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post #1 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 05:10 AM Thread Starter
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Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Hey. This is my first thread on the forum. I was thinking about Federer's record in deciding tiebreaks so I looked it up and finally made a thread about it. Although there's not really a point for all this, I thought I was kind of interesting.

Federer has played a total of 37 matches which have been decided in tiebreaks. He's won 21 of them and lost 16.

In 19 of those 21 matches won, Federer has won more points than his rival, in one he won just as many points (Halle 2006 vs. Rochus) and in the remaining one he actually won more points than his rival (Basel 2001 vs Lleyton).

In 9 of the 16 matches lost, Federer has also won more points than his rivals. In 2, he has won just as many points (strangely enough, those 2 are the last ones against Berdych and Marcos). So, Federer has actually lost more points than his rival in only 5 of those 16 lost matches.


Code:
R--------------vs. Player------------Ranking-----------Score--------------Year-----Tourney----% points won
						
R32	Guillaume*Raoux*(FRA)	71	W*6-7(4), 7-5, 7-6(3)	1999	rotterdam	51,79%
						
R16	Jerome*Golmard*(FRA)	63	W*6-7(6), 7-6(5), 7-6(5)	1999	marseille	50,42%
						
F	Marc*Rosset*(SUI)       	77	L*6-2, 3-6, 6-7(5)      	2000	marseille	49,44%
						
Q	Ivan*Ljubicic*(CRO)	69	W*6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5)      	2000	marseille	53,13%
						
S	Lleyton*Hewitt*(AUS)	9	W*6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6)      	2000	basel	49,78%

F	Nicolas*Escude*(FRA)	60	L*5-7, 6-3, 6-7(5)      	2001	rotterdam	50,22%
						
R16	Thomas*Johansson*(SWE)	25	W*7-6(3), 5-7, 7-6(7)	2001	miami	50,61%
						
R32	Marat*Safin*(RUS)       	2	W*4-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)      	2001	rome	50,59%
						
R64	Thomas*Johansson*(SWE)	24	W*7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(5)	2001	rome	51,32%
						
Q	Patrick*Rafter*(AUS)	10	L*6-4, 6-7(6), 6-7(4)	2001	halle	49,06%
						
R32	Nicolas*Kiefer*(GER)	39	L*3-6, 6-1, 6-7(4)      	2001	moscow	52,15%

Q	Andy*Roddick*(USA)      	16	W*3-6, 6-3, 7-6(5)      	2001	basel	51,41%
						
R32	Jiri*Novak*(CZE)        	40	L*4-6, 7-6(4), 6-7(2)	2001	paris	48,70%
						
Q	Albert*Costa*(ESP)      	9	L*6-7(4), 6-4, 6-7(7)	2003	miami	50,20%
						
S	Andy*Roddick*(USA)      	7	L*4-6, 6-3, 6-7(3)      	2003	canada	49,19%
						
R64	Scott*Draper*(AUS)      	114	W*4-6, 6-3, 7-6(10)	2003	cinci	53,27%
						
R16	Martin*Verkerk*(NED)	16	W*6-7(3), 7-6(12), 7-6(6)	2003	paris	52,07%
						
RR	Andre*Agassi*(USA)      	5	W*6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(7)	2003	TMC	50,21%
						
R16	Ivo*Karlovic*(CRO)      	59	W*6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4)	2004	gstaad	52,22%
						
W	Ivan*Ljubicic*(CRO)	19	W*5-7, 7-5, 7-6(5)      	2005	rotterdam	52,19%
						
R32	Ivo*Minar*(CZE)         	119	W*6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5)	2005	dubai	51,20%
						
R16	Juan Carlos*Ferrero*(ESP)	98	W*4-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)      	2005	dubai	51,98%
						
Q	Richard*Gasquet*(FRA)	101	L*7-6(1), 2-6, 6-7(8)	2005	MC	50,22%
						
RR	Ivan*Ljubicic*(CRO)	8	W*6-3, 2-6, 7-6(4)      	2005	TMC	52,02%

F	David*Nalbandian*(ARG)	12	L*7-6(4),7-6(11),2-6,1-6,6-7(3)2005	TMC	46,37%
						
F	Rafael*Nadal*(ESP)      	2	L*7-6, 6-7(5), 4-6, 6-2, 6-7(5)2006	rome	50,71%
						
Q	Olivier*Rochus*(BEL)	29	W*6-7(2), 7-6(9), 7-6(5)	2006	halle	50,00%
						
Q	Takao*Suzuki*(JPN)      	1,078	W*4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3)      	2006	tokyo	53,27%
						
S	Paradorn*Srichaphan*(THA)	54	W*6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5)      	2006	basel	51,30%
												
R16	Guillermo*Canas*(ARG)	55	L*6-7(2), 6-2, 6-7(5)	2007	miami	50,68%
						
F	Novak*Djokovic*(SRB)	4	L*6-7(2), 6-2, 6-7(2)	2007	canada	50,51%
						
S	Lleyton*Hewitt*(AUS)	20	W*6-3, 6-7(7), 7-6(1)	2007	cinci	52,89%
						
R32	Ruben*Ramirez Hidalgo*(ESP)	137	W*6-1, 3-6, 7-6(1)      	2008	MC	53,37%
						
R16	Ivo*Karlovic*(CRO)      	22	L*6-7(6), 6-4, 6-7(5)	2008	cinci	51,21%
						
Q	Jo-Wilfried*Tsonga*(FRA)	7	L*6-7(5), 6-1, 6-7(3)	2009	canada	52,28%
						
R32	Marcos*Baghdatis*(CYP)	33	L*7-5, 5-7, 6-7(4)      	2010	IW	50,00%
						
R32	Tomas*Berdych*(CZH)	20	L*4-6, 7-6(3), 6-7(6)    	2010	miami	50,00%

Last edited by andy neyer; 04-01-2010 at 04:39 PM.
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post #2 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 05:27 AM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

That's kind of interesting.

I think it would be more interesting if you split it into 2 categories: "Jesus Fed" and "pre-Jesus Fed". Otherwise it is like talking about Fed's head to head with Hewitt. Sure, it is close (I think it still is). But Hewitt has now lost to Fed about 20 straight times.

It still looks like even "Jesus Fed" lost more than I would have expected.
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post #3 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 05:47 AM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Surprised actually, 20-16 isn't bad. Thought it would be worse.

But I guess it's because his losses are more memorable. Then again, he has lost 6 of his last 8.
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post #4 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 05:50 AM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Btw, there's an important one missing.

Federer def. Roddick, Basel 2001, 3-6 6-3 7-6(5)

The very first of 21 meetings between Roger and RAndy.
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post #5 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 05:56 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Surprised actually, 20-16 isn't bad. Thought it would be worse.

But I guess it's because his losses are more memorable. Then again, he has lost 6 of his last 8.
Just checked and it's actually 21-15. I erroneusly included Mantilla's victory in Rome (which wasn't in a deciding tiebreaker) and like you pointed out, Fed's first win over Roddick wasn't considered.

Yeah, to be honest, I also thought it was going to be way worse than that. 21-15 is quite a decent record after all! Still, it's weird that Federer has lost 9 matches decided in tiebreaks after having won more points than his opponent whereas in all the matches he's won in deciding tiebreaks he's won more points than his opponents.

Last edited by andy neyer; 04-01-2010 at 06:10 AM.
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post #6 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 06:04 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Btw, there's an important one missing.

Federer def. Roddick, Basel 2001, 3-6 6-3 7-6(5)

The very first of 21 meetings between Roger and RAndy.
You're right.. I'll correct it right now
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post #7 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 06:15 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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Originally Posted by r2473 View Post
That's kind of interesting.

I think it would be more interesting if you split it into 2 categories: "Jesus Fed" and "pre-Jesus Fed". Otherwise it is like talking about Fed's head to head with Hewitt. Sure, it is close (I think it still is). But Hewitt has now lost to Fed about 20 straight times.

It still looks like even "Jesus Fed" lost more than I would have expected.
That's a good point.
Counting from Canada 2003 until then end of 2006 (the period in which he was more or less in his absolute prime, imo), Federer had an great 11-4 record which means that in the rest of the time he has actually had a rather mediocre 10-12 record.
Now he's actually carrying a 4-deciding tiebreak losing streak for the first time ever.

Last edited by andy neyer; 04-01-2010 at 04:34 PM.
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post #8 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 10:38 AM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Your first post is still incorrect, should be added:

Basel 2000, Hewitt
Masters 2005, Nalbandian

And removed Basel 2006, Gonzalez

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post #9 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 11:19 AM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

Correct me if I'm wrong Voo - but it seems that his 3rd set tiebreak record is not that much worse than his overall tiebreak statistics, which in percentage terms is the best on tour.
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post #10 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 12:01 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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Originally Posted by ApproachShot View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong Voo - but it seems that his 3rd set tiebreak record is not that much worse than his overall tiebreak statistics, which in percentage terms is the best on tour.
Yes, despite his last two defeats, Federer is still good in 3rd set tie-breaks - in this stats and in his TB record overall is above 60 % what is very good, actually his TB record overall is great - 65 %. But if we take into account his TB record of deciding sets (so, his two defeats in the 5th set TB too, Nalbandian and Nadal), I'd say he's decent - 55 %.

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post #11 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 12:09 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

BTW, I wonder which adjectives are the best to describe percentage concerning tie-breaks. This is my proposition (for at least 100 tie-breaks played in career):
more than 65% - great
more than 60% - very good
more than 55% - good
more than 50% - decent
45-50 % - rather weak
40-45 % - weak
below 40% - very weak

I'd apply the same gradation for TB in the deciding set and 5-setters with at least 20 matches taking into account.

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post #12 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 01:13 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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Originally Posted by Voo de Mar View Post
below 40% - very weak
Which adjective would you use for Seppi and his glorious tiebreak record (w/l):

10-17 in 2009 (37%)
7-20 in 2008 (26%)
Out of 27 tiebreaks, he won 7.

When I'll have time I'll do his deciding tiebreaks record. Should be fun.


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post #13 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 01:39 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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Originally Posted by Matyaz View Post
Which adjective would you use for Seppi and his glorious tiebreak record (w/l):

10-17 in 2009 (37%)
7-20 in 2008 (26%)
Out of 27 tiebreaks, he won 7.

When I'll have time I'll do his deciding tiebreaks record. Should be fun.
I'm afraid below 30% is pathetic

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post #14 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 02:23 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

BTW, Rafa is 8-8 in deciding sets tie breaks. Voo, who's got the best record? Moya? Karlovic?

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post #15 of 56 (permalink) Old 04-01-2010, 02:49 PM
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Re: Federer's record in deciding match tiebreaks

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BTW, Rafa is 8-8 in deciding sets tie breaks. Voo, who's got the best record? Moya? Karlovic?

Moya is a GOAT given the percentage Karlovic has won the most...

stroke <- point <- game <- set <- MATCH -> round -> tournament -> season -> career
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Aces

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