Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 01:57 AM Thread Starter
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Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

By ranking number one on Monday 24th May (before Roland Garros), Federer guarantees himself 285 total weeks at the top spot of the ATP rankings, only 1 week shy of the all time record held by Sampras.

If he ranks number one before Halle and Queen's he'll be on 286 weeks
Before 's-Hertogenbosch, Eastbourne = 287 weeks.

Since Federer reached the quarter-finals of Roland Garros, only Nadal has a chance of overtaking him immediately after Roland Garros (before Halle and Queen's) and thus prevent Federer from holding this record.

Here are the point totals of Federer and Nadal after Roland Garros.

Federer 8390
Nadal 7420* (semi-finals)

*7420 if losing semi-finalist in Roland Garros
7900 if losing finalist in Roland Garros
8700 if winner in Roland Garros

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Last edited by n8; 06-03-2010 at 11:19 PM. Reason: Updated to before Roland Garros semi-finals.
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post #2 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 01:59 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

I think he'll hang on, but just barely with Nole and Rafa right on his heels.

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post #3 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:15 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

How ironic would it be if he ends up with just one week less than Sampras.

Imo, total weeks at number 1 is a bigger record than the GS.
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post #4 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:17 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

it's his own fault for playing like a clown outside of Slams, he could have done much better in other tournaments, one thing is to be outplayed and lose in straights and another to choke away MP or lose momentum

if he breaks it, good for him
if he doesn't, well, he laid his bed

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post #5 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:19 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

Time to change the #1
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post #6 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:48 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

I think he will just manage to hold on to his ranking enough to overtake Pete by at least a week. I also expect Rafa to reclaim his #2 ranking and maybe overtake Roger some time after Wimbledon provided his knees stay healthy.

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post #7 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:55 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

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Originally Posted by piratesswoop View Post
I think he will just manage to hold on to his ranking enough to overtake Pete by at least a week. I also expect Rafa to reclaim his #2 ranking and maybe overtake Roger some time after Wimbledon provided his knees stay healthy.
Agreed.
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post #8 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 03:46 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

Depends on what he does at Estoril and Madrid. Early losses there will really put him in a precarious position. Nadal and Djokovic looking as if they will make it to the finals to defend their Rome points is bad news for Roger and his #1 chances. If Rafa wins Madrid and wins the French, or if Nole does so, they are going to be right there on the heels of Roger.

I'm not sure yet if he will hold on to the ranking, because it really all depends on his effort level in these non-majors, and how he feels on the court game wise and mentally. The ball is sort of in his court to do what he needs to do to win the matches necessary to keep his ranking. I definitely see Rafa at the very least being right at the heels of Roger for that #1 if not getting it back, throughout the summer, if he is healthy.
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post #9 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 04:38 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

If Djoker gets to #1, he better had won another slam by then
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post #10 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 05:38 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

I feel Nadal has a great chance at number 1. No points to defend until Canadian Open after the French Open, and based on his past results at Wimbledon that could be a free 1500-2000 points for him to not even to have to worry about defending. Roger has many points and Novak has been very up and down lately. It will be very interesting.
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post #11 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 08:54 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

How many threads will there be about that ?

The most #1 record reached thread

it's far from a certainty : if Nadal wins Roma, Madrid and the French Open, Federer needs to earn 1360 points to keep number 1 after Roland-Garros.

Probably he would need a French Open final for that. And I fear that even if his condition is not bad comparing to previous years, his confidence looks really hurt.

He also needs to get 1300 points more than Djokovic, and well, Djokovic has a good draw here : I don't underrate him.

Note that Fed can lose number 1 after Roland-Garros but take it back after Halle if Nadal doesn't keep on his streak in the Queens. In that case, he would beat this "famous" record.

Anyway, I think if Nadal wins all these tournaments, he will fully deserve taking back number 1

It's normal that number 1 players are young, it's not normal that old players like Federer are : they are only number 1 if the young competitors fail.

Sampras was lucky enough to have a few weeks at number 1 in the end of 2000 because the young competitors were not good enough yet (young Safin, Kuerten). Well good for him

If Federer is lucky about that because Nadal fails, well good for him as well

But the most important is the current situation : Nadal as number 1 would be perfectly normal

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Last edited by duong; 04-28-2010 at 09:18 AM. Reason: sorry it was 1360 points, not 1610
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post #12 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:01 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

I forget - does off season goes in the tally?

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post #13 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:01 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

if fed does not break sampras's record of 286 total weeks, then too bad, it is all his fault for playing like crap in MS tourneys these days, that is what happens.

it will be very interesting, a 3 man race between fed, nole and rafa for no.1, but between rafa and nole in pursuit of the no.1 ranking, at this point in time, rafa definitely has the upper hand here, but i certainly would not disregard nole as a contender for no.1 by any means.

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post #14 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:03 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

Quote:
Originally Posted by StatRacket View Post
things could get interesting if Federer loses early in Estoril but more importantly Madrid.
I would rather say that it mostly depends :

- on Nadal
- on the ability of Federer to reach the French Open final.

If Nadal wins Roma, Madrid and Roland-Garros, and Federer doesn't reach the French Open final, Federer would need all of these conditions to be number 1 after Roland-Garros :

- reach Madrid final
- reach Roland-Garros semifinal
- win one match in Estoril


If he reaches French Open final, then a final in Estoril or a quarterfinal in Madrid would be just enough.

If he's very near to these conditions, he would at least still have a chance of taking back after Halle and break the record.

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Last edited by duong; 04-28-2010 at 09:42 AM. Reason: sorry for my mistake : he doesn't need Estoril final + he would be just ahead, not shortly behind by 40 points
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post #15 of 266 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:05 AM
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Re: Federer's total weeks at number one record not a certainty

Quote:
Originally Posted by jrm View Post
I forget - does off season goes in the tally?
yes (which helps Sampras who was number 1 in more ends of years, while Federer only started being number 1 in february)

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