Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:16 PM Thread Starter
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Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

I think we're all aware that despite Federer clearly trailing in his head to head with Nadal that he actually has won nearly as many points as Nadal in their matches. This is the breakdown for their 21 matches to date:

Match W-L: Nadal leads 14-7 (66.7%)
Point W-L: Nadal leads 2306-2257 (50.5%)


So Nadal has won two thirds of his matches against Roger despite only leading by 49 points. But it occured to me that this statistic might be even more drastic if we remove the one outlier in all their matches: the FO 2008 beatdown. This is the only match in which either player won so convincingly and I think it distorts the figures somewhat. The breakdown looks as follows once you eliminate this match:

Match W-L: Nadal leads 13-7 (65%)
Point W-L: Nadal leads 2214-2205 (50.1)


If that isn't the clearest indication of Nadal's mental domination over Federer, especially on the big points, I don't know what is. Nadal has managed to win 13/20 matches with only 9 more points in total. Remarkable.

In fact, if you eliminate Federer's next most comphrehensive loss, points-wise, to Nadal (the 6-4 6-4 loss in Monte Carlo 07) we would have:

Match W-L: Nadal leads 12-7 (63.2%)
Point W-L: Federer leads 2146-2141 (50.1)


Federer would lead the points total but trail clearly in head to head. All credit to Nadal for being a mental juggernaut but I think this statistic is ridiculous. How on earth do you win more points than an individual but still lose to them repeatedly?

I wonder if this bizarre statistic is only present in the Nadal-Federer head to head? I know that Roger has a tendency to lose matches despite winning more points not only against Nadal. Does anyone know of any other tennis head to head in which this kind of thing has happened over the course of several matches? I have a feeling this may be more common than I think. It would interesting if someone did this for an even more lopsided head to head. Maybe points breakdowns tend to be about 50% for most head to heads?

Just so I don't incite a tard war I'll add this disclaimer: obviously by manipulating the figures and eliminating matches I could make the gap even bigger for either player but in truth I don't think it's statisically relevant to eliminate any match other than F0 2008; and that match only because it is very out of the norm for their head to head. I only removed Monte Carlo 07 to further demonstrate the discrepancy between points/match wins, realistically it shouldn't be ignored.

Last edited by Arakasi; 05-31-2010 at 10:26 PM.
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:22 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

Nadal simply plays the big points better.

Look up the break point stats and you'll see a pretty big disparity.

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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:23 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

Nice stats. I don't really agree with removing any results just because they were beatdowns - I mean that FO final happened - but it still is interesting to see how close they are point-wise. Supports the idea that one of the reasons Rafa has been so dominant in the head-to-head is that Federer often has problems converting on the big points against him.

Edit:

Federer BP stats: 69/191 - 36%, his YTD average is 39%
Rafa BP stats: 85/195 - 44%, his YTD average is 49%

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Last edited by Roamed; 05-31-2010 at 10:56 PM.
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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:25 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

Both are great players.

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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:39 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

interesting stuff.

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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:39 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

Not all too curiously, the one breakpoint Federer converted (out of the 17 he earned) in RG 07 was when Nadal served to the deuce court.
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:46 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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Originally Posted by Arakasi View Post
Point W-L: Nadal leads 2306-2257 (50.5%)

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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:50 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

I should probably mention I got the initial breakdowns from a thread started by Nicholas Warino over at tennis warehouse.
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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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Originally Posted by Voo de Mar View Post
Voo you're the stats man. Do you know of any other head to heads which display the same disparity between points and match wins?
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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:53 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

It's a good try. Bold too

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post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:56 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

because nadal can win the points that matter
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post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 10:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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It's a good try. Bold too
Don't misunderstand me. I wasn't trying to subtly explain away the Federer-Nadal head to head. It clear for all to see: 14-7. No analysis can remove that.

I was just interested in Federer's failure to translate points into match wins and was wandering if this was common.
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post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 11:06 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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Originally Posted by Johnny Charmer View Post
Nadal simply plays the big points better.

Look up the break point stats and you'll see a pretty big disparity.
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because nadal can win the points that matter
Yes but usually the player who can win the big points can also win the majority of the smaller points as well, especially when you consider it's over 21 matches.

I don't think even Nadal plays matches often in which he wins the big points but loses >50% of the smaller points. Of course it happens once in a while but not with this large a sample.

In general, the player winning the big points is winning the majority of points big or small.
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post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 11:06 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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Originally Posted by Arakasi View Post
Voo you're the stats man. Do you know of any other head to heads which display the same disparity between points and match wins?
My emoticon in the post above referred to two things:

1) I never thought about H2H's from the perspective of points won in all by two players (but it's interesting)

2) I wonder does it make any sense showing a percentage in this case with such big numbers; it's a little bit confusing, it's only 50.5% but the difference of points won to lost is 49 -> it's like 6-0 6-0 without a lost point by a player who won the match.

Replying on your question: I don't know.

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post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-31-2010, 11:23 PM
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Re: Federer and Nadal's Head to Head Stats

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Originally Posted by Voo de Mar View Post

2) I wonder does it make any sense showing a percentage in this case with such big numbers; it's a little bit confusing, it's only 50.5% but the difference of points won to lost is 49 -> it's like 6-0 6-0 without a lost point by a player who won the match.

Replying on your question: I don't know.
Or, less than 1 point per set. The difference between the occasional 40-0 vs a 40-15 service-hold.


I think the stats are remarkable. Would love to see a breakdown by surface, by serve/return and, most of all, by deuce/ad court.
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