No offense, but I think your post is flawed since the moment you mix cold facts with betting odds and opportunities, as in a tennis bet you should consider way more facts than those you gave (in this particular example, match-up varies with different weather condtions, status of the clay layer, apart from obvious tiredness factor, form etc)
I would say betting anything which gives more than 1.2 times the money on Nadal lifting the trophy in Paris is a good bet.
Bullshit and that´s where the flaws appear more clearly for a non-betting person
Finaly I would like to congratulate you all for the nice tennis discussions I have read here without contributing anything. I hope you dont find this too boring or take it too seriously, just some superficial number analysing from my side to kill some time.
Not boring but can´t take it seriously when you try to use those data alone for betting, anyway it´s a much better thread than the average in here, congrats