That is correct, but it will not apply this time. Sod is more motivataed to still try to qualify for London. Nole played too much tennis of late. So Sod will take this one as he is the fresher and more motivated player at the moment. Kudos to Nole for the 73rd victory of the season. Signs of improved fitness.
Being a Soderling fan, I hate to disagree with you but I do. :S
Djoko will probably take it. Sod doesn't seem to like this surface, and Nole is an accomplished player. I see him as the favorite here.