I think we're all aware that despite Federer clearly trailing in his head to head with Nadal that he actually has won nearly as many points as Nadal in their matches. This is the breakdown for their 21 matches to date:
Match W-L: Nadal leads 14-7 (66.7%)
Point W-L: Nadal leads 2306-2257 (50.5%)
So Nadal has won two thirds
of his matches against Roger despite only leading by 49 points
. But it occured to me that this statistic might be even more drastic if we remove the one outlier in all their matches: the FO 2008 beatdown. This is the only match in which either player won so convincingly and I think it distorts the figures somewhat. The breakdown looks as follows once you eliminate this match:
Match W-L: Nadal leads 13-7 (65%)
Point W-L: Nadal leads 2214-2205 (50.1)
If that isn't the clearest indication of Nadal's mental domination over Federer, especially on the big points, I don't know what is. Nadal has managed to win 13/20 matches with only 9 more points in total. Remarkable.
In fact, if you eliminate Federer's next most comphrehensive loss, points-wise, to Nadal (the 6-4 6-4 loss in Monte Carlo 07) we would have:
Match W-L: Nadal leads 12-7 (63.2%)
Point W-L: Federer leads 2146-2141 (50.1)
Federer would lead the points total but trail clearly in head to head. All credit to Nadal for being a mental juggernaut but I think this statistic is ridiculous. How on earth do you win more points than an individual but still lose to them repeatedly?
I wonder if this bizarre statistic is only present in the Nadal-Federer head to head? I know that Roger has a tendency to lose matches despite winning more points not only against Nadal. Does anyone know of any other tennis head to head in which this kind of thing has happened over the course of several matches? I have a feeling this may be more common than I think. It would interesting if someone did this for an even more lopsided head to head. Maybe points breakdowns tend to be about 50% for most head to heads?
Just so I don't incite a tard war I'll add this disclaimer: obviously by manipulating the figures and eliminating matches I could make the gap even bigger for either player but in truth I don't think it's statisically relevant to eliminate any match other than F0 2008; and that match only because it is very out of the norm for their head to head. I only removed Monte Carlo 07 to further demonstrate the discrepancy between points/match wins, realistically it shouldn't be ignored.