Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010 - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:05 PM Thread Starter
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Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:08 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
Same things were said about Federer in 08 and then the beginning of 09, great players always bounce back.

Guys like Davydenko get hyped up when they get on a roll in three set tournaments, but there is a reason they have never won a grand slam, 2 weeks of intense 5 set matches is not an easy thing to accomplish physically and mentally.

Nadal will be fine, for how much longer remains to be seen, but hes shown some of his old tricks recently by getting a couple of solid results, the wins will come, he just has to get his confidence back, not an easy thing to do when you are on a 6 month streak of no tournament wins.
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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:11 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches (he won 2 successive 5 hour matches last year)
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009 (He is the defending champion so knows how to win here)
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals (Nadal leads head to head 7-2)
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis (he won 2 successive 5 hour matches last year)
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko (possibly agree)
As above
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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:13 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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he won 2 successive 5 hour matches last year
After those 2 matches last year, to me he has not looked the same since, that can kill your body overnight on a hardcourt, especially player Nadal's style.
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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:40 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

"Nadal leads head to head 7-2"

And Federer led Davydenko 12-0 before Davydenko won twice in a row.
But I do get your point.
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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:45 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

exhaustion is no longer a factor for me, after what he did last year here
plus the schedule isn't as fullpacked as last year in the men's competition
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:52 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

-Del Potro
-Davydenko
-Djokovic
-Federer
-Soderling


Those are the best 5 reasons in my book. In that particular order.

Roger Federer | Benoît Paire| Stanislas Wawrinka | Nick Kyrgios
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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-15-2010, 10:59 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
pathetic post

Quote:
-Del Potro
-Davydenko
-Djokovic
-Federer
-Soderling

Those are the best 5 reasons in my book. In that particular order.
This is more reasonable one

Rafael Nadal
CAREER GOLDEN GRAND SLAM
♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔
66 Titles | 27 Masters 1000 |Olympic Games Singles Gold Medalist | 139 Weeks at no.1
3 year end no.1 | 4 Davis Cups | 739 singles match wins
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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-19-2010, 02:46 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by born_on_clay View Post
pathetic post
Pathetic, ey?

He has gone 1-9 against top 10 players since April 2009.
He hasn't beaten a top10 player in a grand slam since Australian Open 2009.
Can he really beat three top 10 players for this Grand Slam?
I highly doubt it!
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-19-2010, 12:36 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Pathetic, ey?

He has gone 1-9 against top 10 players since April 2009.
He hasn't beaten a top10 player in a grand slam since Australian Open 2009.
That's of course the truth

Quote:
Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Can he really beat three top 10 players for this Grand Slam?
I highly doubt it!
Of coure he can. Every match is different and you have to take the into consideration the fact Rafa was injured twice in 2009 not mentioning his mental problems


Quote:
Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
I'm sorry but I don't even want to think about commenting this post...



p.s. I want you to know that I personally don't think Rafa will defend his title As much as I would like it to happen I'm trying to be reallistic

Rafael Nadal
CAREER GOLDEN GRAND SLAM
♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔♔
66 Titles | 27 Masters 1000 |Olympic Games Singles Gold Medalist | 139 Weeks at no.1
3 year end no.1 | 4 Davis Cups | 739 singles match wins

Last edited by born_on_clay; 01-19-2010 at 12:43 PM.
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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-19-2010, 12:40 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by tennisphilia View Post
Sure, he's the #2 seed and the defending champion, but Nadal is not the same player as he was last year when he won his first Australian Open. My five reasons why he will not win the Australia Open 2010:

- He will not be able to take the toll of the Australian heat and the 5-set matches
- He hasn't won a tournament since April 2009
- He'll lose to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals
- If he does beat Murray in the quarters, he'll be exhausted that he'll have no energy against del Potro in the semis
- If he does reach the finals, he'll be beaten by either Djokovic, Federer, or maybe even Davydenko
The reasons about the fysique are ofcourse nonsense. It's Nadal where we're talking about, he is mister fysique.

And I guess he won't lose to Murray, H2H is 7-2.

The second reason is a significant one though, but maybe he'll be only more eager because of this.
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post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-19-2010, 01:07 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

Every one of Nadal's title-less streaks so far has ended. I doubt this one will be different. It may not end here, but only if he runs into an in-form Del Potro, Djokovic, or Davydenko, or in-form Federer or Murray playing out of his skin.

"There is no such thing as 'the world'." - Enoch Powell.
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-19-2010, 03:55 PM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

Nadal will win unless someone plays better than him. I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I wouldn't be surprised if he lost to one of the top guys either. And so far the playing conditions seem to suit him.
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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-23-2010, 07:59 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by Mechlan View Post
Nadal will win unless someone plays better than him. I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I wouldn't be surprised if he lost to one of the top guys either. And so far the playing conditions seem to suit him.
He's going to lose in the quarterfinals to MURRAY. That is, if he makes it past Karlovic. I like Nadal too - but I'm just being realistic.
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post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-23-2010, 08:36 AM
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Re: Five Reasons why Nadal will not win AO 2010

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Originally Posted by Ad Wim View Post
The reasons about the fysique are ofcourse nonsense. It's Nadal where we're talking about, he is mister fysique.

And I guess he won't lose to Murray, H2H is 7-2.

The second reason is a significant one though, but maybe he'll be only more eager because of this.
Not sure why people keep bringing up that H2H. 5 of those wins came before Murray had even won his first Masters Title. They are 2-2 since then. Using that H2H is like using Hewitt's wins over Federer to demonstrate how evenly matched they are.

That said, Murray needs to get past Isner before he even gets a shot at Rafa.
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