Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1? - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 04:08 AM Thread Starter
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Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

It´s no secret that after the AO Federer started pretty much sucking (to his standards of course). In fact he sucked for long enough to lose the number 1 spot, which happened around Wimbledon. As of now, he is 1 week short of Sampras´ record of weeks at number 1. It would seem that after Wimbledon, when he got some time off and started working on his attacking game, he decided he wants to fight for rankings once more. Or, at least, he has stopped having random losses.

Look, since after the AO and up to Wimbledon his results have been:

-Indian Wells: Rd 32 (Lost to N°33 Bahgdatis)
-Miami: Rd16 (Lost to N°20 Berdych)
-Rome: Rd32 (Lost to N°40 Gulbis)
-Estoril: Semifinal (Lost to N°34 Montañes)
-Madrid: Final (Lost to N°3 Nadal)
-Roland Garros: Quarters (Lost to N°7 Soderling)
-Halle: Final (Lost to N°32 Hewitt)
-Wimbledon: Quarters (Lost to N°13 Berdych)

During this period of 8 tournaments played, he had a 17-8 record, with no titles and losses to some of his favorite bitches, including megabitch Soderling and Hewitt, who simply isn´t the same player anymore. His record against top 10 players was 0-2.

Now, from Wimbledon on, after his time off with the purpose of retooling his game (though it seems more of a retooling of his mind actually) these have been his results:

-Toronto: Final (Lost to N°4 Murray)
-Cincinnati: Won (Defeated N°35 Fish)
-USO: Semifinal (Lost to N°3 Djokovic)
-Shanghai: Final (Lost to N°4 Murray)
-Stockholm: Won (Defeated N°47 Mayer)
-Basel: Won (Defeated N°3 Djokovic)
-Paris: Semifinal (Lost to N°14 Monfils)
-World Tour Finals: Won (Defeated N°1 Nadal)

In this stretch of 8 tournaments, he amassed a 33-4 record, with losses to people you know can beat him (Except Monfils of course). In this period he won 4 tournaments, reached the finals of two 1000s and semis of USO. His record against top 10 players was 13-3.

Now, I am not, by any means, suggesting there will be a second period of dominance by Federer, those days are long gone. What i am saying is he seems to have gotten better at avoiding random losses. Yes, he is still losing more than he is winning, but making the finals at 3 out of the last 4 AMS 1000 and winning the WTF is quite impressive for any player.

The only "bad" result here is his USO SF, but still, he was defeated by a Djokovic who fought to the last point. Fed was defeated there, he didn´t defeat himself like many like to think.

So, what do you say? Can he keep this up for next year? If so, and providing Nadal lowers his standards a bit, i say he could have a shor stint at number 1...

AO '04 '06 '07 '10
RG '09
Wimby '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '09 '12
USO '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
WTF ´03 ´04 ´06 ´07 ´10 ´11

Last edited by kyleskywalker007; 11-28-2010 at 06:57 PM.
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post #2 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 04:40 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

i guess you have a point here he knows that he has a great chance of returning to number 1 after RG if he does a good performance there and gets a RR or Win there
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post #3 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 04:49 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

I believe Roger is also short of Pete's record of finishing years as the World Number 1 player. If so, I can see no way he can come back and get that record.

EDIT: Pete finished the year as the World's Number 1 player for 6 straight years. So with today's field of Tennis Players I see no way Roger will ever get that record.

Last edited by 16681; 11-07-2010 at 05:08 AM.
post #4 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:03 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

If Roger wins tomorrow at Basel, wins Paris and wins World Tour Finals.

How far is he off? If he continues this hypothetical streak and wins AO won't he get back the No. 1 spot?

I guess Nadal holding 6000 - 9000 points is almost impossible to overcome. lol
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post #5 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:07 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

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post #6 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:08 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

From what he's saying it sounds like he's doesn't believe he can do it, and he's just focusing on winning any tournaments he can win, even if he no longer is able to win slams. Winning non-slams is a motivation to continue playing. But to chase Rafa down he MUST win slams.
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post #7 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:11 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

I think he WANTS to regain number one. He seems to now be taking lesser tournaments seriously, which he didn't seem to do from a period starting in 2007 and going all the way up to this summer, where he seemed to be all about the slams.

However, I consider it HIGHLY unlikely that he can regain number one unless Nadal is injured - like in 2009. As I have argued loads of times before, including back in early 2010 when everybody was writing Nadal off, the calendar HEAVILY favours someone who can dominate on one surface. As I've argued before, if Nadal continues to be unbeatable on clay, all he has to do is post decent results outside of clay (no need for winning other slams, for instance) and he'd be number one, unless someone puts in a performance like Federer in his heyday. And since noone can do that, Nadal will continue to be #1 for as long as he can manage to utterly dominate clay.

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post #8 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:23 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

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Originally Posted by BlueSwan View Post
I think he WANTS to regain number one. He seems to now be taking lesser tournaments seriously, which he didn't seem to do from a period starting in 2007 and going all the way up to this summer, where he seemed to be all about the slams.

However, I consider it HIGHLY unlikely that he can regain number one unless Nadal is injured - like in 2009. As I have argued loads of times before, including back in early 2010 when everybody was writing Nadal off, the calendar HEAVILY favours someone who can dominate on one surface. As I've argued before, if Nadal continues to be unbeatable on clay, all he has to do is post decent results outside of clay (no need for winning other slams, for instance) and he'd be number one, unless someone puts in a performance like Federer in his heyday. And since noone can do that, Nadal will continue to be #1 for as long as he can manage to utterly dominate clay.
This is all true, and especially in 2011 because Rafa really isn't defending much non-slam points apart from the clay season. Whereas if he'd won Indian Wells or won Toronto or Cincy or Shanghai in 2010 it'd have been a different story. 2011 in particular is a great chance to continue atop the rankings. 2009 was a freak situation because Rafa completely skipped Wimbledon and all the points there.
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post #9 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:35 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

Nadal is defending an awful lot during clay season...
However, Djokovic will pick up lots of points AO through RG and Fed has to defend AO... and don't count out Murray and Soderling.



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post #10 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:45 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

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Originally Posted by djokovicgonzalez View Post
Nadal is defending an awful lot during clay season...
However, Djokovic will pick up lots of points AO through RG and Fed has to defend AO... and don't count out Murray and Soderling.
I bet Rafa is awfully scared of that clay season, all the big threats like Verdasco and Ferrer
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post #11 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:48 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

i dont think federer will finish year end number 1 ever again.
just not as consistent.
young players rising fast.
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post #12 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 05:56 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

Points accumulated since 25 July (week of Los Angeles, Umag and Gstaad):
Code:
13 Week
Rank	ATP     Player (country)        Points*    
1	1	Rafael Nadal (ESP)	3220 pts
2	2	Roger Federer (SUI)	3170 pts
3	3	Novak Djokovic (SRB)	2600 pts
4	4	Andy Murray (GBR)	2510 pts
5	10	Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)	1230 pts
6	14	Gael Monfils (FRA)	1055 pts
7	20	Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)	1020 pts
8	5	Robin Soderling (SWE)	900 pts
9	29	David Nalbandian (ARG)	880 pts
10	18	Mardy Fish (USA)	870 pts
11	12	Jurgen Melzer (AUT)	800 pts
12	8	David Ferrer (ESP)	760 pts
13	27	Richard Gasquet (FRA)	675 pts
14	32	Viktor Troicki (SRB)	660 pts
15	52	Gilles Simon (FRA)	595 pts
16	9	Andy Roddick (USA)	585 pts
17	22	Samuel Querrey (USA)	565 pts
18	30	G. Garcia-Lopez (ESP)	565 pts
19	21	Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)540 pts
20	16	Nicolas Almagro (ESP)	540 pts
21	17	Ivan Ljubicic (CRO)	530 pts
22	11	Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)	505 pts
23	6	Tomas Berdych (CZE)	505 pts
24	34	P. Kohlschreiber (GER)	505 pts
25	7	Fernando Verdasco (ESP)	505 pts
26	49	Jeremy Chardy (FRA)	495 pts
27	40	J.I. Chela (ARG)	495 pts
28	41	Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)	470 pts
29	23	Albert Montanes (ESP)	460 pts
30	19	John Isner (USA)	450 pts
31	53	Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR)	445 pts
32	43	Denis Istomin (UZB)	410 pts
33	15	Marin Cilic (CRO)	390 pts
34	25	Juan Monaco (ARG)	380 pts
35	46	Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)	370 pts
36	45	Thiemo de Bakker (NED)	355 pts
37	44	Tommy Robredo (ESP)	345 pts
38	31	Feliciano Lopez (ESP)	345 pts
39	24	J.C. Ferrero (ESP)	340 pts
40	58	Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ)	335 pts
*last 13 weeks, no tournaments restrictions (e.g. unlimited ATP250s), only tour level points.

This is not including this week so since Canada Federer has actually gotten more points than Nadal despite the Spaniard's US Open win.

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post #13 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 06:10 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king View Post
I bet Rafa is awfully scared of that clay season, all the big threats like Verdasco and Ferrer
Djokovic and Ferrer (if he can stop choking ) can beat him on clay, I think... so can Soderling and probably delPo
One early loss during cc (or injury) is lots of points gone.



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post #14 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 06:18 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by StatRacket View Post
Points accumulated since 25 July (week of Los Angeles, Umag and Gstaad):
Code:
13 Week
Rank	ATP     Player (country)        Points*    
1	1	Rafael Nadal (ESP)	3220 pts
2	2	Roger Federer (SUI)	3170 pts
3	3	Novak Djokovic (SRB)	2600 pts
4	4	Andy Murray (GBR)	2510 pts
5	10	Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)	1230 pts
6	14	Gael Monfils (FRA)	1055 pts
7	20	Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)	1020 pts
8	5	Robin Soderling (SWE)	900 pts
9	29	David Nalbandian (ARG)	880 pts
10	18	Mardy Fish (USA)	870 pts
11	12	Jurgen Melzer (AUT)	800 pts
12	8	David Ferrer (ESP)	760 pts
13	27	Richard Gasquet (FRA)	675 pts
14	32	Viktor Troicki (SRB)	660 pts
15	52	Gilles Simon (FRA)	595 pts
16	9	Andy Roddick (USA)	585 pts
17	22	Samuel Querrey (USA)	565 pts
18	30	G. Garcia-Lopez (ESP)	565 pts
19	21	Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)540 pts
20	16	Nicolas Almagro (ESP)	540 pts
21	17	Ivan Ljubicic (CRO)	530 pts
22	11	Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)	505 pts
23	6	Tomas Berdych (CZE)	505 pts
24	34	P. Kohlschreiber (GER)	505 pts
25	7	Fernando Verdasco (ESP)	505 pts
26	49	Jeremy Chardy (FRA)	495 pts
27	40	J.I. Chela (ARG)	495 pts
28	41	Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)	470 pts
29	23	Albert Montanes (ESP)	460 pts
30	19	John Isner (USA)	450 pts
31	53	Sergey Stakhovsky (UKR)	445 pts
32	43	Denis Istomin (UZB)	410 pts
33	15	Marin Cilic (CRO)	390 pts
34	25	Juan Monaco (ARG)	380 pts
35	46	Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)	370 pts
36	45	Thiemo de Bakker (NED)	355 pts
37	44	Tommy Robredo (ESP)	345 pts
38	31	Feliciano Lopez (ESP)	345 pts
39	24	J.C. Ferrero (ESP)	340 pts
40	58	Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ)	335 pts
*last 13 weeks, no tournaments restrictions (e.g. unlimited ATP250s), only tour level points.

This is not including this week so since Canada Federer has actually gotten more points than Nadal despite the Spaniard's US Open win.
Yes, so if Federer can outscore Nadal from now and until after Wimbledon, he'll be number one. But who on earth thinks he can do that with much of that period being on clay, including three masters events and a slam, and much of the rest being on slooooow hard where Nadal is also very strong. Anyone who wants to be number one ahead of Nadal would logically have to give themselves a HUGE lead during the grass-fast hard-indoor period from July to November.

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post #15 of 183 (permalink) Old 11-07-2010, 06:30 AM
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Re: Federer preparing his last assault for Number 1?

rafa needs to grab some points at the tour finals because he has alot of points to defend in the middle of next year.

come on rafa, u can do it my boy.
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