Re: Federer @ RG vs Nadal@ US Open
Federer has only ever beaten Nadal on a clay court 2 times in 11 meetings. No matter whether they played on the surface in Paris, Hamburg, Madrid or the top of Everest. Federer has never beaten Nadal on a clay court in a best of 5 sets match.
Nadal has beaten Federer on a hard court 3 times in 6 meetings. Again, no matter whether it was indoors, outdoors or underwater. Nadal HAS beaten Federer on a hard court in a best of 5 sets match.
Also consider the fact that there are more threats to Federer on a hard court then there are to Nadal on a clay court. Since January '08, Nadal has only lost to Ferrero and Federer on clay. In the same time period, Federer has lost to Djokovic, Murray, Fish, Roddick, Simon, Karlovic and Nadal on hard.
Federer will be able to handle another defeat to Nadal at RG this year without affecting him too much mentally (unless he gets triple bagelled). However, if Federer wins RG, I wouldn't put it past him to win both Wimbly and the US Open aswell, seeing as winning RG would signify Fed finally growing a pair.
Most likely scenario - Nadal wins RG, most possibly defeating Federer or Djokovic in the final. If Federer loses to Nadal again at Wimbledon, I would have serious doubts about him being able to beat Nadal should they meet at the US Open, purely because Nadal has taken each of Federer's crowns, one by one. (Wimbledon, No 1 ranking, Aus Open).
In summary, Federer must beat Nadal at RG and/or Wimbledon, or else he should pray for death come US Open time. Well, either that or pray that Nadal draws Dabul in R1 at Flushing Meadows and gets schooled.
Can't believe I spent 10 minutes writing all that BS