Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older) - Page 36 - MensTennisForums.com

View Poll Results: Are players peaking at older ages in tennis now than in the past?
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post #526 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 05:02 AM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

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Not at all... I of course meant 50% rounded up. You can not throw million coins and get 51% heads...
Yes you can Both 0% and 100% heads are possible, with an infinitesimal (but existing) probability.
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post #527 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 11:13 AM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Well you have to get pretty lucky.

As an example, the odds to get 50.35% heads is one in trillion (10^12)...

That's roughly same odds as Donald Young winning French Open.
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post #528 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 11:29 AM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

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Well you have to get pretty lucky.

As an example, the odds to get 50.35% heads is one in trillion (10^12)...

That's roughly same odds as Donald Young winning French Open.
Pinpointing an exact result will always be unlikely. The odds of getting 500 000 heads and 500 000 tails is not much to write home about either.

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post #529 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 12:05 PM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

True. What I naturally meant was getting 503 500 heads OR MORE... The odds for that is 0.00000000000128375 aka roughly 1 in Trillion.
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post #530 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 12:15 PM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
Once Federer, Nadal, Novak, etc. retire, the average will decrease, a fortiori - the result of younger players taking control. The Big 4 is just too good for the rest of the field (or is the rest of the field mediocre? That's where the real debate must be), at the moment.
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post #531 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-03-2013, 12:31 PM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

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What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
My slam winning age stats in previous page would suggest that it's simply a normal cycle.

For example Rosewall was winning slams aged 35+ in early 1970's. After which in 80's we got the ALL-TIME 3 youngest slam winners in Chang, Becker and Wilander. Nadal is 5th youngest first time slam winner ever - winning slams in one's teens is an exception rather than the norm.

Last edited by MrMarble; 12-03-2013 at 12:47 PM.
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post #532 of 534 (permalink) Old 12-04-2013, 03:07 AM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

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Ok. Let's look at this dilemma from historical perspective. How rare is this current rise in age?

As it happens, I have made these graphs about men's slam winning ages for entire history of tennis:



You can notice trends from above as well... but it's little bit easier to see if we look at the same graph by decade:



As we can see, slam winning age appears to correlate with top 100 age graph and the rise since 90's is pretty identical.

However what is interesting is noticing that current slam winning age isn't high at all - it's pretty average historically speaking. So maybe this thread is much ado about nothing...
This /thread.
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post #533 of 534 (permalink) Old 07-01-2014, 10:08 PM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

So we've finally got another teenager in the top 100 (will be 66 after Wimbledon). So it's clearly not as impossible as some believe. Just need a few more players with titanium testicles.
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post #534 of 534 (permalink) Old 07-01-2014, 11:20 PM
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Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Indeed. This just shows that the players aged 20-25 are a step behind the players born in the previous few years, rather than just being about age. It happens. Amazing players aren't born at regular intervals.

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What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
Once Federer, Nadal, Novak, etc. retire, the average will decrease, a fortiori - the result of younger players taking control. The Big 4 is just too good for the rest of the field (or is the rest of the field mediocre? That's where the real debate must be), at the moment.
IMO, the overall age is getting older because players are retiring later. Injuries that used to lead to players throwing in the towel can be better managed these days. Players in general take better care of themselves, so they should be able to last longer. The increased prize money means more top players can afford their own physio, and there's a lot more to go around the rest.

Things like Novak's shoulder injury on Friday. He was able to head straight off and get an MRI on it, confirming there wasn't any damage. In the past, he'd have had to guess if could risk further injury by playing with it. Some players would play on when they shouldn't have.

I also think the Big 4 are 10-15 year's worth of top players all born within five years of each other.
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