Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 08:45 AM Thread Starter
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Question Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

http://www.crunchsports.com/category...-201003030001/
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Here is a complete list of the odds for the players that we think should be taken seriously for the 2010 world number 1 year end ranking (all Sky Bet odds):

1. Roger Federer, -200 (1/2)
2. Rafael Nadal, +400 (4/1)
3. Andy Murray, +500 (5/1)
4. Novak Djokovic, +650 (13/2)
5. Juan Martin Del Potro, +1000 (10/1)
6. Marin Cilic, +3300 (33/1)

Federer already has the Australian Open in his back pocket and the 2000 accompanying ranking points for taking the title down. He also has about a 3000 point lead on those that are chasing him in the ranks but there are a ton of events remaining in the 2010 season and tons of opportunities to chip away at that lead.

If you are going to bet this proposition then take Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic as those are the two main threats to Federer on tour at the moment.

Rafael Nadal's price of +400 might be tempting but he is far too injury prone at this point in his career to be bet in this proposition and he could find himself out of the top 5 before season's end. He obviously has the potential to be the world number 1 player, as he was the best just 1 year ago, however you need longer odds than what he is currently priced at to risk betting him.
Do we see such rapid changes in other sports over the course of a year, like in soccer, golf, basketball etc. ?
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post #2 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 08:50 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

Golf

On Nadal bumping him on the changeover, Rosol said: "It's ok, he wanted to take my concentration; I knew he would try something".


Wilander on Dimitrov - "He has mind set on imitating Federer and yes it looks good. But he has no idea what to do on the court".

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Originally Posted by Filo V. View Post
I definitely would have preferred Gaba winning as he needs the points much more, but Jan would have beaten him anyway. I expect Hajek to destroy Machado, like 6-1 6-2.
Machado wins 6-2 6-1
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post #3 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 08:53 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

I would have predicted Mickelson's success after Woods dramas. I don't know if I'd call golf unpredictable in terms of predicting the top 2 each year, but overall it is more unpredictable than tennis in terms of top 50. But Woods was always more of a lock than Federer at the top before the dramas, because we always thought Rafa would take over.
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post #4 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 08:57 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

It's funny I was reading a "Is Tiger woods done?" thread on an American sports forum the other day.
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post #5 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:12 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

Yeah I guess in terms of predicting major/slam winners, golf is a lot more unpredictable (because you get an out-of-the-blue winner often in golf majors). But in terms of who's finishing number one in the world, it has been hard to predict whether Federer or Rafa would over the last 3 years, harder than predicting who'd finish number one in golf.
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post #6 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:17 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

I think it is. I honestly wouldn't believe a few months ago that Nadal can win 3 slams this year. Especially after USO 2009, AO 2010 and losing to mugs like Ljubicic in masters events He was "done" as few months ago, now he's in GOAT discussion and guaranteed another year finish as #1. If that's not a fast change, I don't know what is.
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post #7 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:19 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
I think it is. I honestly wouldn't believe a few months ago that Nadal can win 3 slams this year. Especially after USO 2009, AO 2010 and losing to mugs like Ljubicic in masters events He was "done" as few months ago, now he's in GOAT discussion and guaranteed another year finish as #1. If that's not a fast change, I don't know what is.
And same with Federer in 2009, he won 2 slams when people were considering Rafa a lock for Roland Garros at least (with good reason).
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post #8 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:21 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)
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post #9 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:26 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)
Yeah its easy to predict Rafa or Federer, but for the last 3 years most people would have got it wrong at some stage as to which of the 2 would be ranked number 1.

Yeah, for the mainstream media though they seem to struggle with even the simplest of things like their predictions of Murray winning slams etc. (in fact some real tennis 'experts' were predicting Murray).

I'm not a golf fan but I was able to predict Woods would finish each year ranked number one, and then at the start of 2010 I correctly predicted Woods would fall, and Mickelson succeed. And I NEVER watch golf and don't read about golf.

Whereas I bet a non-tennis fan would NOT have predicted that Rafa would dominate 2010 (rather than Federer). I certainly had no doubt Rafa would be the RG/Wimbledon winner this year because I knew the tendonitis was getting better treatment early in 2010.
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post #10 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:27 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Originally Posted by latso View Post
Tennis has to be the most predictable sport for ppl who know it.

Not only because from the last 27 GSs 25 were won by two players (or smth like that)
21 out of the last 23 actually.

I don't think it will happen any time soon to be honest (after Fedal retire). Partially the reason is the ridiculous domination of Federer and Nadal on natural surfaces.

For example from 2005 RG to 2010 Wimbledon nobodyexcept Fed/Nadal won at those 2 slams. That's 50% of year's slams on lockdown by just 2 players.

Federer dominated hard courts, especially USO, with Nadal slowly improving there as well (2 HC slams in last 2 years, which is pretty good). So we are living in an era of 2 hugely dominant players, with others fighting for scraps, basically.
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post #11 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:39 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
21 out of the last 23 actually.

I don't think it will happen any time soon to be honest (after Fedal retire). Partially the reason is the ridiculous domination of Federer and Nadal on natural surfaces.

For example from 2005 RG to 2010 Wimbledon nobodyexcept Fed/Nadal won at those 2 slams. That's 50% of year's slams on lockdown by just 2 players.

Federer dominated hard courts, especially USO, with Nadal slowly improving there as well (2 HC slams in last 2 years, which is pretty good). So we are living in an era of 2 hugely dominant players, with others fighting for scraps, basically.
absolutely

thanks for the correction, didn't want to dig deeper

But yeah, imo it's a predictable sport. It also takes an elaboration on defining "predictable", coz if we look the bigger picture, a dominatd by a couple of individuals sport is a predictable one.
Like F1 in the Schumi era or now the Rallies with Loeb.

But if we talk betting wise, it is just as any other sport - if you know it well, it's predictable, if not - it's not

If i have to state one unpredictable for me sport (nothing to do with tennis, so sorry for the off topic) it's the WTA
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post #12 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:41 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.
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post #13 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:45 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king View Post
The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.
yes, i was shocked for days

i expected smth bad to happen to our planet

no irony
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post #14 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 09:56 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

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Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king View Post
The biggest upset I've ever seen in sport is Rafa losing to Soderling 2009 RG.
Awww, not even close.

On Nadal bumping him on the changeover, Rosol said: "It's ok, he wanted to take my concentration; I knew he would try something".


Wilander on Dimitrov - "He has mind set on imitating Federer and yes it looks good. But he has no idea what to do on the court".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Filo V. View Post
I definitely would have preferred Gaba winning as he needs the points much more, but Jan would have beaten him anyway. I expect Hajek to destroy Machado, like 6-1 6-2.
Machado wins 6-2 6-1
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post #15 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-17-2010, 10:40 AM
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Re: Is tennis the most unpredictable sport in the world?

Yes tennis is an extremly unpredictable sport. We have 2 guys who have won 25 out of the last 30 slams. Fucking hard to predict.
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