Re: Will Federer ever reach #1 again? Will it be in 2011?
I know there are threads on this. But they are already filled with lots of garbage, so I thought I'd try a new one. This one will be filled with garbage shortly too, but I was hoping to get 1 or 2 good posts with some analysis.
AO will probably tell us if this is possible. Fed has the champions points to defend (2,000) and Rafa only QF (360). Rafa could (easily) increase his current ~3,300 point lead by another ~2,000.
I think the primary factor is how well Nadal plays / does Nadal stay healthy. Federer has been as consistent as they come. His game is still good enough. He has good chances to make up some ground on Rafa at Miami, IW, and Rome (maybe 1,000 points). Fed did not even play Monte Carlo last year (is he playing this year?). Then more chances at RG, and Wimby. He only has 720 combined at these slams (QF points). This is where he has the best chance.
But, if Nadal dominates clay like last year, there really isn't much hope. If he slips a bit and Federer is able to win Wimbledon (certainly possible), he's got a shot I think.
Everyone is going to say it is impossible, but Rafa only has points to defend starting with Monte Carlo and finishing with Wimby. 7,000 total points. He has no chance to gain (all champions points). In that stretch, Federer only has 1,330 points to defend.
Given Fed's form at WTF, I think it is certainly possible.
Last edited by r2473; 12-29-2010 at 07:52 PM.