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The Federer Decline Thread

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#1 ·
An interesting piece from Tom Perotta

Relax Federer faithful, it's only March

by Tom Perotta
Special to ESPN.com


No, dear fans of Roger Federer, the sky isn't falling. The No. 1 ranking is not in jeopardy just yet. It isn't time for your man to do something drastic, like hiring Brad Gilbert as a coach, shaving his head or asking Wilson to design him a new racket or some new strings. He doesn't need any encouragement from Tiger Woods, who has been tightening his grip on the title of "most dominant athlete in the world." He doesn't need to change his technique or his strategy or his training methods. One loss to Andy Murray at a small tournament in Federer's de facto home of Dubai doesn't doom a career.

Still worried? That's reasonable enough. Federer looked flat in Australia, understandable considering the food poisoning he had before the tournament began. It was also recently revealed the Swiss had mononucleosis -- unbeknownst to him at the time -- Down Under. However, before he played Murray, he said he was fit and eager to play. He seemed ready to make a statement, that statement being, "I'm Roger Federer, and you are not." He had to have been confident despite not playing in five weeks, since he had won in Dubai in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 -- and lost in the final in 2006.

This would be his first appearance since losing to Novak Djokovic, the man most people peg as the next No. 1 player in the world (the confident Djokovic is no doubt one of those people). It was the Swiss' first chance to remind his rivals who runs the tour. Instead, Murray was only reminded that Federer's forehand occasionally disappears for games at a time.

Perhaps you're not worried about the Murray match, but something else? You're concerned that Federer has a long year ahead of him. He's scheduled to play more tournaments than usual, plus the Olympic Games in Beijing. He also has more good players to contend with than at any other point in his career. In four years as the No. 1 player in the world, Federer hasn't had to overcome a lot of obstacles at one time. He's had no season-ending injuries, no personal tragedies and no consistent threats on the tour other than Rafael Nadal on clay and, the past two years, Nadal at Wimbledon.

In the next two years, he'll face adversity, in the form of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and maybe, just maybe, a player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, wherever he goes. He'll have to worry more about injury as he ages. He'll have to worry about losing motivation or confidence if he loses a few more matches. He'll have to deal with the pressure of being two major titles away from Pete Sampras' record of 14 -- so close, but still quite far away considering how abruptly a dominant tennis career can end (a 25-year-old John McEnroe won two majors in 1984 but couldn't win another one in his final eight years on the tour).

Federer has a lot on his mind, and a lot left to accomplish, but there's no cause for worry. In tennis, confidence comes and goes quickly. Remember how things looked in November? Federer dominated his last three matches at the Masters Cup and Djokovic ended the year with five consecutive losses and seemed destined for a slump in 2008.

Andy Murray wasted no time derailing Roger Federer's hopes of getting back on track in Dubai.
A little more than three months later, Djokovic is the Australian Open champion and taken seriously when he makes absurd comments, like: "Considering the results this year, I expected Murray to win." No doubt, Murray was going to have a chance, but Djokovic expected Murray to win? Really? What results was he looking at? Couldn't have been that first-round loss Murray suffered at the Australian Open to Tsonga. Maybe it was his first-round loss to Robin Haase, ranked No. 94 in the world, in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. A convincing performance indeed.

There was a lot to dislike about the way Federer played against Murray. He returned terribly (he didn't win a single point against Murray's first serve in the third set, 0-for-14) and he sprayed a lot of forehands. He was aced 10 times -- a credit to Murray but rare against Federer (Andy Roddick usually won't ace Federer that often in three sets).

Still, there was a lot to like, too. Federer frequently attacked the net, as he did in Shanghai last year. He served well in the first and third sets. He seemed to move well, which wasn't the case by the end of the Australian Open. Why doubt that he'll return to the form he had just a few months ago? He's had cold streaks before and come out of them just fine. Remember Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri? Canas beat Federer twice last year and Volandri beat him once. By the end of 2007, did those losses mean anything at all?

While the early loss in Dubai deprived Federer of a few useful warm-up matches leading up to Indian Wells, it might also help him. He can now fly to the United States sooner than he might have planned for the Sampras exhibition next week. Last year, Federer lost his first match at Indian Wells, in the second round, after winning it the previous three seasons. He stands to gain a lot of ranking points if he does well. He could gain a few more in Miami, where he lost in the fourth round. If he wins both tournaments and performs well at Estoril, Portugal, where he didn't play last year, he'll have a cushion over Nadal in the rankings that the Spaniard won't be able to top without a Federer flop at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, or a sensational hard-court season from Nadal (which has yet to happen). Djokovic has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks, too, and he's still 1,300 points behind Federer.

If Sampras double-bagels Federer at their exhibition Monday night, maybe then Federer fans will have something to worry about. Otherwise, remember that it's only March. You might end up remembering this season as the best of Federer's career.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine.
 
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#6 ·
My career is not in decline, says Federer

My career is not in decline, says Federer

By Larry Fine

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - World number one Roger Federer dismissed suggestions his career was in decline and said he would use recent defeats as motivation after recovering from a virus.

The Swiss player lost in the first round in Dubai last week by Briton Andy Murray, his first match since defeat by eventual champion Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semi-finals in January.

"In Switzerland there is a little too much speculation my career is over," the 26-year-old Federer told a news conference before Monday's 6-3 6-7 7-6 victory over former world number one Pete Sampras in an exhibition match at Madison Square Garden.

"People just need to know I'm healthy and happy and not miserable and down and out."

Federer pulled out victory in the good-natured contest by 8-6 in the final set tie-breaker before a crowd of around 19,000 at the Garden, including world number one golfer Tiger Woods, the Swiss champion's friend.

Federer, the 12-times grand slam singles champion, competes at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, California later this week. He was told he was suffering from glandular fever after the Australian Open.

"Honestly, losses like this motivate me more than anything," said Federer. "Trying to come back, trying to prove I'm still the one to beat.

"I just want to show I can do it over and over again."

The back-to-back defeats dented Federer's aura of invincibility and fed the confidence of those younger rivals who have seen him reign as number one for a record 215 consecutive weeks.

LOVE COMPETING


Within two grand slam titles of Sampras's record haul of 14, Federer said his affection for tennis was greater than ever.

"I love competing on center courts all over the world. So many people are happy when I get there. It touches me. I love to practice more and more now," he said.

"What I enjoy most are the matches, the pressure, the fans, center court. I hope that's going to stay with me as long as possible."

Federer said he was looking forward to competing at the Beijing Olympics in August and future Games.

"The (London) Olympic Games in 2012 is something I'm looking forward to, and go from there. See how I feel with my fitness, my motivation."

Federer may have made his worst start to a season in eight years but Sampras was confident the Swiss would soon be winning again.

"In a lot of ways Roger has created this sort of monster of being unbeatable," said the 36-year-old American.

"If you lose a match here, lose a match there, people have the assumption he has lost his edge, lost his dominance. I don't look at it like that at all.
"He'll play Indian Wells and he'll play Miami (in two weeks) and do fine at those events. When it comes down to it at the big, big events, I think he'll be the guy standing with the trophy."
(Editing by Ed Osmond)

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/breakingnews/feedstory/0,,-7373657,00.html
 
#204 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

My career is not in decline, says Federer

By Larry Fine

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - World number one Roger Federer dismissed suggestions his career was in decline and said he would use recent defeats as motivation after recovering from a virus.

The Swiss player lost in the first round in Dubai last week by Briton Andy Murray, his first match since defeat by eventual champion Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semi-finals in January.

"In Switzerland there is a little too much speculation my career is over," the 26-year-old Federer told a news conference before Monday's 6-3 6-7 7-6 victory over former world number one Pete Sampras in an exhibition match at Madison Square Garden.

"People just need to know I'm healthy and happy and not miserable and down and out."

Federer pulled out victory in the good-natured contest by 8-6 in the final set tie-breaker before a crowd of around 19,000 at the Garden, including world number one golfer Tiger Woods, the Swiss champion's friend.

Federer, the 12-times grand slam singles champion, competes at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, California later this week. He was told he was suffering from glandular fever after the Australian Open.

"Honestly, losses like this motivate me more than anything," said Federer. "Trying to come back, trying to prove I'm still the one to beat.

"I just want to show I can do it over and over again."

The back-to-back defeats dented Federer's aura of invincibility and fed the confidence of those younger rivals who have seen him reign as number one for a record 215 consecutive weeks.

LOVE COMPETING


Within two grand slam titles of Sampras's record haul of 14, Federer said his affection for tennis was greater than ever.

"I love competing on center courts all over the world. So many people are happy when I get there. It touches me. I love to practice more and more now," he said.

"What I enjoy most are the matches, the pressure, the fans, center court. I hope that's going to stay with me as long as possible."

Federer said he was looking forward to competing at the Beijing Olympics in August and future Games.

"The (London) Olympic Games in 2012 is something I'm looking forward to, and go from there. See how I feel with my fitness, my motivation."

Federer may have made his worst start to a season in eight years but Sampras was confident the Swiss would soon be winning again.

"In a lot of ways Roger has created this sort of monster of being unbeatable," said the 36-year-old American.

"If you lose a match here, lose a match there, people have the assumption he has lost his edge, lost his dominance. I don't look at it like that at all.
"He'll play Indian Wells and he'll play Miami (in two weeks) and do fine at those events. When it comes down to it at the big, big events, I think he'll be the guy standing with the trophy."
(Editing by Ed Osmond)

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/breakingnews/feedstory/0,,-7373657,00.html

Shut up FedMug, you're done.

pretty much sums up the story of the last 5 years.....
 
#7 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

MTF says his career is over so he should accept the facts.
 
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#16 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

Lol, he's got to be the first player in history who can lose 2 matches in a row, one a grandslam semi-final, and have people screaming that his career is over.



SO TRUE:worship:
 
#13 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

Should have thought about that before making your name "VolandriFan".
 
#21 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

I don't think Fed is over at all. I think he will continue to do very well in the slams -- meaning he will contend for the title and win some but not all. He will in a year or two enter the downside of his career though, I think. Maybe wishful thinking? :lol:

Anyway, this was a classic Federer quote: "I love competing on center courts all over the world. So many people are happy when I get there. "

He sounds more and more like Serena everyday. :lol:
 
#22 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

OK, Roger, say it enough times and you might actually start believing it.

I'm kidding of course. I don't think his career is in decline either. Way too early to tell. We'll know more after Wimbledon.
 
#23 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

Well, it's certainly not like the other players have suddenly caught up with him. Federer's level has dropped somewhat lately due to lack of match practice, motivation, health problems, etc. When he gets back to his normal self I don't see anyone challenging him for the no.1 spot for quite a few years yet. The other players don't seem able to sustain a high enough level over a long period of time.
 
#24 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

yeah such losses motivate him. Lies if they were motivating him he would be on practice court working as hard as ever not playing exhibition matches only to earn some more cash
 
#25 ·
Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

Roger playing the MSG event is good for tennis. He's the ambassador of the sport and has other obligation then just maintaining #1 ranking.
 
#28 · (Edited)
A Post and Some Figures Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

This post was found in the guestbook of Rogerfederer.com. and I think it is a very informed post. Of course, all arguements are debatable. But me being not the most eloquent and informed person, i thought i'll share these two posts with everyone.

Probably should post this in one of those million 'roger demise' threads, but i do think that this is worthy of its own thread. Mods might disagree though. :lol:

but yeah, hope you guys think it's a good read. and feel free to disagree with it...just don't violently trash this thread. :lol:

TonyNathan said:
Any poster (or journalist) prematurely jumping to conclusions about Roger should look at the big picture and keep some perspective. Every great tennis player has had to overcome blips or slumps while they were the No. 1 player, and so will Roger soon.

Let’s look at the record of all year-end No. 1 players in the open era who have won at least 8 Grand Slam titles.

- Pete Sampras lost a minimum of 11 to 17 matches during each year he was No. 1, which was from 1993 to 1998 (in comparison, Federer lost only 4 to 9 matches each year he was No. 1). In 1995, Sampras ‘failed’ to win a title in 6 tournaments in a row (including four 1st round losses!). It was worse in 1997: Sampras ‘failed’ to reach a final in seven straight events, from Indian Wells hard court to Queens Club grass court (including three 1st round losses!). In his eight event, Sampras won Wimbledon and ended the year with 8 titles, 2 Slams, and remained No. 1 every week that year.

- In 1969, Rod Laver was No. 1 and won the Grand Slam of all four major championships. That year five of his Grand Slam matches went to five sets, and in two matches he was down two sets to love. During that year Laver also lost 16 matches and 14 tournaments outside the Slam events.

- While No. 1, Bjorn Borg lost twice in the 1st round to low-ranked players. In 1979, while at his peak, Borg lost in three tournaments in a row, including in the 1st round to No 105 Bruce Manson. Borg rebounded and won 9 more titles (for a total of 12 titles and 2 Slams as well as the Masters championship) and lost only 4 more matches in 1979. Borg remained No. 1 in 1980 and won 2 Slams as well as the Masters championship.

- While No. 1, Ivan Lendl failed to win a single title in the early part of 1987. He even lost in the second round of Tokyo to a No. 42 player and the semifinals of the Australian Open to a No. 24 player. Lendl’s first title finally came on Hamburg clay and he went on to finish the year with 7 titles, including two Grand Slam titles and one Grand Slam finals. He remained No. 1 throughout the year, despite the pressure from the other top 5 players in the world -- Stefan Edberg, Mats Wilander, Boris Becker and Jimmy Connors. Lendl slipped to No. 2 in 1988 to Wilander before regaining the No. 1 ranking again in 1989 at age 29. Lendl is second only to Roger Federer in having the best three-year and four-year match and tournament winning percentages since the ATP rankings started.

- Andre Agassi was No. 1 only in 1999. That year he went four tournaments in a row without winning a title, not once, but twice in different parts of the year. Of course, Agassi went through many other periods of ups and downs.

- Even Jimmy Connors had minor blips while he was No. 1, even though in the 1970s he benefitted by playing a lot of small tournaments (promoted by his own manager) which did not include most of the world’s top 30 players.

- John McEnroe won 7 Slam titles, but in 1983 the No. 1 McEnroe lost in four straight tournaments (Montreal, Cincinnati, US Open and San Francisco). In 1984, McEnroe remained No. 1 and set a single season record of losing only three matches. McEnroe was No. 1 in 1981, 1983 and 1984. In 1982, McEnroe did not win a title in 9 straight tournaments; from February to September (he did not win a Grand Slam title that year) and temporarily lost the No. 1 ranking to Jimmy Connors, before McEnroe rebounded the following year. So McEnroe’s blips in 1982 and 1983 basically did not affect him the following seasons.

Roger is just 26. There is no magical age when a top tennis players suddenly loses his effectiveness. Lendl finally became No. 1 at age 25 and remained No. 1 for four of the five years until he was 29 years old. The age of the No. 1 tennis player has been going up and down over the last 40 years. In 1968, Laver was 31 years; 1974, Connor 22 yrs; 1975, Ashe 32 yrs; 1977, Borg 21 yrs; 1982, Connors 30 yrs; 1987, Lendl 27 yrs (in 1989, Lendl was 29 yrs; 1993, Sampras 22 yrs; 1998, Sampras: 28 yrs; 1999, Agassi 29 yrs; 2001, Hewitt 20 yrs; 2007, Federer 26 yrs. There is not much age difference between 29-year Agassi in 1999 and 30-year Laver in 1968, or 20-year Hewitt in 2001 and 21-year Borg in 1977.

Info on mononucleosis from the Merck Manual and other sources.
http://tinyurl.com/2h5x8n
http://tinyurl.com/36ert8
http://tinyurl.com/5qn4z
http://tinyurl.com/2jx2bl
http://tinyurl.com/3c6am4

Any RF.com member is welcome to repeat this info as needed. If I had not been distracted by the dripping of all that Swiss chocolate, I might have included the blips of more No. 1 players.
*deleted because elessar suggested it and hopefully is now more GM appropriate*

:)
 
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#46 ·
Re: A Post and Some Figures Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

form TonyNathan

Roger is just 26. There is no magical age when a top tennis players suddenly loses his effectiveness. Lendl finally became No. 1 at age 25 and remained No. 1 for four of the five years until he was 29 years old. The age of the No. 1 tennis player has been going up and down over the last 40 years. In 1968, Laver was 31 years; 1974, Connor 22 yrs; 1975, Ashe 32 yrs; 1977, Borg 21 yrs; 1982, Connors 30 yrs; 1987, Lendl 27 yrs (in 1989, Lendl was 29 yrs; 1993, Sampras 22 yrs; 1998, Sampras: 28 yrs; 1999, Agassi 29 yrs; 2001, Hewitt 20 yrs; 2007, Federer 26 yrs. There is not much age difference between 29-year Agassi in 1999 and 30-year Laver in 1968, or 20-year Hewitt in 2001 and 21-year Borg in 1977.
Nothing in the original post by TonyNathan other than telling that #1 players could come back anytime. But how quickly? In one year tour, next one, or nothing at all? The post already told us the examples.

While Fed is fighting through his fitness and trying to gain more trophy this year, someone can also be better and take his crown in the end. Just like Lendl when he slipped to No. 2 in 1988. If Fed's fall is too low, than no way back for him. Anyway he's still on top, but the young gunners seem to be more deadly right now and he's been suffering in many departments.
 
#32 ·
Re: Two Posts Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

The first post makes sense and it seems to be based on actual facts. A good reminder through numbers for anyone getting excited about Roger's decline. The second one is some kind of emotional plea and not very convincing:lol:
 
#33 ·
Re: Two Posts Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

I fell asleep about halfway through the first one
 
#34 ·
Re: Two Posts Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

I fell asleep when I saw rogerfederer.com
 
#35 ·
Re: Two Posts Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

*sigh* to be frank...... i thought about the appropriateness of GM....but then.....there's all the other thousand threads......*sigh*
 
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