Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:
- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
Same things were said about Federer in 08 and then the beginning of 09, great players always bounce back.
Guys like Davydenko get hyped up when they get on a roll in three set tournaments, but there is a reason they have never won a grand slam, 2 weeks of intense 5 set matches is not an easy thing to accomplish physically and mentally.
Nadal will be fine, for how much longer remains to be seen, but hes shown some of his old tricks recently by getting a couple of solid results, the wins will come, he just has to get his confidence back, not an easy thing to do when you are on a 6 month streak of no tournament wins.