Which upset is more likely tomorrow? - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?
Monfils over Federer 45 39.13%
Djokovic over Nadal 70 60.87%
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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 08:11 PM Thread Starter
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Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Mind you, I posed the question in a chat with Garber on ESPN today, at http://*****.espn.go.com/chat/chatES...id=20784#june5

***** = p r o x y .... not sure why they blanked that out.

It is the 8th question from the bottom. He said he thinks Monfils winning is more likely. Interesting.


Here is the exchange:
Dmitry (Pittsburgh, PA): Greg, In your view, which upset is more likely: Djokovic over Nadal, or Monfils over Federer? Thank you.

Greg Garber: (12:51 PM ET ) Dmitry (any relation to Tursinov?): Actually, call me crazy, but I'd say Monfils has a better chance. He's got the big strokes AND he retrieving ability to hang with Federer. The way Nadal is going, Djokovic will be lucky to get a set.
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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 08:17 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

I would one is as likely as the other..........

Check "The Weather Channel" and see what the temperature is supposed to be in hell on Friday.
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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 08:57 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Monfils over Fed

Go Andy!

So very very proud to be a fan of Mr Andy Murray Wimbledon Champion 2013

Double Grand slam champion. Olympic Gold Medalist. Holder of 9 Masters 1000 events # legend
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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 09:04 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

most likely monfils over federer.
Nole has 0.00000000 % chances of winning.

Ivo Karlovic
David Nalbandian
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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 09:12 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Both or none.

Djokovic always plays big finals against mugs.
This year: Tsonga, Fish, Wawrinka, ...
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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 09:15 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins.

I like a lot of players.
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 09:24 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clara Bow View Post
I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins.
negative. Nole is toast tomorrow and he knows it. couldnt care less about the girly man. he has 12 slams and that is enough. Nadal will slam the door shut on him here forever in the finals. consider the damn "window" for Fed closed here for good. i am tired of hearing about the bloody window anyway.

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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 09:28 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

on betfair

Nadal 1.25
Federer 1.11

http://www.menstennisforums.com/show...&postcount=378

Quote:
Originally Posted by FormerRafaFan View Post
That will be the last victory of Rafa for quite some time.. With his joke mentality and pathetic game, I hope the disgusting player loses every single match next season. He's disgraceful. He should just retire. He's a joke.
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(10) Corey Feldman vs. (12) scarecrows
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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:22 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarecrows View Post
on betfair

Nadal 1.25
Federer 1.11
Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean?
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:25 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmit424 View Post
Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean?
that means that, according to bookmakers and to gamblers, Federer is bigger favourite to win his match than Nadal. So Djokovic's chance to cause the upset is bigger than Monfils', always according to bookmakers and gamblers

http://www.menstennisforums.com/show...&postcount=378

Quote:
Originally Posted by FormerRafaFan View Post
That will be the last victory of Rafa for quite some time.. With his joke mentality and pathetic game, I hope the disgusting player loses every single match next season. He's disgraceful. He should just retire. He's a joke.
Quote:
Originally Posted by l_mac View Post
(10) Corey Feldman vs. (12) scarecrows
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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:26 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmit424 View Post
Not to sound dumb, but I've never better or really looked at odds like that, so could you (or someone) explain what those numbers mean?
Basically it means that accoring to the odds-setters (on Betfair the odds are set not by the odds-makers, but by the punters) - Nadal has 80% chances to win, while Fed has 90%
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post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:27 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clara Bow View Post
I must disagree with Greg Garber and say Nole over Rafa is more likely.

To the OP- sorry about the Penguins.
No worries, not much of an NHL fan... In fact, I'm embarrassingly out of the know on the Penguins... Lol, we moved to Pittsburgh from Cincinnati a few couple ago, and people at my university, when they found out I'm Russian, would always tell me how great Malkin is... I was like, "Yeah, yeah, he's good." That's all I would say (because I didn't know who Malkin was) and so eventually someone was like, "Dmitry... you really have no idea who Malkin is, do you?" ... "Umm... Nope, I do not "
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Ah, alright, thanks for the betting explanation, guys. According to my statistics, here are some more odds then (if Fed has a 90% of winning and Nadal an 80%, as according to those sites):

Chance of Nadal/Federer final: 72%
Chance of Federer/Djokovic final: 18%
Chance of Nadal/Monfils final: 8%
Chance of Djokovic/Monfils final: 2%

Yes, looks like a Nadal/Federer final.
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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:39 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

Monfils is a huge mug. His chance for tomorrow is about 5.36423x10^-89.

Faker's chance are the limit of that with x instead of 89 when x is close to infinite.
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post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-05-2008, 10:44 PM
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Re: Which upset is more likely tomorrow?

From the ESPN chat:

Bonnie: Bull through is an excellent image. Nadal has gored all the would-be matadors so far.

Love that.

*edit*

Bad news for Roger. Bud Collins just picked him to win over Monfils.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24969547/


"What kind of shape am I in now? Well round is a shape." said Roddick with a laugh. "I had a very detailed retirement plan, and I feel like I've met every aspect of it: a lot of golf, a lot of carbs, a lot of fried food, and some booze, occasionally — I've been completely committed ... The results have shown."


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Last edited by tangerine_dream; 06-05-2008 at 10:57 PM.
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