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post #1 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:01 AM Thread Starter
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Odds agaist Nadal on clay

Hello there. I am new here but I have read some stuff in this site for a while now. I just wanted to contribute with some odds for Federer against Nadal on clay only counting statistics from their previous meetings on clay, that is not depending on current form, the weather, the surface or how they matchup. Let me explain, we have 7 meetings between them on clay, in those 7 matches 26 sets was played, 8 were won by Federer and the rest by Nadal. Because Federer has won 31% of sets played, it should give Federer a 31% chanse to win a set against Nadal in future events where they face each other on clay. I think that because they have played each other so many times in quite a short time span the statistical ground for this kind of odds calculation is quite accurate.

So if they face each other in another RG final even with Federers current form if these odds are right and Federer has a 31% to win each set against Nadal the odds for the outcome of the match would be...

Federer dft Nadal in straight sets 3.0%
Federer dft Nadal in 4 sets 6.2 %
Federer dft Nadal in 5 sets 8.5 %

Federer dft Nadal 17.7%

Nadal dft Federer in straight sets 32.8%
Nadal dft Federer in 4 sets 30.6%
Nadal dft Federer in 5 sets 18.9%

Nadal dft Federer 82.3%


So this would mean Federer would have to play 4 straight RG finals against Nadal from now on to statisticaly be more than 50% to win a RG, that would give him a 54% chanse to win 1 out of the 4 finals.

So the odds are certanly agaist Federer but with more than 1 in 6 chanse to win against Nadal everytime they face each other in best of 5 I would say that his chanses are real but slim. Most other players like Djokovic have never won a set against Nadal on clay and therefor have 0% chanse to defeat Nadal only looking at their history and I would not be surprised if the real odds of Djokovic defeating Nadal on clay was less than 5% (Specialy taking into consideraion the manner Nadal has humiliated the serb in previous encounters) .

Nadals odds to win RG this year looking at his history against the rest of the tour should be more than 85% as few players except Federer has the skills to take a set from him. Lets say he wins 49 out of 50 matches on clay then he should have a 0.98 sqrt 7 odds to win RG which would give him a 86.8% odds to win RG. This is not taking into consideration that his defeats on clay has come when he was extremly tired against Federer and Andreev and that he has never lost in a best of 5 match. Real odds should be 90-95%, if his odds are 90% then his chanses to win another 4 straight RGs (that is if he continues to dominate the tour like today and never gets injured) would be 65%. I would say betting anything which gives more than 1.2 times the money on Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris is a good bet.

Ofcourse we have some unproven opponents like Davydenko who has only played one close match against him and Nalbandian who seems to handle Nadals topspin with unusual ease but never seems to get in Nadals side of the draw on clay. Mathematicaly you cant really get odds against these players, you probably would need a tennis brain to count the odds. I can personaly say that if either of those players where to face Nadal I would not bet on Nadal unless I got a good 1.5 times the money bet.

Finaly I would like to congratulate you all for the nice tennis discussions I have read here without contributing anything. I hope you dont find this too boring or take it too seriously, just some superficial number analysing from my side to kill some time.

Last edited by Pigsarestupid; 04-22-2008 at 01:17 AM.
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post #2 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:03 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

You can do all the calculations you want, friend, but at the end of the day, Nadal is going to win RG and it would be in everyone's best interest to pound him at these 1.7 outright odds he is getting.

Nice math, though

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post #3 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:05 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

Nice calculations...statictics can be used to fool anyone though. Very intersting anyway...thanks
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post #4 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:07 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

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Originally Posted by Blaze-2004 View Post
You can do all the calculations you want, friend, but at the end of the day, Nadal is going to win RG and it would be in everyone's best interest to pound him at these 1.7 outright odds he is getting.

Nice math, though

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post #5 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:25 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

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Originally Posted by Pigsarestupid View Post
Hello there. I am new here but I have read some stuff in this site for a while now. I just wanted to contribute with some odds for Federer against Nadal on clay only counting statistics from their previous meetings on clay, that is not depending on current form, the weather, the surface or how they matchup.. . . . . . .
Beethoven used to say: "Force -which is One- always wins over Number, which doesn´t have unity..."
That´s why statistics can´t prove anything.
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post #6 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:29 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

I have every year the last 4 years played some 200-500 dollars on Federer winning wimbledon with good 1.6-2 times the money. Last year I made the bet 150 dollars on Nadal winning RG for even better odds. I think this year I will bet for the same duo. Federer has a 2.3 odds for winning wimbledon but his form is not bad enought for him to lose more than 2 sets against any player on grass. Nadal has a chanse to defeat him but seriously his own odds to get to a final sould be less than 1 in 3.
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post #7 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:31 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

Excellent first post

He did say that these are just numbers in his post.
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post #8 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:34 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

Statistics are of very dubious use in anything but hard sciences (and even here, statistics can be abused to favor a certain interpretation). The social sciences are more rationalizing than predictive (i.e. we can try to understand what happened but not really determine what will happen), because human nature is not necessarily rational and because these systems are so complex (chaotic?). You can't predict anything using statistics.

It's better to deal with things qualitatively here and accept that Nadal is the best claycourt player in generations and has a very, very high chance of sweeping all the claycourt tournaments he plays in.

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post #9 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 01:36 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

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Originally Posted by Aloimeh View Post
Statistics are of very dubious use in anything but hard sciences (and even here, statistics can be abused to favor a certain interpretation). The social sciences are more rationalizing than predictive (i.e. we can try to understand what happened but not really determine what will happen), because human nature is not necessarily rational and because these systems are so complex (chaotic?). You can't predict anything using statistics.

It's better to deal with things qualitatively here and accept that Nadal is the best claycourt player in generations and has a very, very high chance of sweeping all the claycourt tournaments he plays in.
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post #10 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:12 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

No offense, but I think your post is flawed since the moment you mix cold facts with betting odds and opportunities, as in a tennis bet you should consider way more facts than those you gave (in this particular example, match-up varies with different weather condtions, status of the clay layer, apart from obvious tiredness factor, form etc)

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Originally Posted by Pigsarestupid View Post
I would say betting anything which gives more than 1.2 times the money on Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris is a good bet.
Bullshit and that´s where the flaws appear more clearly for a non-betting person


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Originally Posted by Pigsarestupid View Post
Finaly I would like to congratulate you all for the nice tennis discussions I have read here without contributing anything. I hope you dont find this too boring or take it too seriously, just some superficial number analysing from my side to kill some time.
Not boring but can´t take it seriously when you try to use those data alone for betting, anyway it´s a much better thread than the average in here, congrats
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post #11 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:23 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

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No offense, but I think your post is flawed since the moment you mix cold facts with betting odds and opportunities, as in a tennis bet you should consider way more facts than those you gave (in this particular example, match-up varies with different weather condtions, status of the clay layer, apart from obvious tiredness factor, form etc)
That would create too many variables and make it all too subjective and complicated, I wanted to make a strictly objective analyse of the odds which clearly needs to be improved with more subjective observations as current form and confidence, fatigue, weather, surface. I thought this could work as a good base for those more subjective observations which clearly will be needed whatever the future will bring us, these statistics means not much by itself but can be valuable when taking other factors into consideration.
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post #12 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:27 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

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Originally Posted by Pigsarestupid View Post
That would create too many variables and make it all too subjective, I wanted to make a strictly objective analyse of the odds which clearly needs to be improved with more subjective observations as current form and confidence, fatigue, weather, surface. I thought this could work as a good base for those more subjective observations which clearly will be needed whatever the future will bring us, these statistics means not much by itself but can be valuable when taking other factors into consideration.
If so, I think you would have saved a lot of time it you had just written this


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post #13 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:29 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay


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post #14 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:30 AM
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

JV is on fire with this pics
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post #15 of 24 (permalink) Old 04-22-2008, 02:51 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Odds agaist Nadal on clay

I hope I am not sounding too much like a gambler without any passion for tennis. Because I have alot of passion for tennis and gambling came long after my passion for tennis was born.
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