Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside) - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 05:47 PM Thread Starter
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Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Well, I dont know if anyone noticed, but Bwin is on the Nalbandwagon as most of this forum is

And is for the Us Open. How strange and logic this can be?



US Open - New York (USA) - Men
Winner

Ganador del torneo
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 2.20
Roger Federer (SUI) 3.10
Andy Murray (GBR) 6.95
David Nalbandian (ARG) 10.00
Robin Soderling (SWE) 12.00
Juan Martín Del Potro(ARG) 12.00
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 15.00
Tomas Berdych (CZE) 17.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)21.00
Andy Roddick (USA) 30.00
Marin Cilic (CRO) 30.00
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 40.00
Sam Querrey (USA) 43.00
Nicolás Almagro (ESP) 44.00
John Isner (USA) 45.00
Ernests Gulbis (LAT) 50.00
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 55.00
David Ferrer (ESP) 70.00
Gael Monfils (FRA) 70.00
Juergen Melzer (AUT) 72.00
Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 75.00
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 130.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 130.00
Mikhail Youhzny (RUS) 135.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 140.00
Feliciano López (ESP) 150.00
Albert Montañés (ESP) 150.00
Radek Stepanek (CZE) 150.00
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 160.00
Gilles Simon (FRA) 175.00
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 180.00
Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 190.00
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) 190.00
Fernando González (CHI) 200.00
Juan Mónaco (ARG) 250.00


Last edited by OldSilentHill; 08-12-2010 at 07:54 PM.
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post #2 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 05:53 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

4th favourite is an absolute joke ofcourse. Maybe 10th or 15th but defo not 4th. Let's just first see how his body holds up. I don't think he'll manage two long 5 setters in a row.
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post #3 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 06:03 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

even if dave wins the USO his run wont last. he is not a consistent player, and therefor probably has no chance to win the USO. no never know for sure though.
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post #4 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 06:53 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSilentHill View Post
Juan Martín Del Potro (ARG) 12.00

I write in english as Nadal speaks it.


Rafa in Two or Three
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post #5 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:16 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Since bwin closes the accounts of anyone who wins, inevitably their prices will be wonky - you're not getting smart money there.

Pinnacle have:

Nadal 3.65
Fed 3.90
Murray 6.52
Djoko 16.52
Soderling 19.52
Berdy 20.48
Nalbandian 22.00
Roddick 24.53



wrt tsonga/delpot, they take longer to drift downward with conventional books, cos there's no option to bet against them. Makes little difference though, unless they're one of the top favourites.
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post #6 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:27 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

bwin are idiots, JMDP being at 12/1 is evidence for that alone

Paddypower is a good one, they've got Nalby at 20/1 - http://www.paddypower.com/bet/tennis/mens-us-open

Andy Murray ~ Richard Gasquet ***David Nalbandian*** Rafael Nadal ~ Gilles Simon
Paw Ranking (Race) : ? (?)
Brought PAW to MTF in 2004
Year end no. 1 in 2012

PAW Titles : 9 (WIMBLEDON '12, Washington '11, Acapulco '08, Stockholm '07, Houston '05, Monte Carlo TMS '04, Newport '04, Beijing '04, Moscow '04)
Finalist: 15 (Buenos Aires '12, Stockholm '11, Barcelona '11, Queen's 09, Nottingham '08, Las Vegas '08, Adelaide '08, Tokyo '06, St Poelten '06, Australian Open '05, St Poelten '05, Newport '05, Wimbledon '04, Houston '04, Basel '04)
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post #7 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:32 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Since bwin closes the accounts of anyone who wins, inevitably their prices will be wonky - you're not getting smart money there.

Pinnacle have:

Nadal 3.65
Fed 3.90
Murray 6.52
Djoko 16.52
Soderling 19.52
Berdy 20.48
Nalbandian 22.00
Roddick 24.53



wrt tsonga/delpot, they take longer to drift downward with conventional books, cos there's no option to bet against them. Makes little difference though, unless they're one of the top favourites.
Pinnacle's odds make far more sense, that's for sure. But then again Bwin is a beginner's sportsbook.
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post #8 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:36 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Nalbandian was 100/1 just over a week ago, needless to say i got a piece of that action.

Juan Martin Del Potro


But he lost 23 times against you.
's right. We have to also throw into the mix. But I do not think it is currently the decisive factor. But he has achieved in my opinion too much. Maybe this is crucial if I move him even closer after major victories. But 14 or 17 Grand Slam titles is a significant difference. At the present time there is no question that he must be the greater player than me.

David Nalbandian
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post #9 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:36 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

bet365's odds right now:

Roger Federer 3.50
Rafael Nadal 3.50
Andrew Murray 5.00
Novak Djokovic 10.00
Robin Soderling 13.00
Tomas Berdych 15.00
Juan Martin Del Potro 15.00
Andy Roddick 17.00
David Nalbandian 21.00
Marin Cilic 26.00
Nikolay Davydenko 34.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 41.00
Fernando Verdasco 51.00
Ernests Gulbis 67.00
Mardy Fish 67.00
Sam Querrey 67.00
John Isner 67.00
Lleyton Hewitt 81.00
Richard Gasquet 101.00
Fernando Gonzalez 101.00
Gael Monfils 101.00
David Ferrer 126.00
Marcos Baghdatis 126.00
James Blake 151.00
Ivo Karlovic 151.00
Stanislas Wawrinka 151.00
Mikhail Youzhny 151.00
Gilles Simon 151.00
Ivan Ljubicic 151.00
Tommy Haas 151.00
Radek Stepanek 201.00
Viktor Troicki 201.00
Juan Monaco 201.00
Nicolas Almagro 201.00
Jurgen Melzer 201.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber 251.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero 251.00
Tommy Robredo 301.00
Jeremy Chardy 301.00
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post #10 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:38 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

21 for Nalby looks good odds to me.
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post #11 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:41 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fed=ATPTourkilla View Post
21 for Nalby looks good odds to me.
I agree. 20-22 are good odds for him right now, 12 definitely not
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post #12 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 08:44 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Did nobody catch him before the nalbandwagon was in full flow like me?

Juan Martin Del Potro


But he lost 23 times against you.
's right. We have to also throw into the mix. But I do not think it is currently the decisive factor. But he has achieved in my opinion too much. Maybe this is crucial if I move him even closer after major victories. But 14 or 17 Grand Slam titles is a significant difference. At the present time there is no question that he must be the greater player than me.

David Nalbandian
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post #13 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 11:05 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibracadabra View Post
Did nobody catch him before the nalbandwagon was in full flow like me?
aye, 75/1 at skybet.

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post #14 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-11-2010, 11:08 PM
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

There's no chance fat Dave has a hope in hell of winning the USO - those New York burgers and pizzas will be too tempting
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post #15 of 41 (permalink) Old 08-12-2010, 07:51 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Is the Nalbandwagon jump irrational? Not for the money-makers (example inside)

Updated Bwin bets for the US Open


US Open - New York (USA) - Mens

Winner

Rafael Nadal (ESP) 2.20
Roger Federer (SUI) 3.10
David Nalbandian (ARG) 5.00
Andy Murray (GBR) 6.80
Juan Martín Del Potro (ARG) 12.00
Robin Soderling (SWE) 15.00
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 16.00
Tomas Berdych (CZE) 17.00
Andy Roddick (USA) 34.00
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) 40.00
Sam Querrey (USA) 43.00
Nicolás Almagro (ESP) 44.00
John Isner (USA) 45.00
Ernests Gulbis (LAT) 50.00
Marin Cilic (CRO) 50.00
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 50.00
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 55.00
Gael Monfils (FRA) 70.00
Juergen Melzer (AUT) 72.00
Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 75.00
David Ferrer (ESP) 80.00
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 130.00
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 130.00
Mikhail Youhzny (RUS) 135.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 140.00
Feliciano López (ESP) 150.00
Radek Stepanek (CZE) 150.00
Albert Montañés (ESP) 150.00
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 160.00
Gilles Simon (FRA) 175.00
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 180.00
Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 190.00
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) 190.00
Fernando González (CHI) 200.00


I´m really wondering if Bwin is not actually making the best move here. While the other bet sites are less bandwagonners, maybe they have some % on loosing money with Nalby and Bwin doesnt want to take that risk.

Maybe they want to focus in another players for their bussiness.
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