a best of 3 match, the first set worth 0.5, because assuming equal skill, the probability of winning after 1:0 is 3/4 the probability of winning after 0:1 is 1/4.
A 2-1 win factored score is 1.5-0.5 and scaling the sum to 3 make the score of the winner 9/4 and the score of the loser 3/4.
A 3-1 win after leading 2:0 factored score is 1.25-0.25 and after being tied 1-1 is 1.375-0.375.

Full rankings:
http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2011...tiebreaks.html

Here are the top 50 according to the improved rankings I presented in:
My new blog - tennis alternative rankings

Code:
Rankings	Name		Ratings
1	Rafael Nadal		12450.00
2	Roger Federer		10268.11
3	Novak Djokovic		6986.06
4	Andy Murray		6924.04
5	Robin Soderling		5799.09
6	David Nalbandian	4691.21
7	David Ferrer		4690.98
8	Stanislas Wawrinka	4508.57
9	Tomas Berdych		4486.67
10	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	4175.49
11	Andy Roddick		4008.97
12	Mikhail Youzhny		3744.26
13	Jurgen Melzer		3507.34
14	Fernando Verdasco	3451.65
15	Gael Monfils		3403.60
16	Mardy Fish		3250.56
17	Lleyton Hewitt		3191.76
18	Nikolay Davydenko	3127.59
19	Nicolas Almagro		3049.73
20	Ivo Karlovic		3006.61
21	Richard Gasquet		2967.20
22	Marin Cilic		2942.88
23	Viktor Troicki		2796.62
24	Philipp Kohlschreiber	2734.91
25	Marcos Baghdatis	2696.25
26	Ernests Gulbis		2605.16
27	Florian Mayer		2568.79
28	Samuel Querrey		2549.42
29	Juan Carlos Ferrero	2520.66
30	John Isner		2442.69
31	Ivan Ljubicic		2407.65
32	Michael Llodra		2362.03
33	Gilles Simon		2340.68
34	Albert Montanes		2300.04
35	Denis Istomin		2229.67
36	Julien Benneteau	2228.93
37	Thomaz Bellucci		2185.88
38	Feliciano Lopez		2172.47
39	Fernando Gonzalez	2119.63
40	Juan Monaco		2096.65
41	Janko Tipsarevic	2083.16
42	Radek Stepanek		1998.96
43	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez	1996.55
44	Thiemo de Bakker	1995.52
45	Jeremy Chardy		1944.89
46	Philipp Petzschner	1912.58
47	Alexander Dolgopolov	1909.56
48	Juan Ignacio Chela	1874.04
49	Kevin Anderson		1774.81
50	Victor Hanescu		1745.32

Last edited by amirbachar; 03-16-2011 at 06:53 PM. Reason: update
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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-14-2011, 06:41 PM Thread Starter
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Re: New rankings concept - set importance

Oh, and wait for next week for the all-time rankings based on those rankings
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-14-2011, 07:23 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - set importance

Really great work! Surprised to see Nalbandian so high up, he definitely doesn't deserve to be so high, but it's interesting as a projection of his ~talent~ or something like that. Must have taken loads of time to work it all out! Well done

Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?

Roger // Rafa // Raonic // Söderling // Goffin // Ivo // Wawrinka // Baker // Delpo
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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 07:30 PM Thread Starter
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Re: New rankings concept - set importance

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roamed View Post
Really great work! Surprised to see Nalbandian so high up, he definitely doesn't deserve to be so high, but it's interesting as a projection of his ~talent~ or something like that. Must have taken loads of time to work it all out! Well done
It took me a few hours but I only started working on it last week...
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post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 07:36 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Excellent stuff Amirbachar

Ah, appeal moderation? Wanna know what appeal moderation did to me?
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post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 07:53 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

nice work
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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:04 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

thanks for that contribution. i've said it before, i would find it interesting to rate players with a system similar to the elo system in chess, and this comes very close. are you familiar with the elo rating system?

now one thing comes to my mind instantly: you treat every match the same, regardless of whether it's a first round or a final, whether it's a slam or a mickey mouse tournament. is there any way you can weight different matches on different stages?

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Monaco decided to stop playing tennis for real and dedicate to other things, like going on tv, twitter, and posing nude.
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post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:19 PM Thread Starter
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

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Originally Posted by fabolous View Post
thanks for that contribution. i've said it before, i would find it interesting to rate players with a system similar to the elo system in chess, and this comes very close. are you familiar with the elo rating system?

now one thing comes to my mind instantly: you treat every match the same, regardless of whether it's a first round or a final, whether it's a slam or a mickey mouse tournament. is there any way you can weight different matches on different stages?
I am familiar with ELO, but the problem with ELO, is that it doesn't look at future event.
For example, if player A beat player B and then player B succeed well later, it doesn't affect player A's achievement. My system does that since it is based on KRACH...
I am factoring the importance of the tournament, but not the round.
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post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:38 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirbachar View Post
I am familiar with ELO, but the problem with ELO, is that it doesn't look at future event.
For example, if player A beat player B and then player B succeed well later, it doesn't affect player A's achievement. My system does that since it is based on KRACH...
I am factoring the importance of the tournament, but not the round.
how do you factor the tournament? and why not the round?

KRACH ratings is new for me, i will have to read about it first.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExcaliburII View Post
Monaco decided to stop playing tennis for real and dedicate to other things, like going on tv, twitter, and posing nude.
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post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:41 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

This system is horribly, horribly flawed. Nalbandian was not even remotely close to being the sixth best player of 2010.
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post #11 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by fabolous View Post
how do you factor the tournament? and why not the round?

KRACH ratings is new for me, i will have to read about it first.
GS = 2
WTF = 1.5
GS qualifing = 1
ATP = 1 (I didn't want to differentiate it too much...)
Davis cup = 0.75
Challenger = 0.5
ATP qualifing = 0.5

I didn't think factoring the round was a good thing to do, since to get to the final, a player should win his first round too...
The rankings aren't based on the round reached, but on the results themselves.
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post #12 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-15-2011, 08:55 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

I didn't read all, but how is the new ranking working? There is bonus points for the player with the biggest belly?
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post #13 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-16-2011, 06:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Added tiebreaks factoring as well.
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post #14 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-16-2011, 10:41 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Interesting that you took into consideration how the winner of a match performs in subsequent rounds.
But I think is unacceptable that dummy is as low as #179. He's great. He should be in the top 50 ;-)
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post #15 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-16-2011, 11:54 PM
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Re: New rankings concept - Nalbandian is the 6th best player in 2010

Oh, a topic about Nalbandian. [Insert fat joke here]

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