Federer has made it to another final (nothing new there) despite the fact that he is not even in the top 10 for Aces in the tournament. Now also think on the fact that he has as the least played more matches than anyone not named Cilic, Murray, or Tsonga to reach an ace number. So that's pretty amazing that even without many per se 'free points' on serve, that he has still won with such regularity.
For instance and just for comparison; We see the same doesn't translate to the womens game, at least for this tournament. As we see that the tournament winner had more than double the Aces of anyone else in the tournament. As aces leader Serena had 65, to ace runner-up Petrova's 29. Even tournament runner-up Henin was 3rd in aces, with all her troubles on serve.
It's not always the case with the women's game unless it's Serena or Venus winning the tournament.
As for Federer, his serve hasn't been good at all this year and he's not getting very many free points which, if he doesn't turn things around, will hurt him against Murray. Unlike last year, he doesnt hit the one up the T on the AD side this year, a serve which was probably his most effective over the past two seasons. I cannot remember the last time Federer was in the final of a tournament and wasn't in the top 5 or so in aces.