Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish draw? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 04:46 AM Thread Starter
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Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish draw?

Now, with Soda 4 in the rankings, either Federer or Nadal could have a path to the title something like that:

Rd.1 - del Potro
Rd.2 - Karlovic
Rd.3 - Davydenko
Rd.4 - Tsonga
QF - Murray
SF - Djokovic
F - the other top 2 player

First of all, a question for the rankings specialists: is this scenario possible? Are my calculations correct? And, if so, the main question:

Could any of the actual top 2 emerge victorious in the end with such a nightmarish draw ?

I did not add a poll in order to stimulate comments...

Later edit:

Since I'm not sure of my calculations and since your opinion regarding the difficulty of this draw may be different, pls. comment and propose the worst possible draw for Federer/Nadal in this Aussie open, in your opinions...

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...

Last edited by fsoica; 01-09-2011 at 05:31 AM.
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post #2 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:15 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Not possible.

Murray cannot be in QF with either Fed or Nadal, same with Djokovic.
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post #3 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:19 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

It's so horrible to face Karlovic for a Top 10 player.
You don't know what he can do.
He grab a set to Nadal in the last AO.

I actually think Bernard Tomic will easily win career-year mixed doubles slam in 2020.

Jealous? Yeah, you are, you dirty hater.
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post #4 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:20 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

With Soderling winning Brisbane, Murray can play Federer/Nadal in the quarters. But Davydenko will still be top 25 on Monday so he can't play Federer/Nadal in round 3. But Nalbandian can, so replace Davydenko with Nalbandian and Tsonga with Davydenko (if you think that match is harder).

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I think Kokkinakis will be the most successful player born in the 90s.
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post #5 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:22 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by StatRacket View Post
With Soderling winning Brisbane, Murray can play Federer/Nadal in the quarters. But Davydenko will still be top 25 on Monday so he can't play Federer/Nadal in round 3.
why not ?
rd.4 is not about last 16 ?
and rd. 3 is not about last 32 ?

Is there a mechanism i am not aware of ?

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...
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post #6 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:24 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

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Originally Posted by DorianGray7 View Post
Not possible.

Murray cannot be in QF with either Fed or Nadal, same with Djokovic.
Why not ?

Soderling is 4 now, and Murray 5.
Let's say Soda get's Nadal's half, so Djokovic will get Federer's half.
And let's say Murray gets Fed's quarter ...

Any rule not allowing this kind of draw ?

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...
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post #7 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:25 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by DorianGray7 View Post
Not possible.

Murray cannot be in QF with either Fed or Nadal, same with Djokovic.
Murray is ranked 5 now with Soderling's victory in Brisbane
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post #8 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:27 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Answering the question:
Both of the top2 can.
The're like gods, if that isn't in your mind yet, you're not watching too much tennis.

I actually think Bernard Tomic will easily win career-year mixed doubles slam in 2020.

Jealous? Yeah, you are, you dirty hater.
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post #9 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:35 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

I don't think Ivo troubles either of the top 2, and Del Po will probably still be soft from his time away.

In last year's AO, Roger did not face a player outside the top 50: worst ranked player was R2 opponent Hanescu (47).
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post #10 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 05:35 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoica View Post
why not ?
rd.4 is not about last 16 ?
and rd. 3 is not about last 32 ?

Is there a mechanism i am not aware of ?
Yes, there is. Seeds 1-8 in Slams get seeds 25-32 in the round of 32. Seeds 9-16 get seeds 17-24. Check the Grand Slam draws of the last half decade if you don't believe me.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by n8 View Post
I think Kokkinakis will be the most successful player born in the 90s.
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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 07:23 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by StatRacket View Post
Yes, there is. Seeds 1-8 in Slams get seeds 25-32 in the round of 32. Seeds 9-16 get seeds 17-24. Check the Grand Slam draws of the last half decade if you don't believe me.
I understand.
Anything similar regarding 5-8 seeds vs 1-4 seeds ?

Q. Do you think you would have been able to play as well as you played today, or you think you would have pulled out from the game if it wasn't the Masters Cup final?

ROGER FEDERER: No, Roger Federer doesn't pull out. Otherwise he doesn't walk on court (smiling).


After losing to Nalbandian in 2005 TMC final...
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 07:27 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoica View Post
I understand.
Anything similar regarding 5-8 seeds vs 1-4 seeds ?
4R :

1-4 v 13-16
5-8 v 9-12
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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 08:18 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

first round is quite horrible for Rafa, but i favor Nadal for the rest of the draw. All i can say is it would be a well-deserved GS title!
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 09:20 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Quote:
Originally Posted by fsoica View Post
Now, with Soda 4 in the rankings, either Federer or Nadal could have a path to the title something like that:

Rd.1 - del Potro
Rd.2 - Karlovic
Rd.3 - Davydenko
Rd.4 - Tsonga
QF - Murray
SF - Djokovic
F - the other top 2 player

First of all, a question for the rankings specialists: is this scenario possible? Are my calculations correct? And, if so, the main question:

Could any of the actual top 2 emerge victorious in the end with such a nightmarish draw ?

I did not add a poll in order to stimulate comments...

Later edit:

Since I'm not sure of my calculations and since your opinion regarding the difficulty of this draw may be different, pls. comment and propose the worst possible draw for Federer/Nadal in this Aussie open, in your opinions...
This looks like a nightmarish draw for Rafa and not so much for Roger, pigeons all the way for him, even replacing Denko with Bandy in round 3 (round 3 doesn't yet mean that Bandy is in super duper form able to beat him).

But this draw could never happen to Rafa ever. Will be more like bye, QF, QF, surprise QF, mega surprise QF, Murray, hypermega surprise non seeded, wore off Federer.

A mix of the two would make it competitive, but the latter would mean number 10
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 01-09-2011, 09:21 AM
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Re: Which one of the top2 could emerge victorious after this kind of nightmarrish dra

Nadal surely not but he neither not need to be worried because such thing can't happen to him
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