I thought everybody was saying that Nadal will win. I know I am. I personally think that Djokovic is the biggest threat to Nadal winning, not Federer who has to be close to his peak to beat Nadal due to mathup issues.
If this was a MS 1000 tourney on a HC, then yes, Nole is a nightmare of an opponent for Rafa, he has a 7-3 advantage against Rafa on HC, winning the last 3 matches in a row they have played.
BUT...this is a grand slam final, best of 5 sets, I doubt that Nole has the mental strength and physical endurance to keep up with Rafa over 5 sets, it just seems to be too tough a task for Nole to handle, but we will just wait and see, we "could" be in for a shock.
Nole has NEVER beaten Rafa in a big match or in a final (Hamburg 2008 SF, Queens 2008 Final, 2008 Olympics SF, Madrid 2009 SF, French Open 2006, 2007, 2008 and the Wimbledon match in 2007 where Nole retired in the 3rd set because he was injured or exhausted).
I agree that Nole has the game to pulverise Rafa on this surface, but Rafa will just be too tough in a grand slam final, he has an 8-2 W/L record in grand slam finals, should a Nole/Rafa US Open final take place, I will pick Rafa to win in 4 sets. Don't get me wrong, Nole is my 2nd favourite player, so I'm not hating on him at all, just that I'm telling it the way I see it.
Just my $0.02