When will Federer relinguish the no. 1 spot ?
He is now at 6425+125(MC 2008 QF)=6550.
I don't see him going past QF in any clay court event this year, so let's suppose he will reach quarters in every tournament from now on. This means:
He needs to defend 75(Rome)+500(Hamburg)+700(RG)=1275
So, after RG, we'll have Roger at 6550-1275+500=5775.
Let's take Nadal now, and suppose he will win every clay event he enters.
5455+500(MC 2008)+150(Hamburg gain over 2007 final)=6105,
so he could be no. 1
after RG, but ONLY if he wins every event,
quite hard to imagine seeing the current form
of Ferrer, Djokovic, Davydenko or Nalbandian.
More realistic would be to think he will skip Barcelona or Hamburg.
If he skips Barcelona and wins everything, he will be the new no. 1 after RG. If he skips Hamburg, not yet
Let's take Djokovic now:
He is at 4725-200(he will lose Estoril 2007)=4525.
If he wins every clay court event he enters, after RG he will be at:
4525+1500+1000=7025, minus what he needs to defend: 125+125+450=700,
so at 6325.
The realistic approach puts him with finals in Rome, Hamburg and win in MC, but
only with SF in Roland Garros, where 5 setters will put him down.
So, the realistic approach puts him at around 5300 after RG, still no. 3 in the world.
So, based on the fact that no one can imagine Nadal or
The Djoker could produce maximum points during the clay swing,
I think Roger will not reluinguish the no. 1 spot before Wimbledon.
What do you think guys ?