Yes, thats a valid point, but Nole also had his best clay court results this year so far.
And also, that 3 setter 4 hours match in Madrid is more than a 5 setter 6:2 2:6 6:3 7:6......and so on.....
Are you telling me that Novak will be the favorite if it goes to the fifth set? He'll probably have no legs left. Novak will indeed need to win the first 2 sets and wait for Rafa to stumble. Unfortunately, the surface will be much different. No altitude and Rafa will serve a couple of bagels I am afraid. He likes Roger and Novak so much he'll give them one each.