Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:39 PM Thread Starter
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Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

When will Federer relinguish the no. 1 spot ?

He is now at 6425+125(MC 2008 QF)=6550.
I don't see him going past QF in any clay court event this year, so let's suppose he will reach quarters in every tournament from now on. This means:
125+125+250=500
He needs to defend 75(Rome)+500(Hamburg)+700(RG)=1275

So, after RG, we'll have Roger at 6550-1275+500=5775.


Let's take Nadal now, and suppose he will win every clay event he enters.
This means:
5455+500(MC 2008)+150(Hamburg gain over 2007 final)=6105,
so he could be no. 1
after RG, but ONLY if he wins every event,
quite hard to imagine seeing the current form
of Ferrer, Djokovic, Davydenko or Nalbandian.
More realistic would be to think he will skip Barcelona or Hamburg.
If he skips Barcelona and wins everything, he will be the new no. 1 after RG. If he skips Hamburg, not yet


Let's take Djokovic now:
He is at 4725-200(he will lose Estoril 2007)=4525.
If he wins every clay court event he enters, after RG he will be at:
4525+1500+1000=7025, minus what he needs to defend: 125+125+450=700,
so at 6325.
The realistic approach puts him with finals in Rome, Hamburg and win in MC, but
only with SF in Roland Garros, where 5 setters will put him down.
So, the realistic approach puts him at around 5300 after RG, still no. 3 in the world.


So, based on the fact that no one can imagine Nadal or
The Djoker could produce maximum points during the clay swing,
I think Roger will not reluinguish the no. 1 spot before Wimbledon.

What do you think guys ?

Last edited by fsoica; 04-24-2008 at 04:47 PM.
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post #2 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:44 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

It'll be a close battle for sure and all three have a chance to be number 1 at the end of RG.
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post #3 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:45 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

too many ifs
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post #4 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:46 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

Let the battle begin!
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post #5 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:46 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

no
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post #6 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:46 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

I wouldn't waste my time quantitating possibilities of matches I really can't tell.

The top is too heavy without anyone dominating at all so everything is possible.
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post #7 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:47 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

You bet! If Djokovic keeps getting cakewalks draws like he has so far this year, Roger will lose his #1 to the Serbian superlucky guy. Sam Querrey! LOL! I cannot believe how many easy draws Nole is getting. Poor roger... he plays Nalby while Nole plays some american kid on clay! Shambolic
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post #8 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:47 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

One thing is for sure: All three has a shot at number one ranking. A very realistic shot!
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post #9 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:49 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

With a little help.

'Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don’t matter and those who matter don’t mind.'

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post #10 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:51 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

I think Federer will do better than that on clay even not being in the best form... not just quarters/maybe semis/finals or win...
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post #11 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 04:54 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gnaz View Post
You bet! If Djokovic keeps getting cakewalks draws like he has so far this year, Roger will lose his #1 to the Serbian superlucky guy. Sam Querrey! LOL! I cannot believe how many easy draws Nole is getting. Poor roger... he plays Nalby while Nole plays some american kid on clay! Shambolic
If you win the tournament- you beat everyone in the field.

Nole has AO and IW. ( he beats roger at AO- lucky draw?)
Fed has only Estoril
Nadal hasn't won any

Go figure whom you give ranking points?
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post #12 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 05:10 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gnaz View Post
You bet! If Djokovic keeps getting cakewalks draws like he has so far this year, Roger will lose his #1 to the Serbian superlucky guy. Sam Querrey! LOL! I cannot believe how many easy draws Nole is getting. Poor roger... he plays Nalby while Nole plays some american kid on clay! Shambolic
Girl, not again.

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post #13 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 05:11 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

Roger will play St Polten to keep #1
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post #14 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 05:15 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoiledEgg View Post
Roger will play St Polten to keep #1
This is a good one

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post #15 of 26 (permalink) Old 04-24-2008, 05:18 PM
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Re: Will Federer lose no. 1 position after RG ?

If he truly loses before the semifinals in every clay court event, Roger would have made a grand total of 1 (!) MM final in the last seven months. Not such a travesty to lose your #1 ranking then. I don't think it's likely - nor do I imagine the pig will win everything (but at least that appears possible) but it could happen.

Still, more than 4 years on the trot - quite a run. Who would have thought that Steffi Graf's record of 186 weeks would ever fall, and that it would be a man to do it ! After all, in the 70s 80s and 90s women climbed to #1 for decades (lol) at a stretch and the more competitive men switched rankings on a monthly basis.
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